RUSSIA AND MOZAMBIQUE: STILL COMRADES?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001070

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID RU MZ
SUBJECT: RUSSIA AND MOZAMBIQUE: STILL COMRADES?


1. (C) SUMMARY: With a long history of cooperation during
the Soviet era, Russia maintains a nominal official presence
in Mozambique, with an eye towards natural resource
exploration and garnering support for its international
policies. The bilateral trade imbalance leans in
Mozambique's favor, and Russia focuses its aid efforts on
providing training in Russia to a small number of Mozambicans
and supporting a few health programs. Some members of the
Government of Mozambique (GRM) and the ruling FRELIMO party
remain sympathetic to Russia, and even speak favorably of the
re-emergence of Russia's political and military strength as a
counterbalance to Western powers. Younger generations,
particularly in Maputo, appear to have little affinity
towards Russia or allegiance to Mozambique,s former ally.
END SUMMARY.

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HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP
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2. (C) Econoff met recently with third secretary Mikhail
Bronnikov from the Russian Embassy in Maputo to discuss
Russia's presence in Mozambique. The official expressed
interest in additional information on U.S. foreign assistance
projects, but had little to report on their bilateral
relationship. The Soviets provided significant military
training and equipment during Mozambique's civil war, which
ended in 1992. Ideologically, the Soviet Union shaped
Mozambique's socialist agenda during the liberation struggle
and the early years of indepence, though the GRM abandoned
socialism in practice in the mid-1980's. While the GRM
leadership moved towards open market and democratic
ideologies, vestiges of the Soviet influence remain in some
laws, regulations, and rhetoric. Despite Mozambique's
negative experiences with Soviet-inspired Marxist-Leninist
ideologies, some older GRM officials from the ruling FRELIMO
party speak favorably of the re-emergence of Russia's
political and military strength, claiming that Russia acts as
a counterbalance to Western powers, whom they still view with
some skepticism despite large donor and FDI inflows.
Although in the past the GRM viewed the Soviet state as its
natural ally, most Mozambicans have negative memories of food
shortages and rationing under the planned economy system,
while others consider the Soviets to be racist, faulting them
for rarely mingling with Mozambicans and maintaining
segregated lifestyles while working on projects here.

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RUSSIAN COOPERATION IN MOZAMBIQUE
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3. (S/NF) Bronnikov told Econoff that Russia's mission in
Mozambique is small and limited, focusing on multi-lateral
cooperation, as well as technical training in the areas of
military science, geology, history, and physics. He
indicated that Russia is interested in mining precious stones
and minerals, though no Russian mining companies are known to
be operational in Mozambique. Bronnikov spoke of a 2008
mission of Russian energy analysts to Mozambique, although he
did not disclose the specific purpose of the mission. (Note:
The Russian mission in Maputo only has seven officially
accredited diplomats, yet the physical footprint of the
embassy and the number of Russians that appear to hold
professional-level positions there would suggest a much
larger contingent. A sizeable intelligence component is
presumed. End note.)

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PERSPECTIVES ON GEORGIA
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4. (C) On multilateral issues, Russia may be trying to gain
the GRM's support in the international arena. Photographs of
the conflict in Georgia displayed at the entrance of the
Russian Embassy are accompanied by language accusing the
Georgians of perpetrating violence and encouraging civil
unrest in the region. At the height of the conflict, Russian
Ambassador Igor V. Popov made a rare public appearance,
speaking at length about the tense relations between Georgia
and Russia at the School of International Studies in Maputo,
and recently gave the entire diplomatic community a non-paper
stating Russia's perspectives. The GRM has not made any
public statements on the conflict in Georgia.

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RUSSIAN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN MOZAMBIQUE
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5. (C) Bronnikov told Econoff that trade between Mozambique

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and Russia remains limited. Export/import data exhibit wide
variations. According to the GRM, Mozambique exports $5.05
million to Russia while importing $1.2 million. Data from
the UN comtrade database states the trade relationship as
much higher with Mozambique exporting some $31.4 million to
Russia, with imports at $11.3 million. The IMF puts
Mozambique's 2007 fob exports to Russia at $16.5 million, and
imports from Russia at $4.9 million. In spite of the
variations, the data do seem to indicate there is a trade
imbalance in favor of Mozambique. According to the
Mozambican Center for the Promotion of Investment (CPI),
there has been no direct Russian investment in Mozambique
since 2004. In March however, the Russian-Dutch joint
venture Salym Petroleum Development (SPD-a joint venture set
up in 1996 between Russia's Evikhon and Shell Oil) announced
that it will drill two offshore exploration wells in Sofala
Bay with the option of an additional four wells on behalf of
partner and concession-holder SASOL of South Africa.

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RUSSO-U.S. COOPERATION IN HEALTH AND EDUCATION?
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6. (C) Bronnikov raised the possibility of U.S.-Russian
cooperation in Mozambique, particularly in the areas of
health and education. According to Bronnikov, Russia donates
$8.62 million to the World Bank and World Health Organization
to combat malaria in Mozambique and provides 25 scholarships,
three of which are for post-graduate work in Russian
institutions. The Russian Ambassador recently expressed
similar interest to the Charge, especially inquiring about
malaria programs, and a courtesy call to touch on this issue
is planned for late November.

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COMMENT: RUSSIAN INFLUENCE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
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7. (C) While overt Russian influence in Mozambique appears
to be at a near-historic low, Russia seems more focused on
Mozambique's support in multilateral forums. However, in
such situations, voting patterns indicate that Mozambique is
much more likely to side with influential neighbor South
Africa than Russia. Fondness for Russia and a certain level
of skepticism towards the West will likely continue so long
as Mozambique's old guard remains in power. The younger
generations of Mozambicans, however, have little affinity
towards Russia or allegiance to Mozambique's former ally.
Even so, undoing the ideological impact of the Soviet
experience, particularly in the areas of land and labor
regulation reform, will continue to be a slow process.
Chapman