DUTCH HOLD MEETING ON ZIMBABWE CONTINGENCIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 000648 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC PHUM ZI MZ SUBJECT: DUTCH HOLD MEETING ON ZIMBABWE CONTINGENCIES Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Matthew Roth for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Poloff met with friendly diplomatic missions on July 11 at the Dutch Embassy to discuss contingency planning for any future potential citizen evacuations from Zimbabwe into Mozambique at the Mutare border crossing in Manica province. The Dutch Charge openly expressed his mission's concerns about the need for extensive contingency planning, potential worst-case scenarios, and Mozambique's ability to absorb citizens from Europe and the U.S. Embassy Maputo's planning and coordination with the local warden is well underway. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On July 11, the Dutch Charge chaired a meeting attended by friendly diplomatic missions to discuss contingencies for citizen evacuations from Zimbabwe into Mozambique via the Mutare border crossing. Representatives from the Dutch, Danish, Finnish, French, German, Irish, Portuguese, and Swiss embassies discussed their countries' preparations for a potential evacuation of their citizens. All present agreed that most citizens would choose to exit Zimbabwe to South Africa; however, some living near the Mozambique border may cross from Mutare, Zimbabwe and proceed east to Chimoio and Beira. -------------- THOUSANDS OF E.U. CITIZENS STILL IN ZIMBABWE -------------- ¶3. (C) The Finnish conoff circulated a list published on 27 June 2008 of the estimated number of EU citizens still resident in Zimbabwe. Several consular officers from EU-member countries commented that these numbers appeared high. While most countries have very few nationals who remain in Zimbabwe, among the more significant numbers are Cyprus with 900, Germany with 800-1,000, Greece with 1,200, Italy with 1,000, the Netherlands with 600, Portugal with 1,300, and Britain and Ireland with an estimated combined total of 14,000 nationals. While not present at the meeting, the UK has contracted Kellogg Brown and Root (KBR) to manage their preparations to evacuate citizens from Zimbabwe. The UK have a significant number of elderly longterm residents of Zimbabwe who may pose particular evacuation challenges due to their poor health and immobility. Representatives from other Embassies commented that many of their citizens still in Zimbabwe are veterans of hardship and are unlikely to leave, even under dire circumstances. -------------- WORST-CASE SCENARIOS -------------- ¶4. (C) The Dutch Charge raised several general scenarios which could result in a mass exodus of foreign nationals from Zimbabwe, or at least complicate evacuations. He raised the possibility that the Government of Zimbabwe could demand that all foreigners leave, and also emphasized Dutch concerns that the Zimbabwean youth militias, who remain unpaid, could begin to target foreigners. Finally, he pointed out that any evacuation of the capital would likely be done by car as the airport in Harare was not secure and susceptible to sabotage. -------------- -------------- CAN MOZAMBIQUE ABSORB BORDER CROSSERS AT CHIMOIO? -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) The Dutch Charge expressed concern about Mozambique's capability to absorb foreign nationals from the Mutare border crossing, including a lack of sufficient hotel rooms, fuel, and banking infrastructure in Chimoio, the first major town after the Mutare border. He also questioned the capacity of the Mozambican immigration authorities to process significant numbers of foreign nationals at the border. He further called on all diplomatic representatives present to ensure that they had planned for sufficient shelter, food, water, fuel, funds, and general consular assistance should there be significant evacuations from Zimbabwe into Mozambique. -------------- COMMENT: CONTINGENCY PLANNING UNDERWAY -------------- ¶6. (C) All diplomatic representatives at the meeting outlined their contingency plans for large-scale evacuations of their citizens from Zimbabwe. Dutch concerns about a paucity of Mozambican resources to absorb outflows of citizens who currently remain in Zimbabwe are well-founded. Conoff has considered the lack of resources around the Mutare border crossing and plans to recommend that Amcits continue moving east to the port city of Beira which can accommodate larger numbers of potential evacuees. Conoff is in contact MAPUTO 00000648 002 OF 002 with the local warden at Chimoio and stands ready to provide additional consular support if needed. Chapman