CALLS FOR ACTION, BUT NO LEADS IN MORELIA GRENADE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 002808 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INL E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2027 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM SNAR KCRM MX SUBJECT: CALLS FOR ACTION, BUT NO LEADS IN MORELIA GRENADE ATTACKS Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Charles V. Barclay. Reason: 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary. In the aftermath of the September 15 grenade attacks which claimed at least seven lives and injured scores, the Calderon government deployed an additional 1200 federal troops, plus more than 300 elements of the federal police to Morelia. The center of Michoacan's state capital is in virtual lockdown, report media. The grenade attacks represent the most random and spectacular attack on innocents to occur in the context of escalating violence in Mexico, but no clear theory has yet emerged to explain the carnage. Embassy law enforcement elements report that several individuals arrested in the immediate aftermath of the attacks already have been released and that police contacts report no solid leads. While political leaders from around the country have closed ranks for the moment, condemning the attacks and calling for swift action against the perpetrators, finger-pointing is likely to ensue in coming days. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) Governor Godoy, who has publicly supported Calderon's federal troop deployments and worked closely with federal officials in combating crime in his state, had just started to ring a bell at 11pm to honor Mexico's independence when the first grenade exploded in the main square. A second, seemingly coordinated explosion occurred minutes later five blocks away. By varying accounts, the blasts killed seven or eight people and injured up to 128 more. At least 24 of those hospitalized are children. 3.(C) There is one unconfirmed report of a brief gun-battle between police arriving at the scene and armed men in a truck. Witnesses also report that a heavy set man in his late 20s or early 30s hurled the first grenade, and then disappeared into the crowd. A contact in the state attorney general's office told us that eyewitnesses had helped investigators produce an image of at least one of the attackers. State attorney general Miguel Garcia Hurtado told press that cameras may have identified one or more of the perpetrators. ¶4. (C) A day after the attacks, authorities remain uncertain of their source and motive. Governor Godoy initially told the public that the attacks were most likely perpetrated organized crime. Michoacan has become a battleground between contending cartels, most notably the Sinaloan and Millenium factions on the one hand, and "The Family" and Zetas on the other. A PRD Federal Deputy from Michoacan told poloff that the attack was contrary to the tactics of Michoacan's dominant "La Familia," which has attempted to cultivate popular support, but could have been carried out by a rival cartel. Nevertheless, while cartel bloodletting has often claimed innocent lives throughout the country, the deliberate mass targeting of civilian celebrants would be unprecedented and a significant departure from organized crime's normal mode of operations. ¶5. (SBU) Some commentators thought that an element of Mexico's radical underground might be responsible. However, Michoacan is not a typical locus of operations for radical underground groups, such as the EPR, which in the recent past has mainly targeted economic infrastructure and occasionally members of security forces. ¶6. (U) These and other theories, such as a "lone nut" hypothesis advanced by a few, need more facts to substantiate. Even the sequence and exact timing of events in downtown Morelia remain unclear; the two explosions occurred five blocks and either minutes or seconds apart, according to varying reports, and authorities are so far unable to determine whether one or more perpetrator was responsible for both. ¶7. (SBU) Regardless of who was responsible, the attacks are likely to greatly heighten public concern here -- and occasion political grandstanding by parties positioning themselves as tough on crime in the run up to legislative elections next year. For the time being, all political elements are standing together. President Calderon met with Governor Godoy, called for national unity and made good on his promise of an immediate federal response to the attacks by deploying additional forces to the state and its capital. Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) President Beatrice MEXICO 00002808 002 OF 002 Paredes condemned the attacks on behalf of her party and said it would support any necessary action to maintain the rule of law in Mexico. The leaders of both the Chamber of Deputies and Senate demanded swift punishment for the perpetrators. Each party has put national security at the top of its political agenda for the coming months. With the independence day attacks fueling public concern, we can expect them to highlight them to further distinguish themselves from each other -- even though their respective approaches to violent crime in Mexico do not differ fundamentally. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / GARZA