"VIRTUAL" TECHNOLOGIES MEET POLITICAL AND POPULAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 000473 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ECPS MZ SUBJECT: "VIRTUAL" TECHNOLOGIES MEET POLITICAL AND POPULAR PROTESTS REF: MAPUTO 171 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Poloff Mary Walz for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The stage is set for modern communications technologies to play a key role in future protests in Mozambique. Cell phone ownership is increasingly common and internet access is growing rapidly. Demonstrators honed their skills and began to see the power of managing civil protest with new technologies during the February 5 riots (reftel). Blogs allow like-minded individuals to interact, discuss ideas and develop manifestos in safety and anonymity. Senior government officials may not be technologically savvy enough to understand the potential of virtual communication; the GRM lacks the technological sophistication to effectively censor internet and cell phone communication. When protests happen again, new communication strategies may magnify the impact of civil disturbance, with the GRM unable to respond effectively. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- MOBILE COMMUNICATION INCREASES PROTEST EFFECTIVENESS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Cell phone usage is rapidly increasing in Mozambique nearly doubling from 6 per 100 people in 2005 to 11.6 per 100 in 2007; the simple technology is readily grasped even by those with only minimal formal education. During civil unrest in February in response to an increase in bus fares, protesters used cell phones to stay in constant contact. This allowed protesters to move freely, sharing information about the location of police so blockades could be avoided and multiplying the availability of ideas to effectively carry out protests. Ordinary people SMS'd comments around the country about the GRM's failure to address the protests effectively. -------------- --- INTERNET FOMENTS POLITICAL DISCUSSION, CRITICISM -------------- --- ¶3. (C) Nearly all business people and government officials, mid-level and above, have both business and personal e-mail addresses, implying ready access to the internet. Donors are strengthening country capacity by, among other things, creating internet access throughout the country at schools and in local community centers. A Dubai company has proposed setting up computer centers, free to all, for on-line English language classes. ¶4. (C) Blogging provides a safe, sometimes anonymous, forum, unlimited by distance, for people from all parts of the country to debate ideas and identify common interests. Carlos Serra, an eminent Mozambican sociologist, provided an hour by hour update of the protests on his blog (Note: Serra's blog was especially important during the protests given that state-controlled media reduced coverage of the protests to the bare minimum. End note.); post-protest he has been using the blog to analyze the underlying reasons for the protests and to predict what the protests mean for the future. A rising star within opposition party Renamo, Ivone Soares, recently started a personal blog aimed at youth like herself, using it to set forth Renamo's position on the protests and other matters. -------------- GRM UNABLE TO CONTROL NEW MEDIA -------------- ¶5. (C) Senior government officials, mostly older veterans of Mozambique's civil war, have long attempted to control the traditional media, including the government-run television, radio and newspaper, but have not shown an interest in monitoring or controlling the internet or cell phone communications. While cell phones and the internet are easy to use, control of them requires a technological sophistication that the GRM may not have. It is not clear that officials recognize the potential of the unlimited communication provided by the internet and cell phones. -------------- -------------- COMMENT: NEXT PROTESTS COULD BE EVEN MORE EFFECTIVE -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) COMMENT: The February 5 riots taught its leaders about the power of electronic communications. The next MAPUTO 00000473 002 OF 002 round of civil unrest could be even more effective: intellectual bloggers could provide the justification and aid preliminary planning, demonstrations could be guided by cell-phone connected leaders, and the new media could even more effectively disseminate updates on protests. This type of demonstration could take the GRM completely by surprise, magnifying the impact of the demonstrations. END COMMENT Chapman