GRACA MACHEL: AN INSIDER'S VIEW OF POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 000538 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL MZ SUBJECT: GRACA MACHEL: AN INSIDER'S VIEW OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERN AFRICA Classified By: Classified by Charge d'Affaires Todd C. Chapman, Reasons 1.4(b+d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Former First Lady of Mozambique Graca Machel told the Charge May 27 that the recent xenophobic violence in South Africa has severely damaged relations between Mozambique and South Africa. Referring to the recent history of violence in Kenya, Zimbabwe, and South Africa, Machel noted that Mozambicans will not be allowed to say "we didn't see it coming if and when it happens here." She said that Mozambican society and government should prepare for civil unrest while attempting to head it off. Machel believes that SADC leaders, fearing that they may one day suffer the same fate as Mugabe in upcoming elections, protect each other rather than take care of their people. She also said that culturally acceptable prevention techniques are needed in HIV/AIDS prevention programs. Her comments show a clear perception of Mozambique's challenges based on insider knowledge, and we take her concerns about the country's stability seriously. End Summary. -------------- -- ¶S. AFRICA-MOZAMBICAN RELATIONS SEVERELY DAMAGED -------------- -- ¶2. (C) In a May 27 meeting with Charge, USAID Mission Director and Poloff, Former First Lady of Mozambique Graca Machel, who is married to South Africa's former president Nelson Mandela, said that relations between South Africa and Mozambique have been greatly strained by the recent xenophobic violence against foreigners in South Africa. She said that South Africans need to search their souls; identifying the causes and what the violence means for their country. She commented that the thousands of Mozambicans still in South Africa remain angry and will not easily cool down; instead they are ready to react violently to any provocation. She indicated that Mozambicans are angry for having been "treated as animals." -------------- FORESEEABLE CIVIL UNREST IN MOZAMBIQUE -------------- ¶3. (C) Machel said that the success of the February 5 riots in turning back transport prices, the existence of a new cohort of angry, unemployed Mozambicans recently returned from South Africa, and the inevitable increase in fuel and food prices are a volatile mix; Mozambique could easily explode. She stated that all elements of Mozambican society must be prepared to respond to violence as well as attempt to defuse it. Referring to the recent history of violence in Kenya, Zimbabwe, and South Africa, Machel noted that Mozambicans will not be allowed to say "we didn't see it coming if and when it happens here." -------------- SADC LEADERS FEAR MUGABE'S FATE AWAITS THEM? -------------- ¶4. (C) Graca Machel agreed with the Charge that Mozambican political leaders are not speaking out sufficiently about the crisis in Zimbabwe. Criticizing the practice of "silent diplomacy," she said that the leaders are protecting each other at the expense of their people; she is "angry but not confused" by their actions. She indicated that SADC leaders are acting out of fear that they will suffer the same fate as Mugabe in their own upcoming elections. -------------- HIV/AIDS PREVENTION NEEDS A NEW APPROACH -------------- ¶5. (U) The Charge discussed the over USD $1 billion of PEPFAR funding that the USG is anticipated to provide to Mozambique over the next five years, opening the door to new approache