JANUARY 21 PROTEST MAY FURTHER SHAKE REGIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000030

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2018
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PINR ECON BO
SUBJECT: JANUARY 21 PROTEST MAY FURTHER SHAKE REGIME

REF: A. MINSK 017

B. 07 MINSK 875

Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
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1. (C) A large turnout for entrepreneurs' demonstrations
planned for Minsk and the regions January 21 could convince
the GOB to compromise over Presidential Order 760.
Alternatively, weak attendance could embolden the regime to
strengthen its already considerable crackdown against
activists supporting the entrepreneurs. The opposition holds
a much stronger hand than at any time in recent memory thanks
to coordination and the ability to draw from beyond its
relatively small pool of activists motivated primarily by
non-economic values such as political freedom. End summary.

January 21 Protest Size Will Affect GOB Strategy
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2. (C) United Civic Party (UCP) Deputy Chair Yaroslav
Romanchuk told Acting DCM that a large turnout at the
entrepreneurs' demonstration planned for noon local time
January 21 on October Square, which the Embassy will observe,
will worry GOB leaders. Strategy think tank analyst Valeriy
Karbalevich told Acting DCM that a large crowd would force
Lukashenko to seek a compromise. Romanchuk predicted that
light attendance would encourage the GOB to ratchet up its
campaign of intimidation against entrepreneur leaders and
other activists (septel).

Difficult to Predict Turnout
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3. (C) Neither Karbalevich nor Romanchuk would hazard a
guess at the number of participants for the coming
demonstration. Romanchuk noted that publicity for the
upcoming event greatly exceeds that for January 10 (ref A),
noting that 15,000 leaflets had been passed out at markets.
Fellow UCP Deputy Chair Igor Shinkarik said that the party
decided to use its own funds to print the leaflets because
the event would be more significant than any last year.
Romanchuk gauged entrepreneur support for the demonstration
as strong. He pointed out that while before the NGO
Perspektiva, one of the main organizers, collected miniscule
dues with difficulty, now many fellow entrepreneurs offered
extra cash to support the protest.

Smaller Protests Planned for the Regions
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4. (C) Romanchuk said that after internal debate, organizers
decided to ask regional supporters to hold separate events
outside of Minsk. Experience from the January 10
demonstration and events such as last year's European March
(ref B) proves that authorities will block activists from
coming to Minsk. Shinkarik speculated that the most
prominent regional activist, leader of "For the Free
Development of Entrepreneurship" Viktor Gorbachev, would
likely face arrest before January 21.

Criminal Charges Possible Against Lebedko and Shumchenko
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5. (C) Romanchuk suspected that Lukashenko wanted someone
besides youths to blame for the demonstrations. He said he
believed an announcement by the Ministry of Internal Affairs
that it was considering criminal charges against organizers
was aimed at UCP leader Anatoliy Lebedko and Perspektiva
Chair Anatoliy Shumchenko. Shinkarik said the Prosecutor
General's office called UCP headquarters every morning this
week. He also opined that actions against Lebedko in
connection with the entrepreneurs' protests could fit with a
larger GOB strategy to unseat him at the party's congress
scheduled for April.

GOB Repression Breeds Entrepreneurial Bedfellows
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6. (C) Karbalevich found noteworthy the ability of
Shumchenko and Gorbachev to overcome their personal
animosities in organizing the demonstrations. With most
entrepreneur leaders imprisoned and Karbalevich predicting
all others soon to join them, Romanchuk informed Acting DCM
that the remaining activists appointed Shumchenko's deputy,
Olga Krumina, as the leader and worked out a chain of command.


MINSK 00000030 002 OF 002


Comment
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7. (C) The imprisonment of dozens of activists and the lack
of jazzy advertising -- we have yet to see a sticker about
January 21 -- has not dampened expectations for a significant
turnout. The concrete cause -- overturning Presidential
Order 760 -- distinguished the demonstration on January 10
from other recent opposition events in two important ways.
First, the average protestor attended for significant
economic rather than idealistic reasons. Second, a real
possibility for negotiation exists.


8. (C) As a very apolitical commentator (Acting Chair of the
Belarusian Union of Entrepreneurs Aleksandr Kalinin) recently
reminded us, a middle class could form the backbone of
democratic society in Belarus. While that class is still
small here, the opposition will have to figure out ways to
target them more effectively on pocketbook issues in the
future as well.
MOORE