GOVERNOR AMPATUAN REELECTED IN AUTOMATED ARMM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 001956 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MTS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM RP SUBJECT: GOVERNOR AMPATUAN REELECTED IN AUTOMATED ARMM ELECTIONS REF: A. MANILA 1930 (FIRST EVER AUTOMATED ARMM ELECTIONS PEACEFUL EFFICIENT) ¶B. MANILA 1696 (LOCAL ELECTIONS IN MUSLIM MINDANAO IMPACT PEACE PROCESS) Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Incumbent Governor Zaldy Ampatuan won his reelection bid in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) with 93 percent of total votes, a huge margin over the second place finisher, who garnered only 1.7 percent, according to the official results from the Commission on Elections (COMELEC). The 85 percent turnout among eligible ARMM voters exceeded COMELEC's earlier predictions of 60 percent, reflecting both the novelty of the new automated voting systems as well as the ability of the Ampatuan clan to mobilize voters and influence ARMM provincial officials. The new automated vote-counting systems deprived candidates of the opportunity to alter the vote totals. However, there were reports of more traditional forms of influence, such as vote-buying, ballot stuffing, and the co-opting of election workers. Irregularities aside, the new voting systems were also affected by mundane problems such as power outages and data transmission failures, which caused minor confusion and delays. Nonetheless, election monitors and foreign observers concluded that the ARMM elections, while not entirely free from irregularities, were successful because of the calm, peaceful, and orderly manner in which they were executed, and most believe that the lessons learned will be instructive for the 2010 national elections. End Summary. AMPATUAN'S LANDSLIDE VICTORY -------------- ¶2. (C) Incumbent Governor Zaldy Ampatuan won his reelection bid in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), earning 93 percent of all votes, the Commission on Elections announced August 13. This represents a huge margin of victory over second-place finisher Alvarez Isnaji, mayor of Indanan in Sulu province, who garnered only 1.7 percent of the total. Ampatuan's margin of victory was helped by the large number of independent candidates, whose reputations could not rival his own and who split a smaller share of votes. Incumbent Vice-Governor Ansaruddin Adiong was also reelected. The other candidates of Lakas-CMD, the party of Governor Ampatuan and the Arroyo Administration, fared well, garnering 17 of the 24 regional assembly spots, but still had a net loss of two seats. ¶3. (C) Total voter turnout of 85 percent, representing 1.3 million of 1.5 million eligible voters, dwarfed COMELEC's earlier predictions of 60 percent voter turnout. Intense voter interest in the new technology as well as government education efforts, including "mock elections" in July, encouraged voters to go to the polls. Election officials interviewed by U.S. Mission observers said they noted more younger voters this year than in previous elections, in part due to the interest among young people in the new voting technology. Still, some observers suspected that such a high turnout would have been impossible without a strong push from the various candidates. NEW SYSTEM, WITH SOME FAMILIAR SCHEMES -------------- ¶4. (C) The grouping of voting centers into fewer precincts than in previous ARMM elections made it easier to resolve technical difficulties, an important consideration since touch-screen voting and optical reader technologies were being tested in a real election for the first time. This consolidation of voting centers also allowed for more effective management by election officials. In practice, according to monitors' reports, most voting centers enforced the basic COMELEC guidelines for free and fair elections. A large number of voting centers appeared to be well managed, with some election officials strictly enforcing rules on checking identification cards, creating shields for voter privacy, and forbidding the presence of non-voters in the voting rooms. ¶5. (C) Other voting centers were less rigorously managed, while still others appeared susceptible to influence from candidates' family members, political party volunteers, or village officials. (At one precinct, a few kilometers from Ampatuan's house, the Governor's brother, Benny Ampatuan, MANILA 00001956 002 OF 002 stood watch directly outside the voting centers.) Election monitors and foreign observers occasionally witnessed voting irregularities, such as vote buying with cash handouts, voter identification fraud, the presence of voting "assistants" who guided voters' selections, and ballot stuffing, in which a single individual filled out numerous optical reader ballots. Contrary to election guidelines, community officials were also standing near voting centers and there were cases observed of military officers or other persons with guns inside the precincts. COMELEC's decision to locate precincts on main roads seemed to have forced rural residents in far-flung villages to rely on private transportation, which, according to some monitors' reports, could have been provided by political parties. The 85 percent voter turnout led some monitors to speculate that voters were trucked in from other villages or even other provinces (as "fly-in voters") to vote in the place of no-shows before polls closed at three o'clock. At the end of the day, monitors noted that some precincts reported 100 percent voter turnout. MUNDANE CHALLENGES, TOO -------------- ¶6. (C) Overall, both COMELEC officials and Mission observers assessed that the new automated systems performed well. However, some areas were affected by problems such as power outages and data transmission failures. Maguindanao province was selected for the touch-screen voting machines because it had the most reliable electric grid in the ARMM. That grid, however, failed in some locations a few hours before polls were set to close, shutting down the satellite transmission systems. This power failure forced precincts to hand-deliver the voting data to the provincial canvassing center, further delaying the provincial tabulation of election results. Also in Maguindanao, some election officials had trouble consolidating the votes from several voting machines onto one machine and complained about incorrect wiring. While election workers claimed that the COMELEC made voter education materials available in the local dialect, U.S. Mission election observers only saw materials in Tagalog and English. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) While the ARMM elections were not perfect, COMELEC demonstrated that it can run an efficient and, for the most part, clean automated election that required sophisticated management capabilities and extensive training of election workers, volunteers, and voting machine technicians. In light of COMELEC's string of election scandals over the past decade and under the new leadership of Chairman Melo, a retired Supreme Court Justice, this in itself is a significant accomplishment. The voter turnout exceeded all expectations and, indeed, all probabilities, according to some election monitors. Electronic voting will give COMELEC and election monitors more sophisticated tools to determine if fraud took place, while the decision to condense the number of precincts gave candidates more centralized channels to influence voters. KENNEY