LUKASHENKO NEW YEAR'S ADDRESS - 2007 A BAD YEAR,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000003

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO NEW YEAR'S ADDRESS - 2007 A BAD YEAR,
FEW PROMISES FOR 2008

REF: A. 07 MINSK 008

B. 07 MINSK 1064

C. 07 MINSK 949

D. 07 MINSK 458

Summary
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1. (SBU) Lukashenko's 2007 New Year's Eve address -- by far
his most widely viewed speech each year -- stressed his
perennial themes of security and economic development despite
threats from abroad. In contrast with last year, however,
Lukashenko presented threats to Belarus as originating almost
exclusively in the West. End summary.

2007 Most Difficult in Nation's History Due to Enemies ...
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2. (U) Lukashenko's bluntest statement was a
characterization of 2007 as "the most complicated in the
history of our young state" followed by references to
"sanctions, torrents of lies and disinformation." With no
sense of irony, the dictator claimed that "leaders of several
countries, in order to draw attention away from their
problems, suddenly became worried about the situation in
Belarus." He argued that attempts at foreign democratization
lead to "endless political intrigue, corruption, economic
collapse and destruction."


3. (U) While Lukashenko mentioned the rise in energy prices,
he refrained from pointing a finger at Russia (unlike his
previous New Year's address (ref A)). In contrast to
vitriolic remarks December 30 (ref B),he did not name the
United States or in his address, but mentioned that the
countries pressuring Belarus were the same ones that
intervened in Iraq, Afghanistan and the former Yugoslavia.
He said that those who wished Belarus ill merely pushed
Belarus towards further unity and strengthened its
independence.

... But 2007 Achievements Over Fulfill the Five-Year Plan
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4. (U) Lukashenko's review of Belarusian achievements in
2007 covered familiar territory -- technical innovation, the
harvest, the birth rate, etc. Lukashenko noted an increased
birth rate in 2006 in passing during his previous New Years
address. This year's address devoted significant attention
to the topic, wavering from folksy "heartfelt gratitude to
our wonderful women" to the bureaucratic pronouncement that
"we already achieved the birth rate level which was only
forecast for the end of the current five-year plan (2010)."
(Note: Demographers note the increased rate results merely
from the increased number of women of childbearing age in the
population (ref C). End note.) Unlike last year, Lukashenko
did not mention Belarus' successes combating trafficking in
persons and trans-national crime.


5. (U) In international relations, Lukasehnko praised
Belarus' "multi-vector" foreign policy. He noted Venezuela,
China and Iran by name in extolling Belarus' increased
foreign trade and investment. The Non-Aligned Movement, in
contrast to 2006, did not merit Lukashenko's attention.

2008: The State Is Not Santa Claus
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6. (U) Introducing plans for 2008, Lukashenko quipped that
"of course, the state is not Grandfather Frost (the Soviet
version of Santa Claus),who can bring gifts and promises."
Lukashenko proclaimed 2008 the year of health, and said
efforts must be strengthened to develop medicine, education,
sport, healthy lifestyles, the environment and moral values.
Other proclamations, none of them new, seemed designed to
mute criticism. Without mentioning cuts to social benefits
(ref D),he claimed no one in need would go without
government assistance. He promised to create favorable
conditions for private business, but offered no specifics.
Lukashenko also said 2008 would see improvements in housing
and rural development. (Comment: It is no surprise that
there was no reference to 2008 elections for his rubber-stamp
parliament. End comment.)

Comment: Just Cosmetic Adjustments for 2008?
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7. (SBU) Lukashenko chose a formal setting for the

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presentation, speaking from behind his office desk rather
than next to his fireplace as he did in 2006. The move,
combined with assertions from his staff that Lukashenko would
work throughout the New Year holiday, suggests the regime
recognizes a need to counteract rising perceptions that the
government has run out of momentum. However, apart from
dropping the anti-Russian rhetoric, the content of the
address differed little from last year. Most Belarusians, no
matter how few glasses of sparkling wine they had consumed,
are unlikely to remember anything from this address to
distinguish it from ones of New Year's Eves past.
MOORE