GRM'S RECENT MOVES ON ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001182

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ZI MZ
SUBJECT: GRM'S RECENT MOVES ON ZIMBABWE

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Todd C. Chapman, Reasons 1.5(b+d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Carlos Simango, a close advisor to
Mozambican President Armando Guebuza told the Charge on 11/27
that the Secretary General of the ruling FRELIMO party met in
South Africa with leaders of other liberation movements in
the region to press ZANU-PF to accept MDC control--with
ZANU-PF sharing power--of Zimbabwe's Interior Ministry. He
said that SADC leaders feel that a sudden exit from power by
Mugabe could destabilize Zimbabwe further, and that Guebuza
believes MDC,s Morgan Tsvangarai is afraid to take on the
Prime Minister slot. Separately, another contact told the
Charge that the GRM is furious with Graca Machel's work with
Jimmy Carter and Kofi Annan, which is seen as undermining the
GRM's efforts. Simango said that Guebuza feels the only USG
message he hears now is that Mugabe must go, and suggested
that the Charge meet with Guebuza next week to discuss ways
the USG can help. Should this meeting be scheduled, specific
talking points from Washington will be requested. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) Carlos Simango, a close advisor to President Guebuza,
called on Thanksgiving Day morning and asked to see the
Charge with a certain urgency. Simango went to the Charge's
home to provide an update on the latest developments in SADC
efforts to resolve the political impasse in Zimbabwe.

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Veterans of Regional Liberation Movements Meet
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3. (C) He reported that the Secretary General of the FRELIMO
Party, Felipe Paunde, was sent by Guebuza to meet in South
Africa with senior party officials from the ANC, ZANU-PF, and
MPLN on Tuesday, November 25. Other participants included
"regional veterans of the liberation movements" who have
known Mugabe for a long time. There Paunde was instructed to
press the ZANU-PF leaders on the importance of getting Mugabe
to relinquish control of the Interior Ministry so as not to
scuttle the tentative power-sharing agreement with MDC. The
SADC summit proposal for the two sides to share leadership of
the Ministry, Paunde argued, could be achieved in many ways,
including an MDC representative as minister but a ZANU-PF
representative as the commander of the police, or some other
variation. When the Charge asked about the presence of
government officials at the meeting, Simango replied,
"Remember that it is the political parties, and not
necessarily the governments, that run regional affairs." The
Charge asked what the conclusions of the meeting were.
Simango said that all agreed, including the senior ZANU-PF
leaders, that Mugabe must allow the MDC to lead the interior
ministry in order to ease the political tensions and to allow
increased humanitarian assistance to flow into Zimbabwe.
Simango again claimed that the (unidentified) ZANU-PF
representatives at this meeting agreed with the conclusions.

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Concern that Mugabe's Sudden Exit Could Worsen Conflict
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4. (C) When asked if the humanitarian argument would have
any influence on Mugabe, Simango said, "No, for him it has
nothing to do with the people of Zimbabwe-it is all about
power. We understand that." He continued that Guebuza and
other regional leaders clearly comprehend that Mugabe must be
removed from power in Zimbabwe, but believe that his
immediate and abrupt departure would unleash political forces
that would plunge the country into further chaos and
violence. Therefore, a period, however awkward, in sharing
power was important to give the political scenario time to be
redrawn.

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Guebuza Doubts Tsvangarai Ready for Power
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5. (C) Simango said that Guebuza believed that Tsvangarai
was actually scared to assume the position of Prime Minister.
Simango reported that in Guebuza's meeting with Tsvangarai
in Harare a few weeks ago, Tsvangarai spent much of the time
upon his need for a diplomatic passport rather than a regular
passport. Guebueza told Tsvangarai that as Prime Minister,
he certainly would get a diplomatic passport, but that he had
to become the Prime Minister first. As the discussion became
a circular one, Guebueza concluded that Tsvangarai was afraid
and not really sure what he wanted. Simango also said that
Guebuza was increasingly frustrated with the South African
government, which had not handled its own transition well and
was not really supporting Mbeki's ongoing mediation role.


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GRM Furious with Graca Machel's "Grandstanding"
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6. (C) Separately from this meeting with Simango, another
well-connected source reported on November 26 to the Charge
that the GRM was furious with Graca Machel for
"grandstanding" with Kofi Annan and Jimmy Carter in South
Africa. The source noted that as a senior FRELIMO leader,
she was undermining the diplomatic work of not only SADC in
general, but that of President Guebuza specifically.

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COMMENT/ACTION: Guebuza Wants to Discuss U.S. Help in Zim
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7. (C) The Charge again reiterated that the United States
would like to be helpful in reaching a solution in Zimbabwe.
Simango said that Guebuza is concerned that the only message
he is hearing from the USG is that "Mugabe must go now," and
that this was not the SADC view, nor did leaders believe that
this would promote regional stability. Mozambique, through
Guebuza and Foreign Minister Oldemiro Baloi, remains actively
engaged in seeking solutions in Zimbabwe. As the Mozambicans
tell it, Guebuza is perhaps the only head of state who, given
their decades long relationship, can still speak directlywith
Mugabe. Simango suggested that the Charge meet with Guebuza
in the coming week to discuss concrete ways in which the
United States could be helpful in Zimbabwe. Should this
meeting be scheduled, specific talking points from Washington
will be requested.
Chapman