Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08MINSK224
2008-03-31 09:57:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:
LUKASHENKO'S POPULARITY STABLE, BUT OPPOSITION TO POLICIES
how-toVZCZCXRO8729 PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG DE RUEHSK #0224/01 0910957 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 310957Z MAR 08 FM AMEMBASSY MINSK TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7070 RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KYIV 0108 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0381 RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1888 RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000224
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/UMB AND EUR/ACE
KYIV FOR USAID
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON SOCI PINR BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO'S POPULARITY STABLE, BUT OPPOSITION TO POLICIES
IS STRONG
REF: A. Minsk 008
B. 07 Minsk 1012
C. 07 Minsk 846
Summary
-------
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000224
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/UMB AND EUR/ACE
KYIV FOR USAID
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON SOCI PINR BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO'S POPULARITY STABLE, BUT OPPOSITION TO POLICIES
IS STRONG
REF: A. Minsk 008
B. 07 Minsk 1012
C. 07 Minsk 846
Summary
--------------
1. (SBU) According to independent nationwide polling data from
March 2008, while the popularity of Aleksandr Lukashenko remained
around 40 per cent, opposition to some of his regime's policies --
like benefit cuts, the travel ban and the introduction of atomic
energy -- was significant. Though down from December 2007 highs,
one fourth of respondents said their family's economic position
worsened in the past three months. Attitudes on union with Russia
or with the EU were unchanged. End summary.
Perceptions of Economy Improve Slightly
--------------
2. (SBU) Minsk's Independent Institute for Social, Economic and
Political Studies (IISEPS) conducted a nationwide public opinion
poll in March 2008, with a sample size of roughly 1500 respondents
and a margin of error of three percentage points. The median income
of respondents was BYR 435,000 (USD 205).
3. (SBU) When asked how their own economic situation had changed
in the past three months, twenty-five per cent of respondents said
their economic situation "got worse," roughly seven per cent fewer
than the December 2007 highs (refs A, B).
Sept. '07 December '07 March '08
Improved 16.6 10.8 15.7
Remained Same 67.1 55.3 57.6
Worsened 15.6 32.4 25.0
Don't Know/No 0.7 1.5 1.7
Answer
Responses on the overall direction of the country also improved
somewhat from December 2007, with just over fifty per cent of
respondents saying they saw Belarus on the "right path," a return to
September 2007 levels.
Sept. '07 December '07 March '08
Right Path 50.2 41.2 50.2
Wrong Path 34.2 39.3 34.5
Don't Know/No 15.6 19.5 15.3
Answer
Lukashenko's Popularity Stabilizes...
--------------
4. (SBU) According to the latest data, the steady decline of
Aleksandr Lukashenko's rating stopped, though a slight increase in
his popularity was not statistically significant. When asked, "If
elections for President of Belarus were held tomorrow, for whom
would you vote?" Aleksandr Lukashenko's rating hovered around 40 per
cent; the slight changes in support for other candidates were
statistically insignificant as well.
Sept. '07 December '07 March '08
A. Lukashenko 44.9 39.9 42.5
A. Milinkevich 12.3 9.8 8.8
A. Kozulin 3.2 3.7 5.2
S. Gaydukevich 1.3 1.9 0.5
S. Sidorskiy
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/UMB AND EUR/ACE
KYIV FOR USAID
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON SOCI PINR BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO'S POPULARITY STABLE, BUT OPPOSITION TO POLICIES
IS STRONG
REF: A. Minsk 008
B. 07 Minsk 1012
C. 07 Minsk 846
Summary
--------------
1. (SBU) According to independent nationwide polling data from
March 2008, while the popularity of Aleksandr Lukashenko remained
around 40 per cent, opposition to some of his regime's policies --
like benefit cuts, the travel ban and the introduction of atomic
energy -- was significant. Though down from December 2007 highs,
one fourth of respondents said their family's economic position
worsened in the past three months. Attitudes on union with Russia
or with the EU were unchanged. End summary.
Perceptions of Economy Improve Slightly
--------------
2. (SBU) Minsk's Independent Institute for Social, Economic and
Political Studies (IISEPS) conducted a nationwide public opinion
poll in March 2008, with a sample size of roughly 1500 respondents
and a margin of error of three percentage points. The median income
of respondents was BYR 435,000 (USD 205).
3. (SBU) When asked how their own economic situation had changed
in the past three months, twenty-five per cent of respondents said
their economic situation "got worse," roughly seven per cent fewer
than the December 2007 highs (refs A, B).
Sept. '07 December '07 March '08
Improved 16.6 10.8 15.7
Remained Same 67.1 55.3 57.6
Worsened 15.6 32.4 25.0
Don't Know/No 0.7 1.5 1.7
Answer
Responses on the overall direction of the country also improved
somewhat from December 2007, with just over fifty per cent of
respondents saying they saw Belarus on the "right path," a return to
September 2007 levels.
Sept. '07 December '07 March '08
Right Path 50.2 41.2 50.2
Wrong Path 34.2 39.3 34.5
Don't Know/No 15.6 19.5 15.3
Answer
Lukashenko's Popularity Stabilizes...
--------------
4. (SBU) According to the latest data, the steady decline of
Aleksandr Lukashenko's rating stopped, though a slight increase in
his popularity was not statistically significant. When asked, "If
elections for President of Belarus were held tomorrow, for whom
would you vote?" Aleksandr Lukashenko's rating hovered around 40 per
cent; the slight changes in support for other candidates were
statistically insignificant as well.
Sept. '07 December '07 March '08
A. Lukashenko 44.9 39.9 42.5
A. Milinkevich 12.3 9.8 8.8
A. Kozulin 3.2 3.7 5.2
S. Gaydukevich 1.3 1.9 0.5
S. Sidorskiy