SCENESETTER FOR LTG MIXON'S VISIT TO THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 000463 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MTS USPACOM ALSO FOR FPA SECDEF/OSD/ISA/AP FOR MIXON E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2018 TAGS: MARR MOPS PINS PREL PTER RP SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR LTG MIXON'S VISIT TO THE PHILIPPINES MANILA 00000463 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: LTG Mixon, welcome to the Philippines! You are coming to the Philippines at an important time. With U.S. support, the Armed Forces of the Philippines are targeting terrorists on islands in the southern Philippines, while supporting the government's efforts to make peace with Muslim insurgents. Under the leadership of Philippines Secretary of National Defense Teodoro and Chief of Staff SIPDIS General Esperon, the Philippines is fully committed to Defense reform. U.S. Pacific Command is an essential partner in our efforts to defeat terrorism through a combination of hard and soft power that the Philippines emulates. The Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines is well integrated into overall USG counterterrorism and development programs. During your visit you will meet Philippine civilian and military leaders, and visit combined training associated with Balikatan 2008. End Summary. PPHILIPPINE POLITICS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Philippine politics is lively, with President Gloria Arroyo's administration facing renewed charges of corruption. The President retains a firm grip on the House of Representatives, where she orchestrated the removal of the former Speaker of the House in favor of another POLITICAL ally, and enjoys the support of a large majority of provincial governors and local mayors. Her relationship with top security officials also remains strong, as evidenced by their recent reminders to military and police personnel to stay out of POLITICAL debates and stay focused on their security roles. The public may be suffering from scandal fatigue, as numerous calls for demonstrations have not produced large crowds for a country of 90 million people. ECONOMICS AND TRADE -------------- ¶3. (C) The Philippine economy grew over 7 percent in 2007, the strongest expansion in three decades, and the third consecutive year of growth above 5 percent. Unemployment and inflation are down, and government revenues are up, even in the face of rising fuel prices, continued corruption allegations, terrorist bombings, and POLITICAL tumult. ;President Arroyo has an impressive reform agenda -- privatize the electric sector, build infrastructure, increase education funding, and reduce business red tape -- but still faces significant hurdles, particularly in improving the investment climate. There is also considerable concern over the impact of a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, as the U.S. remains the Philippines' largest trading partner, with over $17.3 billion in two-way merchandise trade, and largest investor, with $6.6 billion in equity. SECURITY AND INSURGENCIES -------------- ¶4. (C) President Arroyo is a committed counterterrorism partner, and has repeatedly demonstrated her willingness to work closely with us to combat terrorists who established themselves in the Philippines during the 1990s. Military and law enforcement forces scored several major victories in the counterterrorism fight during the last 18 months, including the deaths in military operations of the leaders of the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group, which has links to international terrorist organizations and is responsible for the deaths of Americans and Filipinos alike. On February 17, the Philippine Armed Forces recovered the suspected remains of Bali bomber and senior Jemaah Islamiyah member Dulmatin. FBI agents are assisting Philippine National Police in the forensic examinations and DNA analysis, which will take several weeks. In recent military operations, Philippine troops killed two significant local Abu Sayyaf commanders in Basilan suspected of involvement in several terrorist attacks, including an October 2002 bombing that killed a U.S. serviceman. ¶5. (C) Success in the government's peace process with Muslim insurgents would help deny terrorists safe haven. Currently, rogue insurgent commanders harbor terrorists, frequently due to complex clan and family relationships. We are directly MANILA 00000463 002 OF 003 engaged with all peace process players, including the insurgency's leadership, to press for progress in peace talks and the severing of ties to terrorists. The Malaysian-led International Monitoring Team has helped stabilize the four-year ceasefire between the Philippine government and the Muslim insurgents. ¶6. (C) While not the U.S. counterterrorism priority, the Communist Party of the Philippines/New People's Army insurgency, which is unconnected to international terrorism, remains a virulent nationwide threat. Its ideology and tactics hold little appeal for the overwhelming majority of Filipinos, but the movement is fueled by poverty, insufficient government services, and discontent with the corruption permeating the POLITICAL system. The U.S. and European Union August 2002 designation of the New People's Army as a terrorist organization set back its overseas fundraising efforts. Philippine Armed Forces leaders hope to redirect assets against the New People's Army once they successfully conclude an agreement with Muslim insurgents. PHILIPPINE DEFENSE REFORM -------------- ¶7. (C) On the eve of the largest U.S.-Philippine exercises of the year (Balikatan),the Armed Forces of the Philippines remain heavily engaged in combating internal security threats while continuing to enhance their limited external defense capabilities. Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro has taken personal control of Philippine Defense Reform, and the Philippine government plans to spend about USD 100 million annually through 2012 funding defense reform initiatives. The Philippines is already realizing positive effects from these efforts including improved operational readiness through better maintenance. At the same time, they have promoted transparency in their procurement system, which has allowed them to expand their combat capability. In particular, the purchase and granting of U.S. helicopters to the Philippines has proven helpful in improving the military's mobility. Long term, the defense reform program will modernize 72 Philippine Army and 12 Philippine Marine Corps battalions over the next six years. UNLAWFUL/EXTRAJUDICIAL KILLINGS -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Extrajudicial killings remain one of the thorniest issues for the Arroyo administration, with critics charging that rogue elements of the Philippine military are responsible for some politically-motivated killings. President Arroyo has spoken out consistently and strongly on the issue, including during the State of the Union address, and has taken a variety of steps to address the problem such as the creation of -- or strengthening of existing -- government task forces and commissions. New U.S. assistance to government and NGOs has helped build capacity to address the problem. By the end of 2007, these steps, as well as intensified domestic and international attention to the problem, appeared to have had a measurable impact, with government agencies and human rights NGOs reporting a significant decline in the number of extrajudicial killings during the year. ¶9. (U) The Embassy carefully vets all proposed military and law enforcement personnel about to receive U.S.-funded training both internally and with relevant Philippine authorities to comply with the terms of the Leahy Amendments. THEMES: KEEP UP COUNTERTERRORISM FIGHT, PDR, AND RULE OF LAW -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) In your meetings with Philippine officials, you may want to draw on the following themes: -- The Philippines is a strong and valued partner in counterterrorism efforts; -- Congratulations on recent successes in the fight against terrorists, and commendations to those brave Filipinos who provided information leading to these successful military operations; MANILA 00000463 003 OF 003 -- We are committed to helping sustain the momentum in Philippine counterterrorism efforts by assisting with military and humanitarian offensives; -- We are following the peace process with great interest as it moves forward. We fully support the government's desire for a durable peace agreement. We believe it is important to keep open communications with those willing to discuss peace. -- We take the issue of extra-judicial killings seriously. Suspects need to be apprehended and tried. We are encouraged by steps the Philippine government has taken to eliminate this problem, and we support the ongoing efforts to promote a culture of democratic security that protects everyone; -- Philippine Defense Reform is transforming the Armed Forces of the Philippines into a more modern, capable force. We are proud to be partners in this program. Visit Embassy Manila's Classified website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm KENNEY