MOZAMBIQUE EYES MEGA-PROJECTS IN ENERGY AND MINING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MAPUTO 001051 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE PLEASE PASS USAID STATE PLEASE PASS USGS STATE PLEASE PASS DOE FOR SPEARL AND PERSON DEPT FOR AF/S, AF/EPS, AND EEB/ESC AND CBA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ENRG EPET EMIN EINV ETRD SENV MZ SF SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE EYES MEGA-PROJECTS IN ENERGY AND MINING REF: A. MAPUTO 1018 ¶B. MAPUTO 972 ¶1. (U) This cable is part of a series in an innovative collaboration in energy/resource reporting and commercial advocacy between Embassies Maputo and Pretoria. Embassy Pretoria Minerals/Energy Officer and Maputo Political/Economic officer visited energy/minerals projects in northern Tete Province and met relevant government and private officials in Maputo October 13-17, 2008. ¶2. (SBU) Summary: Mozambique is seeking to develop an ambitious list of mega-projects that would expand its energy exporter status and develop its relatively untapped minerals potential. Mozambique has remarkable hydroelectric potential symbolized by the formidable 2075 MW Cahora Bassa dam in the north, which exports to South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Botswana (Ref A). The country seeks to expand coal and gas potential for both export and power generation. The Ministry of Energy has hired Norwegian firm Norconsult to do a far-reaching feasibility study of Mozambique's power generation options, preliminary findings of which were presented on October 24. Realizing significant electricity generation and transmission projects will require an extraordinary level of cooperation between South Africa, its state power utility Eskom, different institutions within Mozambique, and potential financiers. There is a buzz of new investment surrounding a variety of oil/gas (septel) and mining projects, but not all of these will be developed over the near term. The Embassy team visited hydroelectric and coal projects in Tete Province October 13-14. End Summary. -------------- Zambezi Basin and Hydroelectric Potential -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Based on the assumption that both the domestic and regional market for electricity will continue to grow, the Ministry of Energy hired Norconsult, a Norwegian consulting firm, to complete a Generation Master Plan for Mozambique to identify least-cost generation solutions earlier this year. Domestically, Mozambique has seen a 250 percent increase in the number of electrified houses since 2002, and expects to see continued growth in commercial electricity consumption, which has increased at a rate of 8 percent since 2004. �0A;Norconsult contacts told Poloff that they estimate commercial demand for electricity will increase by 200 percent by 2020 (not including the Mozal aluminum smelter or its planned expansion projects). Regionally, projected economic growth for the SADC region means that demand will continue to increase, and that growth will likely be based on both the future price and availability of electricity in the region. ¶4. (SBU) Mozambique has long claimed to have 14,000 MW of hydroelectric potential, mostly on the Zambezi River, including the existing 2,075 MW Cahora Bassa dam and power generation facility. A senior Electricity of Mozambique (EDM) team briefed Emboffs on the state power utility's vision for new power generation and transmission to feed both domestic and regional growth. The EDM team touted 12,000 MW of available hydroelectric potential. First, the existing Cahora Bassa hydroelectric (HCB) project could be expanded by 850 to 1245 MW with new facilities on the north bank, using the existing dam. Parastatals EDM and HCB would sponsor this potential $800 million-plus investment. The most advance greenfield hydroelectric project is Mphanda Nkuwa, 60 kilometers downstream from Cahora Bassa on the Zambezi and targeting 1500 to 2000 MW of power generation capacity at an investment of $2.5 billion. The project developers EDM, Brazilian group Camaro Correia, and Mozambican company Energia Capital have completed an early feasibility study. ¶5. (SBU) Based on their feasibility study of 16 viable hydro-electric projects in Mozambique, Norconsult's interim MAPUTO 00001051 002 OF 004 findings conclude that developing the North Bank project at Cahora Bassa (HCB) represents the least-cost option for increasing generation in terms of hydrology, geology, environmental impact, construction costs, and financing risks. Mphanda Nkuwa represents a second higher-cost option in terms of construction and transmission costs. The EDM team separately emphasized the importance of 12-15 small-medium sized (25-200 MW) hydroelectric projects on Zambezi tributaries. Norconsult will look further into the viability of these projects, which will likely have higher associated transmission costs. These projects would be more conducive to being established to service domestic power demand and economic growth. The EDM team hoped that the USG could support development of these smaller scale projects, noting that they had previously made a detailed presentation to USTDA. -------------- Moatize Coal for Export or Power -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Brazilian mining company Vale's (formerly CVRD) management team presented its vision to Emboffs on October 13 for coal development at Moatize in the northern Tete Province. Vale has commenced its three-year development of its 25-year, $1.6 billion investment to exploit 1.8 to 2.4 billion tons of coal resources. The Vale officials stated that the project would employ approximately 4750 Mozambicans, and would produce both high-quality low ash coking coal for export and lower-quality thermal coal for power generation. Vale is currently developing its drilling program and intends to break ground in 2010 for "box-cut" mining of its coal seams, targeting first export in 2011. There will be a three kilometer conveyor belt to the crushing and separation processing facility. Egress of the 8.5 million tons of export coal remains an issue. The favored plan includes using the existing railway spur covering the 600 kilometers to the port at Beira, but that port requires frequent dredging and may possibly include using smaller vessels to transfer loads to larger vessels offshore. In addition, Vale has not completed negotiations with the Indian company Rites and Ircon, who won the concession to rehabilitate and operate the line. The "plan B" would be to build a short connector across Malawi into the rail corridor to the deepwater port at Nacala. ¶7. (SBU) The companion to the Moatize coal project would be the phased 600-2400 MW coal-fired power generation plant with potential investment of $2.5 billion. U.S. firm AES is identified as the lead developer with Vale, Eskom, EDM, and Mozambican investment group Whatana. (Note: Mission has had limited recent contact with AES to confirm its level of commitment to the project. AES failed to complete a contract after being designated preferred bidder for two 500 MW gas-fired earlier this year in South Africa. End Note.) Vale and GOM officials said that AES had won the GOM tender and had signed a framework memorandum of understanding for the project. ¶8. (SBU) Australia's Riversdale Mining is evaluating development of a competing coal project at nearby Benga. Riversdale has submitted a mining study in support of its mining license application to the GOM citing 20 million tons a year of prime hard coking coal and based on a 1.94 billion ton coal resource. Indian steel giant Tata is the 35 percent partner for the mining project. Riversdale has also proposed a phased 450-2000 MW power plant with an initial investment of $900 million. Riversdale is still looking for a strategic partner, but it has involved Elgas, EDM, and Eskom in feasibility discussions. U.S. firm Peabody has confirmed to Emboffs that they are in ongoing negotiations with Vale related to extraction as well as coal-fired generation projects in Tete. Irish mining company Kenmare Resources and Indian companies are also investigating coal opportunities in MAPUTO 00001051 003 OF 004 Tete Province. Mozambique's Center for Promotion of Investment Deputy Director Mussa Usman told Emboffs that all mining licenses had been taken in Tete, so companies were starting to look in other provinces, such as Nyassa. He noted that egress and power remained near-term challenges. -------------- Transmission Challenges -------------- ¶9. (SBU) EDM and other GRM officials support realization of a "back-bone" mega-transmission project to provide coherence, independence, and capacity to its domestic grid, now dependent on the Cahora Bassa/Eskom transmission to power the Mozal Aluminum Smelter, Maputo, and southern Mozambique. The Norconsult feasibility team is comparing scenarios for a 400kV AC grid, a 765kV (and possibly HVDC),or a three 400 kV line transmission system from the Zambezi valley south to the Maputo area to supply domestic demand and free southern Mozambique from a reliance on South African transmission lines. EDM officials called for a phased approach to feasibility, permitting, financing, and development of this important transmission project, which could ultimately cost upwards of $2.5 billion. Officials noted that many of the upcoming mega-projects cannot reach full phased development without parallel development of the new backbone transmission line, indicating that the current transmission grid could only support one additional major power project. For example, development of the Mphanda Nkuwa hydroelectric project would be entirely dependent on development of the backbone to handle expanded generation because the lumpy nature of hydroelectric infrastructure precludes plants from phased-construction. Moreover, gaining power purchase commitments from Eskom would ultimately be necessary to secure private financing for new power mega-projects. CPI's Usman said that EDM was promoting generation by offering a minority stake to private investors, but EDM would have to be the prime developer and share-holder for the backbone transmission project. -------------- Mozambique Can Help Solve Eskom's Woes -------------- ¶10. (SBU) EDM was bullish on Mozambique's potential to help meet Eskom's and the region's electricity shortfalls as a "least cost" option. The EDM management told Emboffs that there was a confluence of four important events: - - Cahora Bassa had completed its restructure, transferring ownership to the GOM, allowing for unlocking the huge potential of the Zambezi; - - Mozambique had attained crucial political and economic stability, after its years of civil war; - - The regional power crisis represented an important opportunity for Mozambique; - - President Armando Guebuza recognized the importance of energy and might serve as an "energy champion" to help nurture these challenging mega-projects. -------------- Other Mega-Projects -------------- ¶11. (SBU) GAS: South African Sasol is aiming to increase Mozambique's exports of gas to South Africa to feed its own mega gas-to-liquids projects in South Africa. Sasol is planning to invest $225 million to increase exploration and output in the Pande and Temane gas fields, which currently already feed a 865 kilometer pipeline to Secunda in South Africa. Sasol is also engaged in on- and off-shore exploration elsewhere in Mozambique. Ministry of Energy National Director Antonio Saide told Emboffs that the GOM is committed to increasing domestic consumption of natural gas for industry and transport. GOM officials also mooted the MAPUTO 00001051 004 OF 004 potential for a MW gas-fired power plant at Muamba, asserting that there were adequate reserves. ¶12. (SBU) HEAVY SANDS: The GOM says investment in mining is booming. Irish Kenmare Resources has started operations of the $450 million Moma titanium mine and smelter south of Nacala. BHP Billiton is developing the $500 million Corridor Sands Titanium Project in Gaza Province in the south. Both these projects have faced challenges and delays in assuring adequate power supply. These projects will produce significant titanium ores: ilmenite, zircon, and rutile. ¶13. (SBU) REFINERIES and more: Interest in the oil and gas sector has made the U.S. the largest foreign investor in Mozambique. U.S. firm Ayr Logistics is the major investor in the development of a $5 billion 300,000 barrel per day refinery near the deepwater port of Nacala in the north. South African Group Five is slotted to do the construction. U.S. firm Anadarko has made a significant commitment to hydrocarbon exploration in the north (septel). The Mozal Aluminum Smelter is seeking to expand, but this would be dependent on adequate power. South Africa has discovered that investment in aluminum smelters no longer makes sense without excess, cheap electricity. Mozambique is hoping to insure that power-intensive investments are still attractive. Mozambique is bullish on ports and associated transport corridors to the interior, working to expand the Maputo, Beira, and Nacala corridors. There are particular hopes for development of the Nacala deepwater port. -------------- COMMENT: POWER GENERATION AND TRANSMISSION A NECESSARY STEP -------------- ¶14. (SBU) The ambitious list of projects identified by the interlocutors will not all come to pass in the near-medium term or perhaps ever, but major expansion of generation and transmission capacity must occur over the next decade to feed domestic growth first, but also regional growth. The GRM is clearly already focused on finding least-cost solutions as made evident by Norconsult's Generation Master Plan. Mozambique will face parallel challenges in putting the disparate pieces together, for example assuring financing and purchase agreements for electricity generation and transmission projects simultaneously; which will likely require strong support from international partners and donors. Given international credit market contraction and Eskom's dicey internal financing, Mozambique's attractive power projects could potentially delay or crowd-out Eskom's aggressive nuclear and coal-fired power build plans if the backbone transmission project is realized. If it makes progress on these ambitious objectives, Mozambique will reap the benefits of commercial and strategic leverage in the region as an energy exporter to power-hungry SADC neighbors, while at the same time ensuring its own economic growth thanks to continued availability of inexpensive electricity and relative energy independence. Mozambique will not only make progress on rural electrification and biofuels (septels),but also provide for expansion in the manufacturing sector. The USG should look at ways to use USTDA, USAID and other tools to contribute to Mozambique's generation and transmission plans. End Comment. Chapman