MANILA BRACES FOR ANOTHER ANTI-ARROYO DEMONSTRATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 000517 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2018 TAGS: PGOV KCOR PINR RP SUBJECT: MANILA BRACES FOR ANOTHER ANTI-ARROYO DEMONSTRATION REF: A. MANILA 483 (LIMITED PROTESTS MARK ANNIVERSARY) ¶B. MANILA 404 (BRIBERY ALLEGATIONS ROIL ADMNISTRATION) ¶C. MANILA 316 (HOUSE SPEAKER OUSTED) Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Political turmoil over corruption allegations continues to roil the Arroyo administration, and Manila authorities are bracing for yet another anti-Arroyo demonstration, this one slated for Friday, February 29. As the political ferment continues here, the Ambassador and Mission representatives have been actively engaging present and former government officials, military top brass, and business and media leaders to emphasize several key points, including that civic protests are an essential right and a sign of a healthy democracy, as long as they are conducted peacefully and legally; extra-constitutional actions by the military or other actors are not a remedy to political discord; and political stability is vital for good governance, rule of law, and sustained economic growth. In several meetings with senior government officials, including President Arroyo, the Ambassador also has underscored the need for the administration to address aggressively and thoroughly public concern about perceived government corruption. END SUMMARY. LEAP YEAR DAY PROTEST PLANNED -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In another attempt at a people power-style movement to unseat the President amid allegations of corruption (ref B),opposition groups are planning a large anti-Arroyo rally on February 29 - leap year day, which some Filipinos consider particularly propitious for new initiatives - in Metro Manila's business district. Spearheaded by Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay of the United Opposition, the "inter-faith and multi-sectoral" rally will be led by former President Corazon Aquino and organizers hope for participation by key civil society figures along with students from at least four major universities. Militant groups led by leftist organization BAYAN also are scheduled to participate, as well as various lawyers groups. Religious activists from the Catholic Church, the Protestant religious groups "Jesus is Lord Movement" and "United Church of Christ" in the Philippines, and the ecumenical National Council of Churches in the Philippines have said they will join the demonstration. The planners estimate that they need a million people to participate -- about the same number that launched the two previous people power movements -- to oust President Arroyo. Opposition figures who attended a long-scheduled Embassy award ceremony February 28 featuring former President Cory Aquino suggested the actual number of participants would probably not reach more than 50,000, a figure the police consider optimistic. CBCP ISSUES MEASURED STATEMENT -------------- ¶3. (SBU) While some activist Catholic leaders publicly had been advocating President Arroyo's resignation, others had called for sobriety and reflection. To resolve these differences and speak with one voice, the influential Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP),which claims support from more than 80 percent of the Philippine population, held a special session February 25 and resolved not to support the call for Arroyo's resignation. Instead, the Conference issued a pastoral statement on February 26 urging the President to take the lead in combating corruption and reverse the Administration's policy not to permit government officials to testify in investigations of alleged government irregularities without express permission from the President. The Conference, under the active leadership of the late Jaime Cardinal Sin, played a pivotal role in the two previous people power revolts that brought down Presidents Marcos and Estrada. NATIONAL POLICE AND ARMED FORCES ON ALERT -------------- ¶4. (C) The Philippine National Police estimates a maximum of 20,000 people will participate in the planned evening demonstration. As a precaution, Philippine National Police Director General Avelino Razon, Jr. has placed all Manila-area police on full alert in advance of the protests and will deploy 200 police officers for general policing purposes and to assist traffic. The police will not hold firearms and will keep a 100-meter distance from the crowd. About 3,000 Anti-Riot Task Force police will be on standby away from the rally site. Separately, the Armed Forces of the Philippines, still on red alert, will play a secondary role. Three battalions of Armed Forces troops with fire extinguishers will be on standby inside Camp Aguinaldo, ready for deployment upon the request of the National Police. According to police contacts, Makati Mayor Binay assured police officials that he would personally make the announcement for demonstrators to disperse at 8:00 p.m. The Philippine weather bureau is forecasting cloudy skies and scattered showers on February 29. MISSION STRESSES RESPONSIBLE ACT BY GOVERNMENT AND CIVIL SOCIETY MANILA 00000517 002 OF 003 -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) In a series of meetings with civil society representatives and religious and business leaders, Mission representatives have stressed consistently that while civic protests are both a constitutional right and a sign of a healthy democracy, extra-constitutional means to change political leadership are harmful to democratic institutions and the economy. The importance of political stability to democratic institutions, good governance, rule of law, and sustained economic growth has also been a key theme. At the Embassy's annual Ninoy Aquino Awards Ceremony February 28, the Ambassador discussed these concerns with former President Corazon Aquino, a leading figure in the efforts to remove President Arroyo from power. President Aquino was adamant that there was no alternative but for President Arroyo to step down, citing pervasive corruption and what she claimed was increasing intimidation of press. Aquino believed that not even bold reform efforts could salvage Arroyo's presidency. However, in a telling response to the Ambassador's query about who might follow President Arroyo, Aquino had no ready reply. Still, Mrs. Aquino said that she was dismayed that she was unable to move the Catholic Church to decisively support her efforts to unseat the President. "Where is the courage of Cardinal Sin?" she asked. She suggested that the February 29 demonstration would be quite large, with students and activists coming out in numbers not seen before in the recent round of demonstrations. HEEDING PUBLIC CONCERN -------------- ¶6. (C) Separately, in meetings with senior government and military officials, the Ambassador has underscored the need for government officials at all levels to address public concerns about good governance. In a February 21 meeting, the Ambassador communicated these concerns directly to President Arroyo, suggesting that rather than simply rebutting charges from critics with additional media attacks, that the public would value a clear sign that the President was heeding public concerns. President Arroyo was receptive to the message and acknowledged that she would have to take a more active role. Similarly, the Ambassador conveyed the same message to Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo and National Security Advisor Bert Gonzales, SIPDIS both of whom acknowledged the importance of action while voicing concerns about the difficulty in fighting public perceptions. MILITARY LEADERS RECEPTIVE TO MESSAGE -------------- ¶7. (C) Mission representatives also have met with top ranking military officials. In a conversation with Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines General Hermogenes Esperon, Jr., the Ambassador congratulated Esperon on weathering a difficult period when many media reports had suggested that elements of the military might challenge political authority. Responding to the Ambassador's encouragement for the military to avoid extra-constitutional activities against the government, Esperon said he was proud of his commanders and the Armed Forces in general for their commitment to upholding the Philippine Constitution. Esperon stated he and his commanders were completely firm in their support of political remedies for political issues. "We achieved democracy, so let's allow the system to work," Esperon said. In a separate meeting, Philippine Army Commander and future Chief of Staff General Alexander Yano echoed Esperon's conviction to support the constitutional process. Still, Philippine authorities continue to monitor intelligence reports that small groups of military officers may try to take advantage of scheduled protests on February 29 to conduct unauthorized activities against the government. REACHING OUT TO BUSINESS LEADERS -------------- ¶8. (C) Embassy econoffs also have also reached out to local business leaders to emphasize the importance of adhering to constitutional processes to maintain sustained economic growth. During a lunch with top Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry officials to discuss overall trade issues on February 14, the Economic and Foreign Commercial Service Counselors noted that investors eschew uncertainty and businesses do best where there is a stable policy environment and a predictable transfer of political power. During a February 21 lunch where the Executive Director of the powerful Makati Business Club and the head of the Philippine-U.S. Business Council called for President Arroyo to step down, these Counselors noted the importance of promoting rule of law in order to improve the investment climate in the Philippines. ¶9. (C) Mission representatives have also engaged local government officials, delivering the same message. In a February 27 meeting with several provincial governors active in the pro-Arroyo camp, acting DCM emphasized the need to show the public that political elites care about their concerns. The governors agreed, but argued that President Arroyo still had widespread support, as evidenced by the 100 congressmen who MANILA 00000517 003 OF 003 recently held a pro-Arroyo rally (ref A) and the projected 50 governors coming into Manila to show their support for Arroyo on February 29. DISCORD FOR SOME MEANS PROFIT FOR OTHERS -------------- ¶10. (C) In addition to giving media interviews on major Philippine networks, the Ambassador met individually with key media owners to emphasize that political stability is key to the economic future of the Philippines; public protests are a sign of a healthy democracy as long as they are conducted peacefully and legally; and extra-constitutional actions by the military or other actors are not a remedy to political discord. When asked about the U.S. perspective on political events unfolding in the Philippines, the Ambassador said that the hope of the United States for Filipinos was that the free expression of their views "honors the rule of law and remains peaceful and within the bounds of the Constitution." None disagreed. Several noted that the current protests were led by former political figures eager to keep their names and faces in public. Media figures told the Ambassador privately that the recent events and public political mudslinging had proven extremely profitable for broadcast and print media, with the public paying great attention to the issues. COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) While President Arroyo continues to face a steady diet of corruption allegations from political elites -- most undocumented -- her situation still does not appear to have reached a tipping point. She continues to enjoy support in key sectors of society, including the leadership of military and police, governors and members of the House of Representatives. Moreover, the Catholic bishops' refusal to join the bandwagon calling for her resignation will likely have a dampening effect on the public debate in general, and the February 29 demonstration in particular. Nevertheless, as Mission representatives have emphasized, it behooves her and other high government officials to heed public concern over the perception of widespread corruption. Irrespective of the level of public dissatisfaction with the President, another people power revolution is not the answer. It would further entrench the perception in the region and around the world that the Philippines is an ungovernable country, where political change is regularly brought about through extra-constitutional means and could imperil the foreign investment that has been so vital to the Philippines' recent economic growth. Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov KENNEY