NICARAGUA: INCREASING POLITICAL TENSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000840 SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN NYMAN AND GREENE DEPT FOR INR/IAA EMERSON DEPT FOR USOAS DEPT PLEASE PASS TO AID/LAC NSC FOR ALVARADO KEARSARGE FOR COMMODORE PONDS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2018 TAGS: PHUM PGOV NU SUBJECT: NICARAGUA: INCREASING POLITICAL TENSION Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli, Resaons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Several physical attacks on opposition groups over the past two weeks are raising concerns about the potential for political violence in Nicaragua and the further narrowing of democratic space in the run-up to municipal elections in November. A Leon student group took control of the site of a planned NGO-organized forum and pelted participants with mud and rocks. Similarly, the FSLN and the Citizen Power Councils (CPCs) orchestrated two attacks in the last week against the Liberal candidate for mayor of Managua, Eduardo Montealegre, as he tried to campaign in Sandinista controlled Managua neighborhoods. Given escalating political tensions and civil society,s growing willingness to challenge the Ortega government, these may be just the first of many clashes. End Summary. Attack on MRS and PC in Leon - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) A leading Nicaraguan NGO, Hagamos Democracia, organized a June 26 forum on constitutional and electoral issues and invited Dora Maria Tellez, a leader of the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) who recently held a 13-day hunger strike to protest the banning of the party by the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE),Alejandro Bolanos, a former Conservative Party (PC) deputy, and Gabriel Alvarez, an expert on constitutional law to serve as panelists. The NGO was granted permission to use a conference room on the UNAN-Leon grounds. According to the personal secretary of the MRS leader, university authorities were "pressured" by FSLN activists that morning and hence decided to cancel classes in that building for the day and remove administrative personnel from the area. ¶3. (C) As one of the NGO members was setting up for the event, she was assaulted by unknown individuals, whom she assumed to be students, and pushed out of the building. At two in the afternoon, a group of students identified as members of the University Center of the National University (CUUN) evicted all remaining personnel and took control of the building. The students reportedly acted under the pretext that they were demanding that the school administrators release past due scholarship funds. When the MRS and PC officials arrived for the forum, they were not allowed on to the campus; 15 of the CUUN members pelted them with mud and rocks and set off small, homemade explosive devices. One of the students reportedly aimed an explosive launcher directly at the MRS leader. The MRS and PC officials were not seriously injured during this attack and evidently went on to deliver their presentations outside the building. ¶4. (C) It was later reported that the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) mayoral candidate in Leon, Manuel Calderon, backed the actions of the students arguing and that Dora Maria should not have &arrived at the mouth of the wolf.8 FSLN Blocks Managua Mayoral Candidate Montealegre from neighborhood - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (U) Also on June 26, a crowd of FSLN activists, waving FSLN black and red banners, stopped Eduardo Montealegre, the Vamos con Eduardo-Constitutional Liberal Party Alliance (VCE-PLC) candidate for mayor of Managua, from campaigning in a Managua neighborhood. The activists, waving banners and sticks, blocked several streets and prevented Montealegre and his campaign team from entering the area. On June 19, FSLN and Citizens, Power Council (CPC) activists, similarly prevented Montealegre from campaigning in two Sandinista-controlled Managua neighborhoods, Grenada and Pantasma. When the candidates arrived, the CPC activists and other sympathizers started by yelling and shoving Montealegre and his running mate, Quinonez; the confrontation escalated to rock throwing and a hasty Montealegre retreat. Comment - - - - ¶6. (C) These attacks on opposition leaders and their pro-democracy message suggest an increased potential for political violence. Ortega,s growing unpopularity and the new found ability of the democratic opposition to tap public resentment through recent large, well-attended marches and neighborhood door-to-door campaigns may be driving the FSLN towards physical counter-measures. TRIVELLI