NICARAGUA'S CENIS- DEBT RENEGOTIATED, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000880 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/AND, WHA/EPSC, INR/IAA AND EEB/OMA STATE PASS TO OPIC AND USOAS DEPT FOR USAID/LAC DEPT ALSO FOR CA/VO/L/C USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/MSIEGELMAN 3134/ITA/USFCS/OIO/WH/MKESHISHIAN/BARTHUR E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2018 TAGS: EFIN ECON PGOV NU SUBJECT: NICARAGUA'S CENIS- DEBT RENEGOTIATED, BUT PERSECUTIONS JUST BEGINNING REF: A. MANAGUA 808 ¶B. MANAGUA 481 ¶C. MANAGUA 450 ¶D. MANAGUA 443 Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 b&d ¶1. (C) Summary: On July 7 Special Prosecutor Armando Juarez filed formal accusations against 39 people for "crimes against the economy of the country, fraud, and influence peddling" in connection with the bailout of Nicaragua's banking system and attendant issuance of bonds, originally known as Negotiable Investment Certificates (CENIs). This list of those accused includes opposition leader Eduardo Montealegre and several former Central Bank Presidents and Finance Ministers. Reports are that the final list was scrubbed by President Ortega himself before its release. Meanwhile, on July 4 the Central Bank and Bancentro signed a final CENIs renegotiation agreement with the same terms as BanPro had agreed to in June (Ref A). The combined renegotiations will save the GON between USD 30-40 million in net present value (NPV) terms. End Summary. Let the Circus Begin ... -------------- ¶2. (U) On July 7 the Office of the Prosecutor General's Special Prosecutor for the CENIs case Armando Juarez filed formal accusations against 39 individuals for "crimes against the economy of the country, fraud, and influence peddling," in connection with the bailout of Nicaragua's banking system and attendant issuance of bonds, originally known as CENIs. He requeS_d+QQ1}b&Q^%rFel restrictions for the duration of the case. The list of accused includes Former Finance Minister and opposition Managua mayoral candidate Eduardo Montealegre (the country's most popular opposition political figure),former Finance Ministers Esteban Duque Estrada and Mario Flores, former Nicaraguan Central Bank (BCN) Presidents Noel Ramirez and Mario Alonzo, former Superintendent of bank Noel Sacasa, current BCN General Manager Jose de Jesus Rojas, current BNC Financial Manager Carlos Cerda, current BCN Legal Manager Juan Jose Rodriguez, current Director of the Deposit Insurance Agency Vilma Leon York and shareholders of Bancentro and BanPro, including the President of La Prensa's (right of center daily) Board of Directors Jaime Chamorro Cardenal. Most of these accused are former members of the previous Bolanos administration. ¶3. (C) The Prosecutor General had intended to file the charges last week, but reportedly had to delay because of last minute consultations with the Presidency over who should be on the list. Sources indicate that the Presidents of Bancentro and BanPro, Roberto Zamora and Ramiro Ortiz Sr., were taken off the list by direct order from President Ortega. Former President Bolanos was also on the preliminary list of accused, but later was removed. The focus of the Ortega government's accusations continues to be Eduardo Montealegre (Ref C). The Special Prosecutor claims that each of the accused played some role in the original issuance of the CENIs in 2000-2001, the 2003 renegotiation of the CENIs (which while it reduced Nicaragua NPV CENIs debt, did increase nominal payments),and in the valuation and liquidation of the failed banks' assets. ¶4. (U) In an effort to stall the impending indictments, on July 3 Eduardo Montealegre filed a formal request that Special prosecutor Juarez be removed from the case. Montealegre cited Juarez' role as legal counsel for Francisco Mayorga, president of one of the failed banks who was tried and convicted for his role in the failures, as a conflict of interest. (Note: Mayorga ended up only serving two years of his nine year sentence. End Note) Montealegre also stated that Juarez is a nephew of Ortega's former state Security director and FSLN Political Director Lenin Cerna, and has strong ties to the FSLN. On July 4, without denying any of Montealegre's accusations, Deputy Prosecutor General Ana Julia Guido (also a loyal FSLN member) dismissed Montealegre's request to remove Juarez. The next legal steps will include a review of the evidence and possible further investigation by the criminal court judge. The judge assigned to the case is Julio Cesar Arias, a member of the FSLN who issued the sequestration orders on Bancentro and BanPro's CENIs in April. ... While the Financial Cliffhanger is Resolved -------------- -- ¶5. (U) While the prosecution was getting started, on July 4 BCN President Rosales and Bancentro Executive Director Julio Cardenas signed a final agreement for the renegotiation of the remaining USD 31.4 million in CENIs. The terms are exactly the same as those negotiated with BanPro in June (Ref A); bonds with 20 year maturities, paying at 5% for the first 15 years and 5.25% percent for the last five. The 2008 payments due to Bancentro will be reduced from USD 7.3 million to just under USD 1 million. Overall, the GON has reduced its CENIs debt load by 26.4% in net present value (NPV) terms, according to BCN President Rosales. The IMF reports that the NPV savings on both renegotiations will be USD 30-40 million. Rosales will now formally request the lifting of the sequestration order on Bancentro's CENIs, just as he did with BanPro's. (Note: The BanPro CENIs were officially released from sequestration on June 19. End Note.) Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Few would disagree that the FSLN is determined to use the CENIs case as the basis for a political witch hunt. The charges represent the first formal step in Ortega's efforts to bring down members of the former Bolanos administration still operating prominently in Nicaragua's political and financial arena. Deputy Prosecutor Guido has admitted that the main source of Juarez' investigation, and the basis of the charges lodged against the group of 39, is the 2006 report by the National Assembly's Ethics Committee, headed by PLC Deputy Donald Lacayo Nunez. Lacayo, at the time a fervent supporter of former president and convicted felon Arnoldo Aleman, and his Committee had little understanding of banking or finance, which resulted in a report that was more political than technical in nature. ¶7. (C) Settling the issue of whether the government will honor its debt to BanPro and Bancentro should calm international concerns about growing risk to Nicaragua's financial sector for the time being. However, it has not escaped public notice that BCN President Rosales has just concluded renegotiating agreements in exactly the same manner as had Montealegre and former BCN officials who are now accused of wrongdoing. Several prominent economists, from both sides of the political fence, have pointed out that if Montealegre is convicted, the GON may have grounds to invalidate Rosales' just concluded negotiations. Thus, the specter of the GON reneging on its payment promises remains. Indeed, Ortega's public statements on the CENIs reflect this paradox. In one breath, he publicly praised the renegotiation during a July 6 rally, but in the next stated that all those accused in the case "should go to jail." TRIVELLI