WEAKENING OF GULF, SINALOA CARTELS GENERATES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 001766

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/MEX AND INL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2028
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM SNAR KCRM MX
SUBJECT: WEAKENING OF GULF, SINALOA CARTELS GENERATES
MEXICO'S SPIKE IN VIOLENCE

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Charles V. Barclay. Reason:
1.4 (b),(d).

1.(SBU) Summary: Disruption of drug trafficking operations
in Sinaloa and other key narco-zones has sparked conflict
between the smaller cartels operating under the Sinaloa
Cartel, led to shifting allegiances and contributed to the
wave of killings here. This is a trend security analysts
expect will continue as federal and military and law
enforcement activities force individual cartels to look out
for their own interests and adopt new strategies. This
phenomenon most recently has been demonstrated in the
conflict between the Sinaloa Cartel, headed by Joaquin &El
Chapo8 Guzman, and its former subsidiary, run by the Beltran
Leyva brothers. It is compounded by the formation of a new
partnership between the latter and the traditional Gulf
Cartel enforcers, the Zetas.

High Profile Killings Linked to Intra-Cartel Conflict in
Sinaloa

2.(C) Conflict between the Sinaloa-based factions,
exacerbated by increased law enforcement pressure, may have
been directly responsible for the recent deaths of both
senior police officials and Cartel members. Stepped up
federal actions against the Sinaloa Cartel earlier this year
uncovered deep frictions between the Beltran Leyva brothers
and their former bosses. The split may have begun some
months back, when El Chapo associates began to fear that
violent tactics favored by the Beltran Leyva brothers would
bring down too much heat on both organizations. It came to a
head with the arrest of Alfredo Beltran Leyva in January
during an operation planned and led by Federal Police
Commissioner Edgar Millan Gomez. As reported earlier, Embassy
sources speculate that the Guzman himself provided the
intelligence that led to Alfredo's arrest. Sources also
believe that Arturo Beltran ordered Millan's assassination,
as well as the death of El Chapo's son, Edgar Guzman, in
retaliation.

Gulf Cartel Fractures

3.(C) Calderon's aggressive push in Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon
has also rattled the Gulf Cartel and offered opportunities to
the Zetas. Law enforcement sources tell the Embassy that a
leader of this Gulf Cartel enforcement group, Heriberto
Lazcano, has been working with the Beltran Leyva brothers
since mid-2007 in the wake of successful GOM actions against
the Gulf Cartel (and particularly the extradition to the U.S.
of its leader Osiel Cardenas Guillen). Mexican media report
that the Public Security Secretariat (SSP),Attorney
General's Office (PGR),and the Defense Secretariat (SEDENA)
believe that in fact the Gulf cartel has divided into two
organizations: a Zetas Cartel and the remains of the Gulf
Cartel. In close association with the Beltran Leyva brothers,
the Zetas now control trafficking in at least 12 Mexican
states. (Note: Embassy law enforcement analysts see this as
less the birth of a new cartel and more a further fracturing
and regrouping of already fractious cartels that have always
appeared more monolithic than they actually were.)

4.(C) Corroborated by numerous DEA confidential sources,
there appears to now be a loose alliance between some Zeta
and the Beltran Leyva organization which will likely
contribute still more internecine violence and further weaken
the Sinaloa Cartel. Zeta hit-men recently arrested in the
state of Sonora told authorities they were deployed to the
state to shore up Beltran Leyva operations and fight El
Chapo's operatives. For his part, El Chapo's status as
Mexico's most-wanted criminal has made it nearly impossible
for him to conduct business-as-usual, say law enforcement
sources. Meanwhile, the Gulf Cartel remains in place, but is
severely compromised by splits among remaining leaders after
the removal of Osiel Cardenas.

Comment


5. (C) Comment: Pressure from inside and out have changed
the nature of both the Gulf and Sinaloa Cartels. The current
wave of narco-violence is a hallmark of their further
weakening. The apparent Zeta-ABLO alliance, if solidified,
would represent a significant power shift in organized crime
in Mexico, creating another pole in the cartel world. One
thing is clear: Calderon's aggressive strategy of

MEXICO 00001766 002 OF 002


confronting the Cartels has clearly rattled Mexico's major
narco-players, promoting shifting alliances as each
sub-element seeks to maximize its own position, with often
violent results. End Comment.



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