JANUARY 21 PROTEST MAY FURTHER SHAKE REGIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000030 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2018 TAGS: PHUM PGOV PINR ECON BO SUBJECT: JANUARY 21 PROTEST MAY FURTHER SHAKE REGIME REF: A. MINSK 017 ¶B. 07 MINSK 875 Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) A large turnout for entrepreneurs' demonstrations planned for MINSK and the regions January 21 could convince the GOB to compromise over Presidential Order 760. Alternatively, weak attendance could embolden the regime to strengthen its already considerable crackdown against activists supporting the entrepreneurs. The opposition holds a much stronger hand than at any time in recent memory thanks to coordination and the ability to draw from beyond its relatively small pool of activists motivated primarily by non-economic values such as political freedom. End summary. January 21 Protest Size Will Affect GOB Strategy -------------- --- ¶2. (C) United Civic Party (UCP) Deputy Chair Yaroslav Romanchuk told Acting DCM that a large turnout at the entrepreneurs' demonstration planned for noon local time January 21 on October Square, which the Embassy will observe, will worry GOB leaders. Strategy think tank analyst Valeriy Karbalevich told Acting DCM that a large crowd would force Lukashenko to seek a compromise. Romanchuk predicted that light attendance would encourage the GOB to ratchet up its campaign of intimidation against entrepreneur leaders and other activists (septel). Difficult to Predict Turnout -------------- ¶3. (C) Neither Karbalevich nor Romanchuk would hazard a guess at the number of participants for the coming demonstration. Romanchuk noted that publicity for the upcoming event greatly exceeds that for January 10 (ref A), noting that 15,000 leaflets had been passed out at markets. Fellow UCP Deputy Chair Igor Shinkarik said that the party decided to use its own funds to print the leaflets because the event would be more significant than any last year. Romanchuk gauged entrepreneur support for the demonstration as strong. He pointed out that while before the NGO Perspektiva, one of the main organizers, collected miniscule dues with difficulty, now many fellow entrepreneurs offered extra cash to support the protest. Smaller Protests Planned for the Regions -------------- ¶4. (C) Romanchuk said that after internal debate, organizers decided to ask regional supporters to hold separate events outside of Minsk. Experience from the January 10 demonstration and events such as last year's European March (ref B) proves that authorities will block activists from coming to Minsk. Shinkarik speculated that the most prominent regional activist, leader of "For the Free Development of Entrepreneurship" Viktor Gorbachev, would likely face arrest before January 21. Criminal Charges Possible Against Lebedko and Shumchenko -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Romanchuk suspected that Lukashenko wanted someone besides youths to blame for the demonstrations. He said he believed an announcement by the Ministry of Internal Affairs that it was considering criminal charges against organizers was aimed at UCP leader Anatoliy Lebedko and Perspektiva Chair Anatoliy Shumchenko. Shinkarik said the Prosecutor General's office called UCP headquarters every morning this week. He also opined that actions against Lebedko in connection with the entrepreneurs' protests could fit with a larger GOB strategy to unseat him at the party's congress scheduled for April. GOB Repression Breeds Entrepreneurial Bedfellows -------------- --- ¶6. (C) Karbalevich found noteworthy the ability of Shumchenko and Gorbachev to overcome their personal animosities in organizing the demonstrations. With most entrepreneur leaders imprisoned and Karbalevich predicting all others soon to join them, Romanchuk informed Acting DCM that the remaining activists appointed Shumchenko's deputy, Olga Krumina, as the leader and worked out a chain of command. MINSK 00000030 002 OF 002 Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The imprisonment of dozens of activists and the lack of jazzy advertising -- we have yet to see a sticker about January 21 -- has not dampened expectations for a significant turnout. The concrete cause -- overturning Presidential Order 760 -- distinguished the demonstration on January 10 from other recent opposition events in two important ways. First, the average protestor attended for significant economic rather than idealistic reasons. Second, a real possibility for negotiation exists. ¶8. (C) As a very apolitical commentator (Acting Chair of the Belarusian Union of Entrepreneurs Aleksandr Kalinin) recently reminded us, a middle class could form the backbone of democratic society in Belarus. While that class is still small here, the opposition will have to figure out ways to target them more effectively on pocketbook issues in the future as well. MOORE