GRACA MACHEL: AN INSIDER'S VIEW OF POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 000538

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL MZ
SUBJECT: GRACA MACHEL: AN INSIDER'S VIEW OF POLITICAL
INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

Classified By: Classified by Charge d'Affaires Todd C. Chapman, Reasons
1.4(b+d)


1. (C) Summary: Former First Lady of Mozambique Graca Machel
told the Charge May 27 that the recent xenophobic violence in
South Africa has severely damaged relations between
Mozambique and South Africa. Referring to the recent history
of violence in Kenya, Zimbabwe, and South Africa, Machel
noted that Mozambicans will not be allowed to say "we didn't
see it coming if and when it happens here." She said that
Mozambican society and government should prepare for civil
unrest while attempting to head it off. Machel believes that
SADC leaders, fearing that they may one day suffer the same
fate as Mugabe in upcoming elections, protect each other
rather than take care of their people. She also said that
culturally acceptable prevention techniques are needed in
HIV/AIDS prevention programs. Her comments show a clear
perception of Mozambique's challenges based on insider
knowledge, and we take her concerns about the country's
stability seriously. End Summary.

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S. AFRICA-MOZAMBICAN RELATIONS SEVERELY DAMAGED
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2. (C) In a May 27 meeting with Charge, USAID Mission
Director and Poloff, Former First Lady of Mozambique Graca
Machel, who is married to South Africa's former president
Nelson Mandela, said that relations between South Africa and
Mozambique have been greatly strained by the recent
xenophobic violence against foreigners in South Africa. She
said that South Africans need to search their souls;
identifying the causes and what the violence means for their
country. She commented that the thousands of Mozambicans
still in South Africa remain angry and will not easily cool
down; instead they are ready to react violently to any
provocation. She indicated that Mozambicans are angry for
having been "treated as animals."

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FORESEEABLE CIVIL UNREST IN MOZAMBIQUE
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3. (C) Machel said that the success of the February 5 riots
in turning back transport prices, the existence of a new
cohort of angry, unemployed Mozambicans recently returned
from South Africa, and the inevitable increase in fuel and
food prices are a volatile mix; Mozambique could easily
explode. She stated that all elements of Mozambican society
must be prepared to respond to violence as well as attempt to
defuse it. Referring to the recent history of violence in
Kenya, Zimbabwe, and South Africa, Machel noted that
Mozambicans will not be allowed to say "we didn't see it
coming if and when it happens here."

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SADC LEADERS FEAR MUGABE'S FATE AWAITS THEM?
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4. (C) Graca Machel agreed with the Charge that Mozambican
political leaders are not speaking out sufficiently about the
crisis in Zimbabwe. Criticizing the practice of "silent
diplomacy," she said that the leaders are protecting each
other at the expense of their people; she is "angry but not
confused" by their actions. She indicated that SADC leaders
are acting out of fear that they will suffer the same fate as
Mugabe in their own upcoming elections.

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HIV/AIDS PREVENTION NEEDS A NEW APPROACH
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5. (U) The Charge discussed the over USD $1 billion of
PEPFAR funding that the USG is anticipated to provide to
Mozambique over the next five years, opening the door to new
approache