IN SADC TROIKA, MOZAMBIQUE UNLIKELY TO PRESSURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MAPUTO 000802 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV MZ ZI SUBJECT: IN SADC TROIKA, MOZAMBIQUE UNLIKELY TO PRESSURE MUGABE PUBLICLY REF: MAPUTO 781 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Todd Amani, Reasons 1.4(b+d) ¶1. (SBU) On August 16 and 17, the 28th Summit of the SADC Heads of State and Government in South Africa elected Mozambican President Armando Guebuza as Deputy Chairperson of the SADC Organ on Politics, Defense, and Security Cooperation. Guebeza is part of a "troika" that includes former chair Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos and newly-elected chair Swaziland King Mswati III. The troika is tasked with issues of SADC sovereignty, peacekeeping, and political stability, and according to GRM Foreign Minister Oldemiro Baloi the troika is "the most important" organ within SADC. Despite international pressure however, the SADC troika failed to make any headway on resolving Zimbabwe's crisis in the past year, though it did hold an extraordinary meeting on the issue on the margins of the summit. ¶2. (C) While Baloi's August 18 statement also suggested that SADC members chose Mozambique for reasons of political stability, good international image, and economic success, MFA contacts have told poloffs that there was no specific motive behind the GRM getting the nod as the deputy chair. Rather, contacts suggest that the troika informally rotates among members on a regular basis, pointing to Mozambique's previous experience in the troika in 2000 under former President Chissano,s administration. ¶3. (C) Even so, SADC's choice of Mozambique could be seen as a move by member countries who view Mozambique as a historical ally of Zimbabwe. While some local commentators argue that the GRM's unwillingness to make public statements against the Mugabe administration betrays weakness, SADC members may see Mozambique as a broker that could engage both the ZANU-PF and the MDC behind the scenes. Amani