NORTHERN ITALY ELECTION RESULTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MILAN 000083 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/WE, EUR/PPD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2018 TAGS: PGOV IT SUBJECT: NORTHERN ITALY ELECTION RESULTS REF: A. MILAN 62 ¶B. MILAN 73 ¶C. ROME 472 MILAN 00000083 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: CG Daniel Weygandt. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Berlusconi's People of Liberty (PdL) and Northern League (LN) coalition won every region in Northern Italy (excluding the autonomous regions of Val D'Aosta and Trentino-Alto Adige which elect local parties). The Northern League virtually doubled its vote share in the North, largely at the expense of the PdL. Far left parties lost most of their support, mainly to the benefit of the Democratic Party (PD). Northern Italian voters shifted towards the two coalitions, forsaking small parties outside the two blocks on both the left and right. The resulting win for PdL-LN gives Berlusconi a comfortable majority in the Chamber and Senate, but also gives the Northern League a prominent position in his government. Dissatisfaction with the Prodi center-left government pushed voters to the right, but a weariness with politics as usual, and lackluster memories of Berlusconi's previous government drove a significant share of Forza Italia voters to support the Northern League. The Northern League's three major campaign themes, fiscal federalism, security, and immigration reform, were appealing to Northern voters and pressure will mount on Berlusconi to incorporate them, in some form, in his government's program. End summary. ¶2. (U) Note: The results discussed below are those of the Senate vote, more significant than the Chamber vote because the majority is calculated on a regional basis rather than at the national level. PdL is Berlusconi's new party, primarily composed of the Forza Italia (FI) and National Alliance (AN) parties that ran in the 2006 election. Similarly, PD is mainly the merger of the Democrats of the Left (DS) and the Daisy (Margherita). The far left refers to the parties that ran as the Rainbow of the Left in this election and as the Reformed Communists, the Italian Communist Party and the Greens in 2006. The 2006 results from these constituent parties are lumped together below to compare to the PdL, PD and far left results per general practice in media and political circles in Italy. End note. -------------- Lombardy -------------- �A; ¶3. (C) While the PdL-LN coalition trounced the PD-Italy of Values (IdV) block by 55.12% to 32.02% in the Lombardy Region Senate vote, the results for individual parties are telling. The far left lost more than 8 percentage points from 11.7% of the vote in 2006 to 3.21% now. Much of this support seems to have shifted to the PD, with small numbers also going for IdV and LN. The Northern League almost doubled its share in the Senate vote from 11% in 2006 to 20.72%. Most of this new support came from Berlusconi's PdL. While PdL still came out as the winning party overall with 34.4%, this is almost 4 percentage points less than its 2006 result of 38.3%. Support among new voters and votes pulled from the Center Union (UDC) held down PdL's loss. Largely thanks to voters switching from the far left, the PD gained just under 4 percentage points for 28.23% this year compared to 24.6% for its constituent parties in 2006. -------------- Veneto -------------- ¶4. (C) Even more dramatically than in Lombardy, the Northern League surged in Veneto, going from 11% of the vote in 2006 to an incredible 26.1% - virtually on par with the PdL (28.3%) and the PD (27.2%). The trend of voters moving from the former Forza Italia portion of PdL is even stronger in the Veneto, with PdL falling almost 9 percentage points from 2006 levels. The Northern League victory was an embarrassment for Regional President Galan, the leading PdL figure in the Veneto who had been discussed as a possible Minister. Now, Berlusconi is widely rumored to be considering naming a Northern League figure as Minister of Agriculture (an important sector for the Veneto),most likely current Vice President of the Region Luca Zaia. PD and IdV MILAN 00000083 002.2 OF 003 also picked up about 1.5 percentage points each at the expense of the far left and UDC primarily. -------------- Piedmont -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Similar trends held for Piedmont, though more modestly. Northern League again almost doubled its share, but to only 12.32% versus 6.5% in 2006. PdL lost only a fraction of a percentage point. PD and IdV made modest gains of around one percentage point. The far left fell more than 9 percentage points from 12.5% in 2006 to 3.32%. Its vote share was split between PD, IdV and LN. PdL again picked up new voters and minimal UDC support while losing some voters to LN. -------------- Liguria -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Liguria was the scene of the biggest drop for the far left, down almost 10 percentage points from 13.1% in 2006 to 3.5%. Most of this support went to the PD, which took the largest vote share as an individual party (38.3% as opposed to 35.1% in 2006). Still, the PdL-LN coalition won overall. PdL scored its only vote share increase in the North from 35.8% in 2006 to 37.5% while the Northern League grew from 3.8% in 2006 to 6.6%. IdV also increased by over 2 percentage points (or more than 100%) from 2.7% to 4.8%. The Liguria results showcase a broader trend - the movement of votes away from parties outside the main coalitions. In general, PdL, LN, PD and IdV all picked up votes at the expense of small parties external to the coalitions such as UDC, the far left and far right parties. Liguria also had the closest election results in the North with 44.1% for PdL-LN and 43.1% for PD-IdV. -------------- Friuli-Venezia-Giulia -------------- ¶7. (C) Friuli-Venezia-Giulia went solidly for the PdL-LN group (48.5%) over the PD-IdV coalition (36.1%). Still, as almost everywhere else in the North, PdL support shrunk from 39.2% in 2006 to 35.5%. The Northern League nearly doubled its votes yet again from 7.1% in 2006 to 13% in 2008. PD and IdV made small gains, largely as a result of the far left's 7 percentage point drop (from 10% in 2006 to 3%). Regional President Illy (allied with the PD) lost his reelection bid, making it a sweep for PdL-LN. (Comment: When the Consul General met Illy in early March, he seemed over-confident he would win and was not actively campaigning. Post believes this was the most likely cause for his loss. End comment.) -------------- Trentino-Alto Adige and Val D'Aosta -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Trentino-Alto Adige and Val D'Aosta went strongly for local regional parties that are pro-autonomy. Their deputies and senators will work to protect local interests. -------------- Northern League Gains -------------- ¶9. (C) Press reports initially explained the Northern League's increase as coming from the far left. Post believes most of the far left voters went to the PD and that Northern League support came predominantly from the PdL in Northern Italy. Leading pollster Paolo Natale made the same point and cites exit polling data to support his contention that almost 23% of former Forza Italia voters in Northern Italy defected from the PdL to vote for LN. PdL insiders, such as presumptive Defense Minister Ignazio La Russa, also told the Consul General that less than one percentage point of voters nationally switched from the far left to the LN, far short of accounting for LN's four point gain nationally. Thus, the resulting win for PdL-LN gives Berlusconi a comfortable majority in the Chamber and Senate, but also gives the Northern League a prominent position in his government. How the LN will seek to exploit its gains, and make them lasting, could be a major factor in the overall stability of the new MILAN 00000083 003.2 OF 003 government and its ability to carry out coherent reforms. WEYGANDT