DEMONSTRATORS DEMAND GOM ACTION ON RISING LEVELS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 002682 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SNAR KCRM MX SUBJECT: DEMONSTRATORS DEMAND GOM ACTION ON RISING LEVELS OF VIOLENT CRIMES REF: MEXICO 2669 REFTEL: MEXICO 2669 SUBJECT: Demonstrators Demand GOM Action on Rising Levels of Violent Crimes ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Tens of thousands of Mexicans on marched in Mexico City on August 30 to protest rising levels of violence, with demonstrations taking place in over 80 other Mexican cities, as well as a number of U.S. cities. The demonstration was inspired by the recent kidnapping and murder of Fernando Marti, the 14 year-old son of prominent businessman Alejandro Marti. (See reftel.) Participants were not just protesting the rise in crime but also by what many see as the GOM's failure to address the issue. On August 31, the march's civil society organizers met with President Calderon to present their own crime-fighting proposals. End Summary. Impressive Turn Out at Anti-Crime Demonstration ¶2. (SBU) Although the demonstration commenced in heavy rain, most observers estimated that it was as large if not larger than the last major anti-crime march in 2004. According to some observers, over 300,000 people took part in the 2004 "March of Silence." The editorial director of Mexico City newspaper El Universal, who took part in both marches, estimated that this year's march was larger than the 2004 march and noted that this was the fourth big anti-crime march in the past 11 years. Alejandro Marti said he was satisfied with the August 30 demonstration, "Illuminemos Mexico" (Let's light up Mexico). Growing Skepticism of GOM's Crime Strategy ¶3. (SBU) The march was inspired by the recent kidnapping and murder of Fernando Marti, the 14 year-old son of prominent businessman Alejandro Marti. Participants were not only outraged by the rise in crime but also by what many see as the GOM's failure to address the issue. According to a survey published by Mexico City newspaper El Universal August 22, 81% of respondents stated that insecurity has increased and 59% judged that the federal government's response so far has failed to check this rise. Just over a third of those polled blamed the impunity enjoyed by criminals on "the inefficiency and corruption of the judges"; another third blamed the police. ¶4. (SBU) Another leading Mexico City newspaper, La Reforma, collated a mass of official data to make the same point. It noted that, over the past decade, the public security budgets had increased by 565% and that police forces had substantially increased their strength (the federal police by 51% between 1999 and 2007, the Federal Investigation Agency (AFI) by almost 100% over the past six years). The federal public security ministry doubled its budget since 2000 to the equivalent of $1.9 billion; the office of the federal chief prosecutor (PGR) by 94% over the past decade, to about $918 million. All told, the country now has 516,000 police officers, or 4.8 for every 1,000 inhabitants. ¶5. (SBU) Despite this effort, noted Reforma, the number of reported kidnappings rose by 45% over the past five years, and between 2006 and 2007 the number of crimes increased by 8.6%. In Mexico City alone, in 2007, there were on average 250 holdups and four murders a day. ¶6. (SBU) Two separate surveys published by Reforma August 27 and September 1 (conducted just before the August 21 Crime Summit ) see reftel for more on the Crime Summit) shows a wide-ranging pattern of decline in public approval ratings. The August 27 poll shows that since March 2007, the armed forces have seen their approval rating fall from 70% to 63%, the Supreme Court from 49% to 40%, the Chamber of Deputies from 34% to 24%, the Senate from 36% to 24%, and political parties from 27% to 22%. Moreover, only 36% of respondents declared themselves satisfied with the way the democratic system is functioning in Mexico. Although the September 1 Reforma poll shows that Calderon's approval rating of 62% is down only 3 percentage points since September 2007, 38% of those polled believe that he has been the least effective in the area of security ) his Administration's top priority ) while 22% said the economy. Civil Society Presents Security Proposals ¶7. (SBU) Following the march, President Calderon met with 14 civic leaders who presented their own ten point plan of 10 actions to improve security. Calderon agreed to adopt several proposals of their plan, most of which are in line with the security pact adopted at last month's Crime Summit (see reftel). Among the measures are the creation of a citizens' panel to monitor government progress in fighting crime, better police recruiting and oversight systems, and equipping police with more powerful weapons. Calderon offered MEXICO 00002682 002 OF 002 few details about the proposed panel ) the Citizens' Institute of Social and Criminal Prevention ) but members of the 14 civic groups told reporters the president promised a concrete plan within a month. Comment ¶8. (SBU) The public clamor over rising levels of violent crime in Mexico, as evidenced by recently published polls and this past weekend's march, is bringing the Calderon administration under pressure to take action that evinces a greater sense of urgency and produce results that deliver the general population a greater sense of security. This began with a shake-up of the federal Attorney General's Office (PGR),continued with the launching of special anti-kidnapping units, and culminated in the first full meeting of the national public security council, where a cross-section of leaders reached agreement on a 75-point strategy to combat organized crime. Reinforcing these actions, Calderon emphasized security as his administration's top priority in his message as part of his Second State of the Union Address (see septel). &We will not rest until you feel safe in the city where you live,8 he said. Arguably, increased crime violence, particularly among the drug cartels, are a sign that the tougher security measures are hitting a nerve. Further, to be fair, reforming Mexico's security and its judicial system, clearly prerequisites for addressing the Mexico's crime challenge, will take time given inherent political, bureaucratic, and institutional resistance. Nevertheless, as Mexico struggles to turn the page on the crime threat it faces and citizens grow impatient with the time it is taking, we can expect the debate over crime to take on significant political overtones. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / GARZA