NOV 19 ELECTION TRANSPARENT WITH SOME PROBLEMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001291 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV MZ SUBJECT: NOV 19 ELECTION TRANSPARENT WITH SOME PROBLEMS REF: A. MAPUTO 1250 ¶B. MAPUTO 1190 ¶C. MAPUTO 1083 Classified By: A/DCM HARLAND REX FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The December 4, 2008 national announcement of municipal election results confirmed the landslide victory of majority party Frelimo which won at least 41 of the 43 mayoral races and majorities in 42 of 43 municipal assemblies. Voter turnout was high for a municipal election, with strong turnout in areas with hotly contested elections. Some fraud was detected in the course of the election, though objections filed by minority party Renamo are not expected to be upheld, which will allow the announced results to stand. The 89-member International Observer Mission, organized by the UNDP, including nearly 30 U.S. observers, played a key role in keeping elections transparent. A coalition of nine civil society organizations, led by EISA, a regional democracy and governance NGO, carried out a parallel vote tabulation (PVT) in 13 municipalities, fielding 650 observers in an effort to further increase transparency. Overall, the election marks a weakening of multi-party democracy here, suggesting an even greater need for dedicated observer funding in the 2009 national elections. -------------- --- FRELIMO LANDSLIDE CONFIRMED; INDEPENDENT WINS IN BEIRA -------------- --- ¶2. (U) The National Election Commission (CNE) formally announced the results of the November 19, 2008 municipal elections, confirming the landslide win of majority party Frelimo and a significant blow to Renamo country-wide. Frelimo won all but two of the mayoral elections; with neither candidate receiving the necessary majority in Nacala and, so, a run-off election will be held. In Beira, independent candidate Daviz Simango easily won re-election (NOTE: Simango was the Renamo candidate in his initial election but Renamo chose not to re-nominate him for the 2009 election END NOTE). -------------- -------------- FRELIMO DOMINATES MUNICIPAL ASSEMBLIES, NOT ALWAYS FAIRLY -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) The ruling Frelimo party used the municipal elections to effectively consolidate its power and dominate the municipal councils with majorities in 42 of 43 assemblies; in Beira no party won a majority. Renamo has no representative in the assemblies of 9 municipalities and only one representative 8 others. Races were close in Nacala, Gurue and Marromeu; a run-off was avoided in Gurue when 94 votes ruled null by the local election officials were reevaluated by the CNE. The CNE credited 66 to the Frelimo candidate giving him exactly 50 per cent of the vote, the minimum necessary to win the election. -------------- NULL VOTES AND THE ISLAND OF MISCONDUCT -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The issue of null votes, where voting sheets have marks for more than one candidate, appears to be an avenue for fraudulent conduct, and the high percentage of null votes in some municipalities of this year's election point to potentially fraudulent conduct in Ilha de Mocambique, Monapo, Nacala, and Beira. While the national average for null votes was 3.3 percent, in Ilha de Mocambique and Monapo the null vote average was over 8 percent, with obvious examples of entire groups of votes for Renamo having being invalidated by adding a mark to the same location on a series of ballots. Ilha de Mocambique was described as the "island of misconduct" by observers who witnessed purposeful invalidation of ballots, ballot box stuffing, willful involvement of election officials in fraud, early closing of polls to exclude waiting voters, and an organized effort to prevent Renamo supporters from voting. -------------- FRELIMO ENSURES GOVERNMENT SUPPORT OF PARTY -------------- ¶5. (SBU) International observers noted that much of the work to assure the landslide win for Frelimo took place before the election, with reported use of Government property during the campaign were widespread, particularly the use of Government vehicles. Renamo also used Government vehicles, but only in a few areas, such as Ilha de Mocambique. Government and parastatal employees were urged by their management to attend Frelimo party rallies during business hours, linking promotion and advancement to voting for Frelimo. Campaign MAPUTO 00001291 002 OF 002 advertisements for Frelimo were put up in hospitals and other Government facilities. Most senior government officials were sent out on the campaign trail during the 15 days prior to the November 19 elections at Government expense. -------------- VOTER TURNOUT STRONG, BEST IN HOTLY CONTESTED RACES -------------- ¶6. (U) Voter turnout overall was 46 percent, nearly twice as high as in the 2003 municipal elections when the turnout was 28 percent. By comparison, 43 percent of eligible voters went to the polls in the 2004 national elections. In this year's hard-fought elections turnout was higher: 57 percent in Beira and 46 percent in Nacala. Voters generally defied predictions, waiting for hours in the hot sun in order to exercise their right in this important municipal election. -------------- ELECTIONS RESULTS TO STAND, DESPITE RENAMO OBJECTIONS -------------- ¶7. (SBU) National and international observers from nine civil society organizations and fifteen diplomatic missions described the elections as "transparent" and "well conducted," noting several specific problems in the electoral process, particularly on Ilha de Mocambique and Nacala. Renamo filed objections, alleging irregularities at several polling stations, though it is unlikely that these objections will be upheld as they were not filed immediately, as required by law, but only after a press conference held several days following the election. Unless the objections are upheld, considered by most to be unlikely, the announced results will stand. -------------- - COMMENT: MULTI-PARTY DEMOCRACY WEAK, OBSERVERS NEEDED -------------- - ¶8. (C) The Frelimo landslide can be attributed, in part, to the failure of Renamo to actively campaign, though the ruling-party's long-term strategy should be credited as well (Ref A). Many political insiders suggest that these elections are the end of Renamo as a viable political party. This, coupled with the rising star of Daviz Simango, may be the best hope for multi-party democracy in Mozambique. However, any new opposition party formed is not likely be viable in the short term, suggesting that Frelimo will have unchecked control over the political landscape for at least the near future. -------------- -------------- ACTION REQUEST: FUNDING TO OBSERVE 2009 ELECTIONS -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) The mostly non-violent, largely transparent elections can be attributed in part to the presence of national and international observers at key polling locations who sent a message that the world was watching, creating an environment in which it felt safe to report problems and address misfeasance, resulting in what many are calling the cleanest elections in Mozambique's history. The U.S. Mission was able to field an observer team of nearly 30 members, the largest of any diplomatic mission, throughout the country without the support of specific election observer funding. The success of the 2008 international observer efforts was due primarily to USG leadership and commitment of resources. The 2009 national elections will be another critical step on the path to full multi-party democracy in Mozambique, particularly if independent Daviz Simango chooses to run for President. If this is the case, a much greater presence of diplomatic and civil society observers will be needed in the 2009 national elections, requiring significant additional funding for the U.S. to maintain its leadership role with respect to democracy and governance. Chapman