QUIET DIPLOMACY 'SUCCESS' IN ZIMBABWE LAUDED, YET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 000933 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI MZ SUBJECT: QUIET DIPLOMACY 'SUCCESS' IN ZIMBABWE LAUDED, YET CONCERNS REMAIN MAPUTO 00000933 001.2 OF 002 ZFR_________________ZFR__________________ZFR_ ______________ZFR___ PLEASE CANCEL DETROY MAPUTO 000933 DTG R 020811Z OCT 08. THIS IS A DUPICATE OF MAPUTO 000929. PLEASE CANCEL ALL ASSOCIATED MCNS WWITH MAPUTO 000933. ZFR_________________ZFR__________________ZFR_ ______________ZFR______ MAPUTO 00000933 002 OF 002 fuel trucks traveling from Beira to Zimbabwe. While along the Beira Corridor, EmbOffs also confirmed suspicions that a large number of Zimbabweans were seeking to purchase products, trade for hard currency, and procure jobs in Manica province, where a shared local dialect allows them to blend in without drawing suspicion. ¶6. (C) Residents of Chimoio raised concerns with Emboffs about increasing numbers of desperate Zimbabweans generating income by means of prostitution and petty crime, while Mayor Manuel Alberto Sarande downplayed the impact of Zimbabweans on his city. Locals explained that relatively better-trained Zimbabwean skilled workers were undercutting locals by offering to work at cut rates in order to earn currency stronger than Zim dollars. While xenophobic attacks against Zimbabweans appear unlikely at this point, Mozambican public sentiment along the Beira Corridor is becoming increasingly negative, particularly after a recent shooting at a Shoprite grocery store in broad daylight, perpetrated by Zimbabwean youths. Some Zimbabweans living and working as teachers in Mozambique have publicly expressed hopes of returning to a stabilized Zimbabwe; however, most Zimbabweans encountered in Chimoio and Manica did not express to EmbOffs any hope of a return to normalcy. -------------- -- OPPOSITION RENAMO AGAINST IDEA OF POWER-SHARING -------------- -- ¶7. (C) Opposition party RENAMO has not yet publicly commented on the developments in Zimbabwe, but party contacts have indicated to Pol Specialist that RENAMO privately continues to hold its long-standing position against power-sharing deals. RENAMO's position is that power-sharing agreements are no more than convenient means for solving electoral disputes, and do not necessarily promote multi-party democracies in Africa, particularly after electoral victories by opposition groups. (Note: RENAMO still contends it won Mozambique's 1999 national elections. End note.) When Tsvangirai visited Maputo several months ago, RENAMO leader Afonso Dhlakama made it clear that he was against power-sharing, offering to call Mugabe and encourage him to step down following MDC and Tsvangirai's electoral victory. -------------- -------------- QUIET DIPLOMACY RESULT UNCLEAR, ECONOMIC IMPACTS STILL KEY -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) COMMENT: While the extent of the GRM's involvement via the SADC Troika in brokering an agreement between ZANU-PF and the MDC is difficult to ascertain objectively, it is clear that Guebuza is proud of the ultimate result. Even so, many Mozambicans have continuing concerns about Zimbabwe's economic collapse--as alluded to by FM Baloi--and potential effects such a failure can still have on the Beira Corridor and the Mozambican economy as a whole. END COMMENT. Chapman