KLIMOV HOPES TO SURVIVE TO SEE A DEMOCRATIC BELARUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000130 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2018 TAGS: PHUM PGOV PINR BO SUBJECT: KLIMOV HOPES TO SURVIVE TO SEE A DEMOCRATIC BELARUS REF: A. MINSK 120 ¶B. 07 MINSK 295 ¶C. 07 MINSK 029 Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Recently released political prisoner Andrey Klimov told Ambassador that Lukashenko could still release Aleksandr Kozulin. Klimov argued that Lukashenko grew tired of dependence on Moscow and would consider whether he could safely make a move toward the West. Klimov said those responsible for the disappearances called for his imprisonment. He noted he would try to stay out of jail for now, in part to concentrate on his health, but could seek to re-enter politics in March. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) This cable draws from a February 20 meeting between Klimov, who was released from prison February 15 (ref A) and Ambassador, with Acting Pol/Econ Chief also in attendance. Klimov on whether Lukashenko will Release Kozulin -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Klimov warned Ambassador not to take Lukashenko's recent remarks on political prisoner Aleksandr Kozulin at their face value. Klimov said that the statements were very likely made for Russian consumption before the informal CIS summit in Moscow February 21-22. Klimov Sees Lukashenko as Geopolitically Flexible -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Klimov encouraged the USG to keep up pressure on Lukashenko even if Kozulin is released. He said the West should demand free and fair elections, freedom of the press and other basic human rights, and that those responsible for disappearances be brought to justice. Klimov characterized Lukashenko's personality as resistant to democracy, but said the dictator would not mind reducing his dependence on Moscow. Lukashenko will look to see what guarantees he could obtain from the United States if he broke with Moscow, according to Klimov. ¶5. (C) Klimov suggested the first several months after Russian presidential elections would serve as the best time for Lukashenko to approach the West. Lukashenko might even find it expedient to organize trials of those who organized disappearances, according to Klimov. On the other hand, Klimov described Lukashenko as lacking a key advisor who could "bring ideas to him." The Real Reason for Klimov's Arrest -------------- ¶6. (C) Klimov admitted carelessness in writing the article that landed him in jail (ref B). He explained that his call for revolutionary action against the regime was not the real impetus for his arrest. Instead, naming those responsible for the disappearances brought a reaction from hardliners seeking to protect themselves. Klimov Plans to Stay Out of Jail for Now -------------- ¶7. (C) Praising Ambassador and the USG for their role in securing his freedom, Klimov told Ambassador that authorities released him unconditionally. His conviction may in fact be annulled. Still Klimov is ineligible to run for office because of his prior conviction (ref C). He would not run for parliament in any case, he said, because he still considers the body illegitimate after Lukashenko disbanded it in 1996. He did not rule out that Lukashenko would allow opposition members to win a minority of seats in the fall election, however. ¶8. (C) Klimov almost completed a rough draft for a book while in prison. He said he would revise it before publishing so he does not get convicted again. "That would be overkill," he joked. Living to See Democracy in Belarus -------------- ¶9. (C) Klimov may decide to re-enter politics as soon as March. He related that in the weeks ahead he plans to focus on family and improving his health, which he described as MINSK 00000130 002 OF 002 poor. He will seek medical attention and hopes to get better because he has "to live to see democracy." Comment: Overly Optimistic or Keenly Insightful -------------- -- ¶10. (C) One could hardly blame Klimov if much of his musings turn out to be colored by his joy at gaining his freedom. He certainly did what he could to stay informed in prison. Klimov reported that he had access to the independent newspaper "Komsomolskaya Pravda" while in prison. Reading Ambassador's call for the unconditional release of all political prisoners gave him moral strength, he said. ¶11. (C) His views on Lukashenko differ a good deal from typical opposition stereotypes that Lukashenko is incapable of change. The first test of Klimov's insights will come when Lukashenko finally decides whether to release the only prisoner more prominent than Klimov -- Aleksandr Kozulin. STEWART