GRM AND PRESS UNEASY ABOUT ZUMA'S RISE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 000934

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV MZ SF
SUBJECT: GRM AND PRESS UNEASY ABOUT ZUMA'S RISE

REF: 07 MAPUTO 1486

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Todd C. Chapman, reasons 1.4 (b+d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Mozambican press has carefully analyzed
the potential implication of JACOB Zuma's rise to power in
neighboring South Africa. Concerns include potential
regional implications of domestic conflict inside South
Africa, particularly given the political, economic, and trade
ties between South Africa and its SADC neighbors.
Interestingly, ZUMA is a known quantity in Mozambique, having
spent ten years in exile in Maputo until 1987, where he
developed strong ties with FRELIMO members currently in
power. Nonetheless, Foreign Minister Baloi has expressed
serious concerns about political instability in South Africa
following Mbeki's resignation, including potential impact on
South Africa's Zimbabwe policy. END SUMMARY.

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PUNDITS ANALYZE MBEKI'S DOWNFALL...
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2. (SBU) On September 21, a variety of Mozambican press
commentators focused on what the departure of President Mbeki
meant for the southern Africa region, and Mozambique in
particular. Ahmad Camal, a prominent businessman and FRELIMO
operative, said that Mbeki was paying the price of having
ostracized his own party members, causing Mbeki to lose
support within the ANC. Eduardo Namburete, opposition-party
RENAMO National Assembly Deputy, explained that ZUMA often
takes a populist stance in order to build the ANC base, while
a President ZUMA will adopt a more moderate perspective when
faced with the realities of running South Africa. Namburete
posited that the Mbeki administration had lost power due to
its focus on foreign policy at the expense of domestic
concerns. Another RENAMO official, Ismael Mussa, said that
economic constraints prevented Mbeki from living up to the
image of Mandela and his accomplishments, particularly in the
area of poverty alleviation, and warned that ZUMA would
eventually be faced with the same problem as Mbeki. Mussa
added that ZUMA should be careful not to follow Mbeki's lead
and not focus too much on foreign policy.

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...AND A ZUMA ADMINISTRATION'S REGIONAL IMPACTS
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3. (SBU) Commentators did express concern about possible
domestic conflicts under Zuma, recalling recent xenophobic
attacks that forced the return of more than 40,000
Mozambicans from South Africa. Belmiro Rodolfo, Director of
the Center for Strategic International Studies (CEEI),
predicted that South Africa faced great uncertainty, but
believed that the ANC would adequately guide the country
towards stability. Another CEEI commentator, Antonio Gaspar,
suggested that a ZUMA administration might take a different
approach on regional issues like Zimbabwe--but indicated that
Mozambique's foreign policy towards South Africa would remain
the same once ZUMA took Mbeki's place. All agreed that given
the strong political and economic ties between the two
countries, and that South Africa is a significant investor in
Mozambique, its most valuable trading partner in SADC, and a
significant employer of Mozambican workers, any domestic
unrest in South Africa could have a magnified impact on
Mozambique.

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ZUMA'S MOZAMBIQUE (AND FRELIMO) CONNECTION...
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4. (SBU) JACOB ZUMA is one of the best-known ANC leaders in
Mozambique, spending ten years in exile in Maputo and even
marrying a Mozambican. Between 1977 and 1987, when South
African air raids and commando attacks intensified, ZUMA was
forced to go into hiding in Maputo. Through this difficult
period, ZUMA developed personal relationships with FRELIMO
leaders, which he continues to foster. In the past he has
attended high-profile political events, such as the FRELIMO
Congress in Quelimane in November 2006, and most recently
visited members of the Government of Mozambique (GRM) in
early August to apologize for the xenophobic attacks on
Mozambicans in South Africa.

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...BUT INCREASING GRM NERVOUSNESS ABOUT ZUMA
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5. (C) Despite previous indications from the Minister of
the Presidency that GRM and FRELIMO officials might view a
Zuma presidency in a positive light (reftel),and long

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standing political connections between the two countries,
Foreign Minister Oldemiro Baloi told the Charge on September
20 that he was deeply concerned about the changing political
landscape in South Africa and the uncertainty following a
Mbeki resignation. In earlier conversations in recent months
about the negative impact of Zimbabwe's political instability
on Mozambique, Baloi told the Charge more than once that the
potential problems with the planned political transition in
South Africa during the coming year was his much greater
fear.

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COMMENT: DOMESTIC ISSUES LINKED TO REGIONAL IMPACTS
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6. (C) Mozambique's political analysts and GRM officials
clearly grasp that if ZUMA does not tackle domestic issues of
crime, health, poverty, and economic development, he could
cause serious damage to his own country's economy and also on
its neighbors. While at least initially there is no major
change anticipated in relations between the GRM and the SAG,
the senior leaders have been working with Mbeki and his
cohorts for a long time and any change will be challenging,
even if it does offer new opportunities. Of immediate
concern, the GRM will be looking for any change which Mbeki's
departure may have on SAG policy on Zimbabwe.
Chapman