ANTI-ARROYO PROTESTS STILL LACK CRITICAL MASS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 000521 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS E.O. 12958:N/A TAGS: PGOV KCOR PINR RP SUBJECT: ANTI-ARROYO PROTESTS STILL LACK CRITICAL MASS REF: A. MANILA 517 (MANILA BRACES FOR ANOTHER DEMONSTRATION) ¶B. MANILA 483 (LIMITED PROTESTS MARK ANNIVERSARY) ¶C. MANILA 404 (BRIBERY ALLEGATIONS ROIL ADMINISTRATION) ¶D. MANILA 316 (HOUSE SPEAKER OUSTED) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The presence of high-profile critics of the Arroyo Administration, including former Presidents Corazon Aquino and Joseph Estrada, at a February 29 inter-faith rally failed for the second time this week to create the critical mass of outrage and large-scale support that would result in the resignation of President Arroyo. With the leadership of senior ranks of the Armed Forces and the Philippine National Police resolute in their opposition to extra-constitutional action and with the church hierarchy ambivalent about once again putting its weight behind popular revolt, rally organizers - including leftist and student activists and some business elites - were once again stymied in their hopes of bringing about another popular uprising of the kind that brought down Presidents Marcos and Estrada. Still, the presence of approximately 15,000 demonstrators on the street was a clear signal to President Arroyo that her administration's difficulties with charges of corruption are not over. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Thousands of demonstrators from various sectors of society, including civil society leaders, church officials, militant groups, and the political opposition gathered on February 29 for an "interfaith" protest against President Arroyo at the Ninoy Aquino Monument in Manila's main business district (ref A). Crowd estimates varied widely, with organizers estimating the number at 75,000, while the Philippine National Police put the figure at 15,000. In any case, the numbers were significantly lower than the organizers desired, and certainly not comparable to the estimated one million protesters that led to the removal from power of Presidents Marcos and Estrada. The demonstration was mostly peaceful as police and military units maintained public order, and no security units broke ranks and joined the protesters. Previously, mass rallies in 1986 and 2001 succeeded in large part because elements of the security forces turned against the government. ¶3. (SBU) During the three-hour demonstration, Catholic, Protestant, and Muslim religious leaders sat at the heart of the demonstration, leading prayer services for the crowd. In an unlikely pairing, former President Corazon Aquino, clad in her signature yellow clothing, and pardoned former President Joseph Estrada sat next to each other, united only in their desire for President Arroyo to step down. Briefly addressing the crowd, Aquino repeated her call for President Arroyo to resign, saying "I thought my duties had ended but the circumstances require me to rise up." For his part, Estrada thanked the crowd for their "willingness to stand up for truth, justice, and change." Estrada quipped, "I was an understaying President, but President Arroyo has overstayed her time," he noted. ¶4. (SBU) While notable former congressmen and retired military and police generals joined the rally, few sitting Congressmen or Senators appeared on the streets with the demonstrators - vocal opposition Senator Panfilo Lacson the notable exception. In a press conference prior to the event, Senate President Manny Villar said it was premature to call for the President's resignation. "It would be too hard for us Senators to actively call for the President's resignation because the Administration might say that we have prematurely concluded the ZTE investigation," Villar said (ref C). President Arroyo conducted business as usual, attending a morning mass, the opening of an aquarium in Manila, and a meeting with Philippine National Police Chief Avelino Razon at police headquarters. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Today's demonstration appeared to be somewhat larger than Monday's protests that marked the anniversary of the 1986 people power movement, but lacked anywhere near the magnitude and fervor of the events that brought down Ferdinand Marcos. President Arroyo remains resolute in her intention to serve out her presidential term to 2010, but the presence of thousands of demonstrators on the street was a clear signal that her administration's difficulties with charges of corruption are not over, with her detractors and critics determined to press for greater transparency on the charges they have leveled against her administration. Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm MANILA 00000521 002 OF 002 You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov KENNEY