DIVIDED THEY CAMPAIGN IN THE FALL

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 000197

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2018
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PINR BO
SUBJECT: DIVIDED THEY CAMPAIGN IN THE FALL

REF: MINSK 153

Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
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1. (C) Calls for a unified slate of opposition candidates in
fall parliamentary elections failed to dissuade an opposition
leader from organizing an alternate slate of candidates on a
so-called European list. So far candidates from the main
coalition slate, with a few exceptions, chose not to actively
prepare for elections, and some fear defections to the
European list driven by financial considerations. The
surfeit of potential opposition candidates does not denote
any more faith that the GOB will conduct free and fair
elections. Unfortunately, multiple opposition slates could
obscure regime fraud and prevent a meaningful post-election
protest. End summary.

Unified Opposition List to Face Off Against European List
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2. (C) In spite of the United Democratic Forces' (UDF)
standing invitation to other opposition leaders to run for
parliament on its unified list (reftel),Nikolay Statkevich
told A/DCM that he would help lead an alternate so-called
European list. He said he rejected the UDF's offer because
the coalition would not settle upon European integration as
its overarching message in the fall parliamentary campaign.
United Civic Party (UCP) Deputy Chair Yaroslav Romanchuk,
however, told A/Pol/Econ Chief that the UDF would not confirm
its main election themes until April.


3. (C) Statkevich said his European list already had 41
potential candidates (for the 110 constituencies) from Gomel,
Grodno and Vitebsk oblasts. Romanchuk said Statkevich let it
be known that the European list would have USD 400,000 in
international support for its candidates.

UDF Candidate Activity Minimal So Far
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4. (C) Sergey Alfer, a former UCP Deputy Chair, complained
that few UDF candidates were active so far. UCP Chair
Anatoliy Lebedko and Belarusian Party of Communists Head
Sergey Kalyakin began assembling their campaign teams,
according to Alfer. Also, in Gomel oblast the UDF organized
a recall campaign against a sitting MP.
Alfer presented three factors holding back candidates.
First, most lack resources. Second, those with day jobs fear
suffering repression from the regime before the election
season has even officially begun. Finally, most candidates
take their cues from the party leaders, whose preparations
still remain behind the scenes.

Will the European List Show Candidates the Money?
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5. (C) Alfer explained that further delay in finalizing the
approved campaign themes candidates should use would weaken
training for candidates that should begin in May. He did not
see funding for the campaign as the limiting factor.
Instead, the need for at least 100 volunteers in a district
to run a viable campaign meant that the UDF could only run to
win in 20 constituencies.


6. (C) Romanchuk, approved by the UDF to run in Grodno
oblast, said he would soon distribute flyers. Other
candidates still had no money, however, and he feared some
UDF candidates would defect to the European list due to the
promise of funding.

Contempt for Lukashenko Still a Uniting Factor
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7. (C) No one expects the regime to allow free or fair
elections. Lebedko clarified that if Lukashenko decides to
allow a token opposition presence into parliament a few
regional election commissions will receive instructions to
that effect. Statkevich noted Lukashenko would rig elections
through abuse of early voting procedures and falsified
protocols, and opined that the dictator would use opposition
participation to legitimize the vote.

Comment: Running to Win, or Going through the Motions?
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8. (C) We wonder why Statkevich wants to campaign if he
E
believes Lukashenko will use participation to legitimize his
illegal rule. The fact that Statkevich was more outspoken in
Strasbourg than in Belarus suggests the answer may lie in
impressing foreign donors. Unfortunately, splits in the
Belarusian opposition tend to mirror splits in the
international community's approach to assistance. That
European social democratic parties insist on directing funds
to sister parties bearing the same name ensures the continued
existence of several weak Belarusian social democratic
parties.


9. (C) We agree fraud will mar the elections.
Unfortunately, if multiple opposition candidates run in one
district, voters can be forgiven for believing that fraud did
not determine the outcome. That will make the UDF and other
opposition figures vulnerable to regime propaganda that they
are just losers looking for foreign grant money. On the
other hand, making a convincing argument that the regime
stole the election in at least a few districts would make it
harder on the regime and those arguing for a conciliatory
approach toward Lukashenko.
MOORE