FOREIGN MINISTER BALOI ON ZIMBABWE, SADC TROIKA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 000857 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI MZ SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER BALOI ON ZIMBABWE, SADC TROIKA REF: A. MAPUTO 802 ¶B. MAPUTO 709 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Todd Chapman, Reasons 1.4(b+d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In an August 28 meeting with the Charge, Foreign Minister Oldemiro Baloi was very frank in his appraisal of the crisis in Zimbabwe and Mozambique's role via the SADC Troika (ref A). Baloi said the Troika had taken on specific mediation interventions, and he described President Mugabe as lucid, but essentially controlled by internal factions in his government, namely the military, intelligence service, and police. He believed a lasting solution for Zimbabwe could be reached but criticized Tsvangirai's strategy to push Mugabe out of power too quickly, calling for patience from the international community. Mozambique may be a useful open channel to monitor the efforts of South Africa, the Troika, and the parties involved in the Zimbabwe negotiations. END SUMMARY. -------------- MOZAMBIQUE'S NEW POSITION IN TROIKA -------------- ¶2. (C) Baloi explained that Mozambique's return to the SADC Organ on Politics, Defense, and Security (the 'Troika') resulted following requests by several SADC members, including South Africa. According to the standard rotation of SADC members on the Troika, Mozambique was not scheduled to join until 2013, but their increased involvement was viewed as beneficial by other SADC members. Speaking frankly, Baloi stated that Swaziland's King Mswati III had little influence and that Angolan President dos Santos was rarely available leaving the defacto leadership to Mozambique. Baloi criticized Botswana's statements against Mugabe "which flagrantly contradicted SADC" but said Mozambique pressed other member-states to treat Botswana normally. -------------- TROIKA MEDIATION PARALLELED 28th SADC SUMMIT -------------- ¶3. (C) Baloi confirmed media reports that the Troika carried out Zimbabwe-related mediation during the August 16-17 SADC summit, describing the complex deliberative process with the various stakeholders within Tsvangirai's MDC and Mugabe's ZANU-PF. Baloi stated that he believes that the worst of the crisis is over, that Tsvangirai's MDC will gain some, but not all, real power, and that recent events at the opening of Zimbabwe's Parliament prove that the balance of power is shifting, albeit slowly. -------------- MUGABE LUCID, PRISONER TO INTERNAL FACTIONS -------------- ¶4. (C) Based on his 90-minute conversation with President Mugabe on July 16, Baloi described Mugabe as lucid and statesmanlike. Baloi believes that Mugabe is essentially controlled by internal factions in his government, namely the military, intelligence service, and police. He argued that for any real political compromise to be reached, these powerful factions needed to be taken into account. Baloi stated that the Troika was making inroads with these three groups. The Foreign Minister thought Tsvangirai's strategy of trying to force Mugabe out of power too quickly was a bad one, as it does not take into account the other forces controlling the President. "You can't expect to change Zimbabwe by simply getting rid of Mugabe. The situation is complex, like in Pakistan, where removing Musharraf did not change the reality on the ground." Baloi said the negotiations would continue under the stewardship of President Mbeki, but the Troika would provide assistance with specific diplomatic interventions. -------------- MOZAMBIQUE'S PERSPECTIVE ON POWER SHARING -------------- ¶5. (C) Baloi raised concerns that the international community is overly impatient with the pace of the Zimbabwean negotiations, counseling greater patience. He thought that "the worst is over," but that the negotiations involve big differences, with each side is slowly moving in phases towards compromise, and that undue external pressure is prejudicial. According to Baloi, Mozambique is trying to slow Mugabe's current move to form a Cabinet without the MAPUTO 00000857 002 OF 002 involvement of Tsvangirai. The Foreign Minister thought that Tsvangirai was "getting some bad advice" and was saying one thing "to his international advisors" and something different within Zimbabwe. Baloi claimed that Mozambique experienced a similar situation with RENAMO leader Afonso Dhlakama when negotiating the peace accord which ended Mozambique's civil war in 1992. -------------- COMMENT: AN OPEN CHANNEL ON ZIMBABWE? -------------- ¶6. (C) Baloi is clearly pleased by Mozambique's addition to the SADC Troika: "we have been working hard" he said with a grin. He is also willing to discuss the inner-workings of the ongoing SADC negotiations within Zimbabwe and welcomes further contacts with Washington officials. Chapman