ACTIVIST ACQUITTED AS GOB DIVIDES AND CONQUERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000013 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2018 TAGS: ECON PGOV PINR BO SUBJECT: ACTIVIST ACQUITTED AS GOB DIVIDES AND CONQUERS ENTREPRENEURS REF: 07 MINSK 1011 Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) A court found for a pro-democracy activist on January 8, signaling last minute rearrangements in how authorities will respond to a planned January 10 protest. Potentially hundreds of market vendors affected by Presidential Order 760 could turn out, in part motivated by offensive remarks by Lukashenko. Meanwhile, up to half of vendor stalls remain closed, a few as part of a solidarity strike, some for vacation and many because the new regulation makes business unprofitable for sole proprietors. Leaders of the strike and the demonstration demand dialogue with senior GOB officials and the cancellation of restrictions on hiring by sole proprietors. The GOB may choose to sit out the protests, as skepticism over the possibility of a favorable solution means many entrepreneurs will change their business practices rather than take part in politics. Unless a compromise allows sole proprietors to stay in business, the Presidential Order will likely increase inflation and unofficial unemployment. End summa ry. Demonstration Organizer Acquitted -------------- ¶2. (C) On January 8, authorities in Borisov, Minsk oblast, arrested the leader of the organization "For the Free Development of Entrepreneurship," Viktor Gorbachev, ahead of a demonstration planned for January 10 on October Square. (Note: Charge and at least one EU Charge plan to observe the protest. End note.) Fellow Borisov entrepreneur Mikhail Vasilyev told Deputy Pol/Econ Chief that police detained Gorbachev and his family after an unidentified man provoked an altercation by pushing Gorbachev, his wife and his teenage son. Somewhat surprisingly, the local court acquitted Gorbachev on the ensuing charge of petty hooliganism. ¶3. (C) Aleksandr Makayev, one of those arrested after the last vendors' demonstration (reftel),believes turnout on January 10 will easily exceed the several hundred who attended the December 10 protest. Anatoliy Shumchenko, leader of the Perspektiva NGO, said knowledge of the action was high in markets and arrests of organizers would not significantly dampen attendance. Aleksandr Potupa, the recently retired Director of the Belarusian Union of Entrepreneurs, foresaw several arrests, noting competition between the Ministry of the Interior and the BKGB to demonstrate their abilities to tamp down dissent. Lukashenko Makes His Position Clear -------------- ¶4. (C) On December 29, Lukashenko made remarks to state media denigrating sole proprietors. Lukashenko said they paid insufficient taxes, created an atmosphere for criminal activities and harmed Belarusian producers. Shumchenko said that these insults would draw many proud business owners to October Square. Potupa told Pol/Econ Chief that unfortunately many Belarusians believe old Soviet-style rhetoric against small business. Alternate Form of Protest: Is It a Strike or Isn't It? -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Shumchenko announced vendors would close their stalls the first two weeks in January to protest Presidential Order ¶760. Press reported anywhere from 40 to 90 percent of stalls remained shuttered the first week of 2008. However, as lawyer Sergey Balykin pointed out to Pol/Econ Chief, even under normal conditions many vendors would not open because of the difficultly in attracting customers after the New Year's spending binge. Potupa termed the action a "strike wrapped up like a vacation." He added that the GOB did not see the strike as a threat. Erstwhile market shoppers would make their purchases in large stores that paid more taxes. ¶6. (C) Shumchenko told Deputy Pol/Econ Chief that most of those who had shuttered their businesses had not re-registered and did not consider it profitable to open under the new law. Those open for business (Shumchenko estimates 40 percent) complied with Presidential Order 760 one way or another. Some laid off employees. Others registered their employees as sole proprietors, a scheme that MINSK 00000013 002 OF 002 deprives owners of legal recourse if a de facto employee absconds with merchandise. Leaders of Entrepreneurs Fail in Dialogue with Regime -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) A last-ditch effort by representatives of registered sole proprietors to negotiate with authorities December 26 failed to bring any result. Balykin said civil society representatives came across as weak. They could not even come up with written proposals to present to officials. Shumchenko, however, said authorities were well aware of entrepreneurs' demand to annul the section of Presidential Order 760 denying sole proprietors the ability to hire non-relatives, and at this point only a meeting at the ministerial level or higher could bring results. Many Entrepreneurs Hedging their Bets -------------- ¶8. (C) Balykin estimates affected entrepreneurs in the country number 40,000-45,000 (the number of valid registrations for sole proprietorships totals approximately 200,000 but the figure includes many persons who went out of business). Of those, 11,500 successfully re-registered as corporations and approximately 5,000 as other forms of legal entities. With two more months left to register as a corporation for no fee, Balykin believes many sole proprietors will re-register at the last minute. Thousands of others registered their employees as sole proprietors and will try to maintain the fiction that their employees work independently, although Balykin doubts such efforts will succeed in the long run. Even Shumchenko registered a corporation under his wife's name, according to Balykin, suggesting a lack of confidence that the government will back down. ¶9. (C) Balykin predicts many sole proprietors will work semi-legally for the rest of 2008, either trying to make sales door-to-door, or pretending that employees are relatives (sole proprietors may hire up to three close relatives). Shumchenko predicted some owners would emigrate to Russia. Economic Impact: Further Inflation, Unemployment -------------- --- ¶10. (C) Both Balykin and Potupa predicted Presidential Order 760 would add to inflation, with consumers having to make purchases at stores with higher prices. However, neither thought the population at large would attach blame to Lukashenko's Presidential Order. Balykin noted prices had been rising for the past few months anyway. Potupa suggested rising energy prices would also cause further inflation in any case. ¶11. (C) Potupa also predicted job losses as entrepreneurs closed up shop and laid off employees. Deputy Economics Minister Andrey Tur told press January 3 that he expected no increase in unemployment because most affected business people operated in Minsk, where job vacancies go unfilled. Potupa correctly pointed out, however, that most vacant positions require specialized skills. Comment: Regime Dominance Through Division -------------- ¶12. (C) On the one hand, the apparent insistence by the GOB on following through with Presidential Order 760 creates an opportunity for the opposition to draw upon a newly disenchanted group of tens of thousands for support. Unfortunately, personal animosities between would-be leaders of the entrepreneurs dilute their strength. We also suspect that given their business acumen, many sole proprietors currently in limbo will find a way to stay afloat, which implies staying clear of overt participation in politics. MOORE