Australian Counterterrorism Ambassador on Progress,

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SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PTER PGOV AS
SUBJECT: Australian Counterterrorism Ambassador on Progress,
Prospects

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REF:

Summary
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1. (SBU) During a November 26 address, Australia's Ambassador for
Counter-Terrorism, Bill Paterson indicated that his country would
maintain its focus on Southeast Asia by stepping up operational
capacity there. Recounting his recent visit to the United States,
Paterson said he had been struck by the persistent U.S. concern of
another domestic terrorist attack as well as the increased attention
on northwest Pakistan as "terror central." He assessed that
al-Qaida remains a challenge due to the expansion of sanctuaries in
Pakistan's tribal areas. Paterson did not indicate any reduced
support of U.S. counterterrorism efforts, but was careful to
indicate that Australia is assuming a greater role in its own
backyard. End Summary.

Australia and Counterterrorism
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2. (SBU) Speaking to Monash University's annual "Radicalization
Crossing Borders" conference on November 26, Australia's Ambassador
for Counter-Terrorism, Bill Paterson said that his country will
remain focused on Southeast Asia. Australia will step up efforts to
improve customs and border security programs and will continue to
track the financial flows of terrorist organizations. Based on its
experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, Australia will expand and
improve upon its anti improvised explosive device (IED) technology.
In addition to pursuing education reform in Southeast Asian
madrasas, Australia will promote interfaith dialogue and prison
reform. Paterson acknowledged that "significant vulnerabilities"
remain, but did not elaborate further on the topic.


3. (SBU) Commenting on his recent visit to Washington, Paterson said
that he was struck by a persistent U.S. fear of another terrorist
attack on the homeland. He also noted the increased emphasis the
USG is placing on northwest Pakistan as "terror central." He
speculated that President-elect Obama might change some of the
"language" around terrorism - such as the Global War on Terror - but
the Obama administration will likely maintain a focus on
counterterrorism efforts. He expects the Obama administration to
continue to move the U.S. counterterrorism strategy from kinetic
(military) operations to a "whole of government" approach.

Assessment of al-Qaida
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4. (SBU) Paterson said that al-Qaida has undergone a paradigm shift.
The organization is "transnational, franchised, and underpinned by
a shared ideology based on a warped view of Islam." He stated that
al-Qaida is "under pressure," but likely to remain a challenge as it
represents a model others may follow. While al-Qaida's operational
capacity has been reduced in the years following 2001, it has
recently begun to "regenerate" due to new sanctuaries found in
Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).


5. (SBU) According to Paterson, a geographic base has been critical
for al-Qaida, allowing it to attract funding and new recruits.
Outside of this new base, al-Qaida remains a "coherent, small group"
with Bin Laden and Zwahiri still at the organization's apex. He
stated that some local terrorist groups operate in al-Qaida's name,
but sometimes work at counter purposes with al-Qaida by pursuing
unrelated, local and divergent goals. Paterson said that obtaining
new technologies to inflict mass casualties remains a key al-Qaida
objective.

Once Around the World
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6. (SBU) Al-Qaida in Iraq remains the largest and most capable
franchise. Paterson said that although Sunni groups have degraded
some of al-Qaida's effectiveness, the organization still retains
influence in northern parts of the country. Muslims in the Maghreb
and throughout Africa are "pushing back" against the use of
violence. In the southern Philippines and Thailand, extremists
remain entrenched, though local rather than transnational concerns
motivate these groups. Jamaat Islamiah is "weakened" and the group
has returned to its proselytizing.

Comment
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7. (SBU) While Ambassador Paterson did not make any ground-breaking
counterterrorism policy announcements during his November 26
address, his emphasis on Australia's growing role in Southeast Asia

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are instructive. At no time did Paterson indicate a diminished role
in supporting key U.S. foreign policy objectives, but Australia's
interest in policing its own backyard is becoming more pronounced.

THURSTON