MEXICO'S PRD REMAINS ITS OWN WORST ENEMY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 003171

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: MEXICO'S PRD REMAINS ITS OWN WORST ENEMY

REF: MEXICO 1461

Classified By: Polcouns Charles Barclay. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (CONFIDENTIAL) SUMMARY: Having exacted concessions from
lawmakers struggling to finalize energy reform legislation,
Mexico's Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) should be
celebrating its political gains this week. Instead, party
banner carrier Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is threatening to
form a blockade around Congress over a non-issue in the
reform bill. The PRD remains internally distracted by the
fallout from bitterly contested party presidency elections in
March. Like its erratic figurehead, the PRD is its own worst
enemy, failing to capitalize on a favorable political
situation, identify new leaders and unite. All factions
within PRD share a measure of blame. END SUMMARY.

PARTY IN CONFLICT
--------------


2. (SBU) Mexico's Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) has
not recovered from the disputed internal elections for the
presidency dating back to March (reftel) between the two main
factions of the party--the New Left Faction (NLF) headed by
Jesus Ortega ("El Chucho") and the United Left Faction (ULF)
led by Alejandro Encinas, which is aligned with Andres Manuel
Lopez Obrador (AMLO). Saul Escobar Toledo, the Secretary of
the Party and one of its original founders, told Poloff the
PRD probably will maintain an unfavorable status quo with its
interim president, Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo, until new
internal elections can be held possibly as late as February
2010 after the national legislative elections in July 2009.


3. (SBU) Recent conversations with PRD leaders across the
board demonstrated that the party faithful have yet to
resolve the fundamental question that arose in the aftermath
of AMLO's failed presidential candidacy in 2006 -- whether it
serves the party's interest to work within the system, or
attempt to crash it. Proud of the PRD's role in Mexico's
transition to democracy and creation of the Federal Electoral
Institute (IFE) in 1996, Veronica Juarez Pina, Secretary of
Municipal Governments, represents what is now the dominant
ideological strain within the party. She told Poloff that
her faction, the NLF, emphasizes working within the system
and strengthening democratic institutions despite the belief
that the PRD was robbed of the Presidency in 1988 and again
in 2006. Members of AMLO's ULF, on the other hand, say the
party's best strategy remains mobilizing Mexico's grass roots
left, and using the "force-multiplier" offered by the Broad
Progressive Front (FAP),which consists of members of the
PRD, far left Workers Party (PT) and Convergence Party.
Confrontation, through demonstrations, mass rallies and
street blockades, remains their preferred operational mode.

FAILURE TO UNITE
--------------


4. (C) Despite a pronouncement that all is well within the
party by PRD coordinator Carlos Navarrete (and the party's
Senate leader),these contending strains failed to unite at
the party's National Convention September 20-21, which was
not attended by AMLO, and subsequently at the party's
National Congress on October 11. Instead of resolving the
internal conflict between the factions, the PRD, led by the
NLF, passed a procedural rule at the convention that would in
effect prohibit AMLO supporters from leaving the party and
then running for party positions as Convergence or PT
members. The party formed a new body to centralize decision
making and agreed on a policy of alliances with the PAN and
PRI, both of which could also be viewed as an attempt to
weaken AMLO and the ULF. They also agreed on a process of
elections to select new PRD candidates. PRD Deputy Erick
Lopez Barriga told Poloff that none of this constituted
significant reform and the party still lacks internal
transparency and democracy. A party congressional advisor
Enrique Soto told Poloff that the party lacked a common
platform that could overcome the division between the two
camps. Another PRD insider, Guillermo Flores Vazquez, told
Poloff that AMLO increasingly has become marginalized within
the PRD.



MEXICO 00003171 002 OF 002


PARTY SCHIZOPHRENIA ON ENERGY REFORM
--------------


5. (SBU) The final stage of Mexico's protracted energy
debate has been emblematic of the party's inabilty to
coalesce around an important national issue. For months,
AMLO has reached beyond his own party's members to gather
support for a campaign against significant reform of Mexico's
state oil company, PEMEX. While AMLO's "National Movement in
Defense of Petroleum" mounted noisy street protests,
mainstream PRD legislators negotiated within Congress to
exact concession's from PAN and PRI counterparts. The
resulting legislation was a watered down reform which failed
to include allowing much-needed private capital to
participate in exploration and production of Mexico's oil
reserves. (To be sure, PRI legislators also fought hard to
maintain the prohibition on the use of private investment in
the exploitation of Mexico's oil.) Many party adherents
sought to take credit, rally the party and paint this as a
victory for both the party and AMLO.


6. (SBU) Nevertheless, some 17,337 members of AMLO's
National Movement voted October 22 by well over a 2-1 margin
to form a blockade around Congress to prevent it from moving
the energy bill forward, insisting on language that
explicitly prohibits private investment in PEMEX.


7. (SBU) Mexico's Senate on October 23 passed the
legislation with the support of nearly every PRD Senator.
AMLO's movement vowed to continue its attempt to thwart the
bill's final passage.


8. (SBU) Deputy Lopez had confided to Poloff that many PRD
opponents of the reform bill would moderate their position in
response to AMLO's tactics. Indeed, this appears to be the
case. Chamber of Deputy's President told Poloffs that he
expected the support of nearly 70 percent of PRD legislators
when that body takes up the legislation next week. AMLO thus
has alienated some of his best legislative allies in the
party by continuing to protest a bill they have fought hard
over. In doing so, he has further undermined opportunity to
strengthen the PRD's image as a cohesive political block that
can offer clear and reasoned policy alternatives to Mexico's
voters.


9. (C) COMMENT: Whether he has become more of a liability
than an asset to the party, most PRD insiders agree that AMLO
is still a very important force in the absence of a dynamic
alternative leader. Although several PRD contacts continue
to maintain that the failed presidential candidate is on the
verge of formally breaking with the party, most believe he
will remain inside the tent. Party Finance Secretary Avila
told Poloff AMLO enjoys the best of both worlds if he remains
a part of the PRD: the party offers him institutional
support and funding, while FAP, and its affiliate
organizations, offer him "street support" and a grass roots
base. In turn, many insiders consider that AMLO offers the
PRD a big name and a rallying point for voters. This
hopeful assessment will be tested at the polls next summer.
Recent surveys show the party has lost much ground in the
past year and suggests it will lose more in next summer's
elections. END COMMENT.
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GARZA