ANNOUNCING U.S. ASSISTANCE FOR EVACUEES,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 002615 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MTS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2018 TAGS: EAID PREF PGOV PHUM RP SUBJECT: ANNOUNCING U.S. ASSISTANCE FOR EVACUEES, AMBASSADOR PUSHES FOR END TO FIGHTING REF: A. MANILA 2592 (AMBASSADOR CONTINUES PEACE AND SECURITY DIALOGUE) ¶B. MANILA 2536 (DCM AND USAID DIRECTOR SURVEY IDP CAMP) ¶C. MANILA 2338 (HIGH COURT RULES AGAINST MILF PEACE DEAL) ¶D. MANILA 1844 (MILF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PEACE PROCESS) Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On her November 21 visit to an internally displaced persons (IDP) camp in central Mindanao, the Ambassador called for an end to fighting between government forces and separatist Muslim rebels and expressed continued U.S. support for the people of Mindanao, especially those fleeing areas wracked by the ongoing conflict. Accompanied by the USAID Mission Director and the UN World Food Programme (WFP) Country Director, the Ambassador announced to Philippine officials and journalists the U.S. assistance package to address the IDP situation, including a donation of more than a thousand tons of rice to the WFP. Indicating a potential new direction for the peace process, Cotabato City's Mayor Sema later that day told Ambassador that he and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) leader believed the government's 1996 peace agreement with the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) contained elements that resembled parts of this summer's aborted territorial agreement. These specific elements could form the basis of renewed peace talks, and Sema said he might raise the issue on the margins of the next MNLF tri-partite meeting. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY CONTINUED: As Sema's guest of honor at a large, boisterous City Hall luncheon, the Ambassador connected with government officials and religious, business, and civil society leaders, some on opposing ends of the political spectrum, reinforcing U.S. support for peace and development in the region and reestablishing ties with an audience that welcomed U.S. engagement in Mindanao. Separately, the local Philippine military division commander predicted that fighting could subside in December, while the Ambassador emphasized the importance of civil-military operations to build better relationships with local communities as a way to transition away from fighting. END SUMMARY. AMBASSADOR ANNOUNCES U.S. AID, URGES END TO FIGHTING -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Welcomed by local, provincial, and regional officials, the Ambassador visited internally displaced persons (IDPs) at an evacuation center in the town of Datu Odin Sinsuat, Shariff Kabunsuan province, on November 21 to demonstrate U.S. support for the victims of the ongoing conflict in central Mindanao between government forces and separatist Muslim rebels and to highlight the U.S. call for an end to fighting. Regional health officials explained to Ambassador, who was accompanied by USAID Mission Director and UN World Food Programme (WFP) Country Director, that conditions in Datu Odin Sinsuat were not as dire as those in Datu Piang, which the DCM had visited one month earlier (ref B),but noted that the government was still challenged by a general shortage of medical supplies and inadequate sanitation facilities. The Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao Secretary of Health and other officials welcomed the Ambassador's announcement of U.S. assistance in the form of 1,500 tons of rice to the WFP and the targeting of water and sanitation infrastructure projects to alleviate conditions at crowded IDP camps. The benefits of earlier U.S. assistance to Mindanao's health infrastructure were already visible; evacuees were receiving Vitamin A capsules and immunizations from the regional Department of Health with technical support from USAID programs to prevent the spread of disease, which, according to some reports, was becoming more of a concern at other IDP evacuation centers. MAYOR SEES NEW AVENUE FOR PEACE TALKS -------------- ¶4. (C) In a meeting at Cotabato City Hall, Mayor Muslimin Sema, without prompting, briefed Ambassador on his efforts to restart peace talks between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Philippine government. The government's 1996 peace agreement with the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the 1989 law that created the Autonomous Region of MANILA 00002615 002 OF 003 Muslim Mindanao, he said, contained some elements of the territorial agreement aborted in October -- and could potentially become the basis for renewed peace negotiations. The implication was that the original concepts of the territorial agreement would not necessarily be abandoned in the next phase of talks and could give hope to the MILF, still reeling from the Supreme Court's decision declaring the territorial agreement unconstitutional (ref C). The Philippine government would likewise have a good basis to get back to the negotiating table. The MILF's aging leaders, Sema noted, ultimately wanted a peace deal and were not enthusiastic about the rogue MILF commanders that launched strikes in August. Sema said he and MILF Chairman Murad wanted the Ambassador to know that they might raise this issue on the margins of the next MNLF tripartite talks. ¶5. (C) The Ambassador welcomed Sema's intention to support a return to peace talks, noting that neither the MILF nor the Philippines came out winners in the unexpected Supreme Court decision. The Ambassador asked Sema to convey to Murad her belief that the high court decision did not categorically end the peace talks. The best course was still to continue negotiations, the Ambassador explained, because fighting benefited no one and there was still much more to discuss. The U.S. and other donors would support a return to peace talks with development assistance, but the U.S. could not do this while the parties were at war. BRINGING DIVERSE GROUPS TOGETHER -------------- ¶6. (C) At a boisterous luncheon hosted by Mayor Sema in honor of the Ambassador, Sema went to great lengths to invite over 300 key leaders from Cotabato City and surrounding municipalities, many of whom had ties to the U.S. through U.S. government grants or Public Affairs programs, and considered themselves friends of the United States. The guest list featured groups on opposite sides of the political spectrum, including the Armed Forces of the Philippines, MILF members, MNLF members, catholic and Muslim religious leaders, business and civil society leaders, and numerous government officials -- evidence of the high regard that many parties in the greater Cotabato community have for the Mayor. Visibly enjoying the attention, Sema seemed to view himself as a peacemaker, uniting a diverse crowd from a troubled region within the context of the U.S. Ambassador's highly anticipated visit. In his address to those gathered, he expressed his aspirations for Cotabato City, the need for peace in the region, and his sincere appreciation and gratitude for the "care and concern" that the U.S. had exhibited toward his city, which, he beamed, had stimulated investment in the area. MILITARY WEIGHS ITS OPTIONS -------------- ¶7. (C) In a meeting at Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Sixth Infantry Division headquarters, General Raymundo Ferrer reiterated concerns that he had relayed to U.S. officials on other occasions. He expressed hope that fighting would end by Christmas and that the MILF would contain the two rogue commanders that were still on the run. He told Ambassador that some IDPs were instructed to return home, but they hesitated to leave IDP camps where safety and access to food were ensured. Still, he acknowledged that the longer operations continued, the more the AFP risked tarnishing its image as defender of the people. At any rate, even with the upper hand on the battlefield, morale and troop welfare were becoming a concern, which could further advance movement toward a December ceasefire. Commending the AFP on their work and recounting an earlier conversation with AFP Chief of Staff General Yano (ref A),the Ambassador urged Ferrer to consider more civil-military operations as a means to solidify the AFP's relationships with communities caught in the conflict. The U.S. was willing to contribute to civil-military operations, the Ambassador assured, but could not get ahead of the Philippine government on the issue, and could not pursue these projects while fighting continued. CEREMONIES AT TWO USAID FACILITIES -------------- ¶8. (C) During the course of the visit, the Ambassador participated in an opening ceremony for a USAID-funded trading center structure in Barangay Awang where farmers can conveniently sell their goods, and in a blessing ceremony for MANILA 00002615 003 OF 003 the formal opening of the Cotabato City Mega Square, which has become home for many stores and service providers. The Ambassador noted in remarks at both events that these facilities, constructed in close cooperation with local officials, would bring economic growth to the area in a demonstration of the continuing commitment of the Philippine and U.S. governments to the peace process, as well as to the future of Mindanao and its people. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Mayor Sema's frank and enthusiastic discussion with the Ambassador could augur well for a new direction on the path to restart peace talks. The exact connection between the 1989 Organic Law, the 1996 peace agreement, and the territorial agreement is not yet clear, and it is also unclear how Sema came to the conclusion -- whether on his own, or in consultation with outside legal experts -- that certain common "elements" are shared among these different agreements. Regardless, Sema has already discussed this potential path with the MILF and, for the time being, it appears that the MILF has accepted the notion as something worth exploring. While Sema has maintained regular contact with the MILF's Chairman Murad (ref D),the potential for an MNLF role in the MILF peace process could lead the two sides to a more constructive working relationship far in advance of any final negotiated peace settlement. KENNEY