AMBASSADOR BRIEFS OPPOSITION ON RELEASE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000061 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KPAO BO SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR BRIEFS OPPOSITION ON RELEASE OF POLITICAL PRISONERS REF: A. A) MINSK 049 ¶B. B) MINSK 033 (NOTAL) ¶C. C) STATE 7203 (EXDIS) ¶D. D) MINSK 050 ¶E. E) MINSK 020 ¶F. F) MINSK 014 ¶G. G) MINSK 044 Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d). ¶1. (SBU) Participants: Belarusian Opposition -------------- --Yuriy Gubarevich, Deputy Chair, For Freedom Movement (FF) --Sergey Kalyakin, Chair, Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC) --Viktor Korniyenko, Deputy Chair, For Freedom Movement (FF) --Anatoliy Lebedko, Chair, United Civic Party (UCP) --Anatoliy Levkovich, Acting Chair, Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Gramada) (BSDP-G) --Igor Rynkevich, Deputy Chair, Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Gramada) (BSDP-G) --Igor Shinkarik, Deputy Chair, United Civic Party (UCP) --Vintsuk Vyachorka, First Deputy Chair-Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) U.S. Participants -------------- Ambassador Stewart DCM Jonathan Moore Embassy Interpreter and Notetakers Summary -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met with eight leading members of the Belarusian opposition January 25 to discuss the regime's recent release of political prisoners (refs A, D, G) and possible steps the USG would take in response if all are released. Opposition interlocutors expressed gratitude for the USG's stance on political prisoners and underscored that no relaxation of sanctions should take place until all political prisoners are free. They recommended that free and fair elections and registration of parties and civil society groups could be substance for an eventual dialogue on systemic change in Belarus. They also repeated a call for continued close coordination with the EU on any easing of sanctions. End summary. Release of Prisoners an Important First Step -------------- ¶3. (C) The Ambassador held a 90-minute meeting with eight representatives of the Belarusian opposition January 25 to discuss the regime's recent release of political prisoners. She noted that the USG had maintained contact with Belarusian authorities, in order to stress the need to release internationally recognized political prisoners. Two weeks ago, she added, the Embassy began to receive signals that increased USG sanctions could be bearing fruit. The release of some of the political prisoners (refs A, D, G) was a positive sign and in the coming days no new USG sanctions would be imposed. Should all internationally recognized political prisoners be released, some USG sanctions could be recalibrated; possible next steps were being discussed with the EU. She noted that the release of all political prisoners would be a big step, but just the first step toward systemic change on democracy and human rights. She said the release of all political prisoners would likely lead to an Assistant Secretary-level USG visit to Minsk to discuss the next steps in this process and the Embassy was interested in their input on priorities for these next steps. No Need to Change Strategy -------------- ¶4. (C) To a person, all interlocutors thanked the Embassy for its efforts and supported the USG position that no concessions or relaxation of sanctions should be made until all of the political prisoners are released. BSDP-G Deputy Chair Igor Rynkevich and others said that it was important to coordinate eventual USG steps with EU partners. Viktor Korniyenko, FF Deputy Chair, and Acting BSDP-G Chair Anatoliy Levkovich both noted that for the regime to release current political prisoners only to arrest new ones represented no progress. BPC Chair Sergey Kalyakin spoke for many when he MINSK 00000061 002 OF 003 said that he doubted the motives behind Aleksandr Lukashenko's decision to release political prisoners but said that it was a positive step that the opposition needed to take advantage of. BPF First Deputy Chair Vintsuk Vyachorka -- whose son is himself in temporary detention -- said that the release of all political prisoners did merit a reaction, and an incentive for further progress, but that it would be better to show the regime a carrot rather than to give it one. Next Steps -- Elections, Registrations and the Travel Ban -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) UCP Chair Anatoliy Lebedko, just released from 15 days of detention for participation in the entrepreneurs' protest January 10 (ref E),said that the 2008 parliamentary elections should be the top issue for the Belarusian authorities to address in any effort for systemic change, adding that these polls should be held to OSCE standards. According to Lebedko, the United Democratic Forces had prepared proposals to change electoral law and practice that should be part of any dialogue on this issue. Vintsuk Vyachorka added that authorities must not only register opposition candidates and permit observers, but must also include opposition representatives in electoral boards at the precinct, district and national levels. ¶6. (C) In addition to the elections, Lebedko noted that registration of political parties and NGOs and the application of travel bans against opposition activists were serious issues that should be included in any dialogue. Kalyakin reported hearing that the regime had relented and would not liquidate the BPC. (Note: Presidential Administration Foreign Policy Advisor Valentin Rybakov told Charge previously that the regime had in fact relented and would not liquidate the BPC, the Belarusian Helsinki Committee or the entrepreneurs' organization "Perspektiva" (ref B). End note.) ¶7. (C) Both FF Deputy Chief Yuriy Gubarevich and the BSDP-G's Levkovich noted that future steps should include an end to the use of blacklisting by employers as a tool of regime pressure against activists, noting that this was a popular threat during electoral campaigns. Levkovich said that dismissal from state employment and the seizure of work papers were powerful tools -- often as powerful as arrests -- that were used to discourage people from taking part in opposition activism, especially powerful in the regions. Need to Count All Political Prisoners -------------- ¶8. (C) Vyachorka and others noted that the GOB held some prisoners on criminal charges who had been jailed, or received stiff sentences, due to activism. FF's Korniyenko said that one task identified at a recent PACE session on Belarus was the preparation of an exhaustive list of all activists who had been detained or arrested. Both implied that international pressure must be maintained until all these prisoners were free. ¶9. (C) The Ambassador assured her interlocutors that the USG was closely monitoring the policing of demonstrations, the sentencing and pending appeal of journalist Aleksandr Sdvizhkov, and the travel ban (refs B, E, F). She reiterated that the USG saw the release of all Belarus' internationally recognized political prisoners -- the well-known list agreed to by the U.S. and the EU (Avtukhovich, Dashkevich, Leonov, Finkevich, Klimov, and Kozulin) -- as a first step that would demonstrate the regime's readiness for a dialogue on democracy and human rights, a dialogue that primarily should be between the authorities and the Belarusian people. She added that the USG's response to such a step would be limited, and that the authorities knew systemic change was necessary for the removal of the most serious USG sanctions. She thanked her interlocutors for their suggestions on possible next steps required as part of this systemic change for Belarus. In closing, the DCM added that any future senior USG visit that o ccurred would include meetings with freed political prisoners and the opposition, as well as with GOB representatives, so that a wide range of views would be heard on changes needed to further democracy and human rights in Belarus. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) While some of them might wish to append additional MINSK 00000061 003 OF 003 names to the existing list, leaders of the Belarusian opposition were pleased to hear the Ambassador reiterate that the USG would not relax sanctions in any way until all internationally recognized political prisoners are free. Their calls for coordination with the EU -- which the Ambassador assured them is taking place -- are just more evidence that the opposition sees international pressure as a key factor in the regime's decision to release the prisoners. Premature concessions, particularly by individual EU states, could eliminate any resolve that might exist within the regime for the systemic changes necessary in Belarus. Comment cont'd -------------- ¶11. (C) In truth, the actual release of the political prisoners, particularly former presidential candidate Aleksandr Kozulin, has the potential to affect the opposition, which has gotten somewhat distracted of late. While the leadership of Kozulin's BSDP-G would almost certainly be reorganized, the other party leaders might find themselves in the shadow of an active and vocal Kozulin. MOORE