KLIMOV HOPES TO SURVIVE TO SEE A DEMOCRATIC BELARUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000130

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2018
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PINR BO
SUBJECT: KLIMOV HOPES TO SURVIVE TO SEE A DEMOCRATIC BELARUS

REF: A. MINSK 120

B. 07 MINSK 295

C. 07 MINSK 029

Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Recently released political prisoner Andrey Klimov
told Ambassador that Lukashenko could still release Aleksandr
Kozulin. Klimov argued that Lukashenko grew tired of
dependence on Moscow and would consider whether he could
safely make a move toward the West. Klimov said those
responsible for the disappearances called for his
imprisonment. He noted he would try to stay out of jail for
now, in part to concentrate on his health, but could seek to
re-enter politics in March. End summary.


2. (SBU) This cable draws from a February 20 meeting between
Klimov, who was released from prison February 15 (ref A) and
Ambassador, with Acting Pol/Econ Chief also in attendance.

Klimov on whether Lukashenko will Release Kozulin
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Klimov warned Ambassador not to take Lukashenko's
recent remarks on political prisoner Aleksandr Kozulin at
their face value. Klimov said that the statements were very
likely made for Russian consumption before the informal CIS
summit in Moscow February 21-22.

Klimov Sees Lukashenko as Geopolitically Flexible
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Klimov encouraged the USG to keep up pressure on
Lukashenko even if Kozulin is released. He said the West
should demand free and fair elections, freedom of the press
and other basic human rights, and that those responsible for
disappearances be brought to justice. Klimov characterized
Lukashenko's personality as resistant to democracy, but said
the dictator would not mind reducing his dependence on
Moscow. Lukashenko will look to see what guarantees he could
obtain from the United States if he broke with Moscow,
according to Klimov.


5. (C) Klimov suggested the first several months after
Russian presidential elections would serve as the best time
for Lukashenko to approach the West. Lukashenko might even
find it expedient to organize trials of those who organized
disappearances, according to Klimov. On the other hand,
Klimov described Lukashenko as lacking a key advisor who
could "bring ideas to him."

The Real Reason for Klimov's Arrest
--------------


6. (C) Klimov admitted carelessness in writing the article
that landed him in jail (ref B). He explained that his call
for revolutionary action against the regime was not the real
impetus for his arrest. Instead, naming those responsible
for the disappearances brought a reaction from hardliners
seeking to protect themselves.

Klimov Plans to Stay Out of Jail for Now
--------------


7. (C) Praising Ambassador and the USG for their role in
securing his freedom, Klimov told Ambassador that authorities
released him unconditionally. His conviction may in fact be
annulled. Still Klimov is ineligible to run for office
because of his prior conviction (ref C). He would not run
for parliament in any case, he said, because he still
considers the body illegitimate after Lukashenko disbanded it
in 1996. He did not rule out that Lukashenko would allow
opposition members to win a minority of seats in the fall
election, however.


8. (C) Klimov almost completed a rough draft for a book
while in prison. He said he would revise it before
publishing so he does not get convicted again. "That would
be overkill," he joked.

Living to See Democracy in Belarus
--------------


9. (C) Klimov may decide to re-enter politics as soon as
March. He related that in the weeks ahead he plans to focus
on family and improving his health, which he described as

MINSK 00000130 002 OF 002


poor. He will seek medical attention and hopes to get better
because he has "to live to see democracy."

Comment: Overly Optimistic or Keenly Insightful
-------------- --


10. (C) One could hardly blame Klimov if much of his musings
turn out to be colored by his joy at gaining his freedom. He
certainly did what he could to stay informed in prison.
Klimov reported that he had access to the independent
newspaper "Komsomolskaya Pravda" while in prison. Reading
Ambassador's call for the unconditional release of all
political prisoners gave him moral strength, he said.


11. (C) His views on Lukashenko differ a good deal from
typical opposition stereotypes that Lukashenko is incapable
of change. The first test of Klimov's insights will come
when Lukashenko finally decides whether to release the only
prisoner more prominent than Klimov -- Aleksandr Kozulin.

STEWART