SCENE SETTER FOR THE VISIT TO MEXICO OF AMBASSADOR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 001039 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (LAST NAME CORRECTED) SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCT, WHA/MEX E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2018 TAGS: ECON IR KCRM KNNP MNUC MX PGOV PREL SNAR MASS SUBJECT: SCENE SETTER FOR THE VISIT TO MEXICO OF AMBASSADOR DELL DAILEY, STATE DEPARTMENT COORDINATOR FOR COUNTER-TERRORISM, APRIL 13-15, 2008 MEXICO 00001039 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Charles V. Barclay, Political Counselor, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (SBU) Welcome to Mexico City. Mexico is key to USG success in combating a wide array of transnational security threats which undermine our ability to confront global terrorism. A stew of widespread criminality, drug trafficking, corruption and impunity has created an enabling environment for a variety of ill-intended elements here. There is much good news, however: the U.S. - Mexico relationship on security issues, including counter-terrorism, is excellent and we have no evidence that foreign terrorist organizations have gained a foothold here. Equally important, a resolute president is taking aggressive actions that will make Mexico an even more valued partner in years to come. Your visit here will provide an excellent overview of Mexico's challenging security environment. While your interlocutors will have well-defined opinions on the nature of the security challenges facing Mexico -- that do not always reflect our own thinking -- engaging them will advance our dialogue greatly. Mexico's Security Environment and Commitment ¶2. (U) Mexico remains relatively inhospitable to local and international terrorist groups intending to operate within the country. In July and September of 2007, the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR),a domestic guerrilla group, attacked oil and gas pipelines, causing significant economic damage. More recently, this group issue a communique threatening CISEN, Mexico's intelligence entity. Attacks, however, are sporadic and it is doubtful domestic groups have the wherewithal to make an impact with sustained armed operations. ¶3. (S) Mexican authorities are also receptive to concerns raised by foreign governments regarding potential infiltration by foreign groups, stepping up security and surveillance when circumstances warrant, investigating special interest aliens and taking acting against human trafficking and smuggling operations that might be exploited by terrorists. (A March 2007 procedural change, however, has complicated this picture. Instead of holding SIAs in one central facility near the capital, migration authorities now detain and release such individuals where they are originally found, complicating our ability to investigate and track them. CPB has been working with senior migration officials, who are sympathetic to our concerns, but so far have taken no measures to accommodate them.) ¶4. (U) Mexico last year strengthened its anti-terrorism regime through passage of legislation outlawing terrorist financing and associated money laundering, significantly toughening penalties for a variety of terror-related activities in the process. ¶5. (U) The GOM coordinates well with the USG in a variety of counter-terror areas such as information-sharing of air passenger data; it has begun exploring programs designed to deter terrorists from using Mexico's seaports as staging areas for introducing terror-related materials. Mexico cooperates with USG elements in countering money laundering activity and its military is actively looking to gain greater control over its vast maritime zone through equipment upgrades and counter drug initiatives. ¶6. (U) That said, areas of concern remain. Mexico's large territory and traditionally weak enforcement of the movement of peoples and goods both at its borders and within Mexico make it a potential transit point for terrorists intending to launch attacks against the U.S. Moreover, in recent years, criminality has taken on a growing presence in Mexico and engendered concern that the government had lost significant ground in many locales to narco-cartels. Rampant lawlessness, widespread corruption and the government's longstanding inability to confront either had been seen as troubling threat indicators to those watching our southern border for signs of potential terrorist infiltration. MEXICO 00001039 002.2 OF 003 Aggressive New Posture on Law Enforcement and Security ¶7. (U) In the past year, however, the GOM has taken aggressive steps to turn the situation around. Since taking office, Calderon has launched anti-drug operations in ten states, raised pay for the military, and replaced numerous high-ranking federal police officers. He launched improvements to inter-agency communications and oversaw a successful effort to pass legislation unifying federal police forces and reform the judicial system. These enhancements, if fully implemented, should strengthen the GOM's security capabilities across the board and make it better able to confront potential challenges from all manner of ill-intended non-state actors. ¶8. (U) Calderon has also placed a high premium on strengthened law enforcement cooperation with the U.S. He has significantly expanded the number of criminal extraditions, instructed key members of his security team to engage their USG counterparts fully and worked closely with us to develop a joint approach to counter-narcotics through such efforts as the Merida Initiative. The emerging pattern of bilateral cooperation across the board is highly positive and likely to take on momentum in years to come. Old Attitudes Complicate Dialogue on Security Issues ¶8. (U) Despite Mexico's commitment to broaden bilateral cooperation, there are differences between the U.S. and Mexican approaches to global affairs to be considered when seeking dialogue with Mexican interlocutors on security and foreign policy issues. Mexico is still developing an "over-the-horizon" view of the world and the potential security threats it throws up. It does not share our position on the need for robust, forward-based defense of our security interests in the Near East or South Asia. It places less emphasis on the potential threat to the region emanating from groups such as Al-Qaida. It is less nervous about Iranian diplomatic, economic and political outreach in the region than we are. ¶9. (C) Closer to home, Mexico has traditionally sought to play a regional role that is independent of the U.S. With the exception of the Fox administration, Mexican governments -- including Calderon's -- have generally sought to maintain warm ties with Cuba. Similarly, until recently, the GOM had sought to avoid conflict with the current Venezuelan government. Mexican officials and citizens alike have viewed the activities of populist governments, and even certain armed groups, in the region as relatively benign. One senior official in Mexico's Foreign Relations Secretariat recently told us that even the FARC had its "historical context" which conveyed a certain amount of legitimacy to the organization. You should remember that Mexicans still view global and regional security issues through a different prism than we do when discussing such issues. ¶10. (C) Finally, the great premium Mexico has placed on sovereignty and non-interference in other nations' affairs tend to soften its posture in various international fora; it is reluctant to take on high-profile issues that are likely to be antagonistic to the interest of other countries, no matter how egregious their behavior. This is most apparent in human rights organizations, but also a factor in the OAS, UN and other international organizations. ¶11. (C) Comment: The Calderon administration has committed to significantly strengthening the security relationship with the United States, but remains keen to balance this effort against its desire to be seen in the region as an influential -- and independent -- actor. It cannot be expected to take high profile positions on hot-button issues that are closely identified with U.S. interests. Security cooperation, particularly in the area of counter terrorism initiatives, will necessarily be low key for some time to come. That said, the more the U.S. and Mexico cooperate in broad areas of law enforcement, the deeper our cooperation in the range of security initiatives is likely to become in coming years. End Comment. MEXICO 00001039 003.2 OF 003 Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / GARZA