NNP UNDER POLITICAL PRESSURE: "I WAS FIRED BY

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000289 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CEN, INL/LP NSC FOR FISK/ALVARADO E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2018 TAGS: NU PGOV PREL SNAR SUBJECT: NNP UNDER POLITICAL PRESSURE: "I WAS FIRED BY ORTEGA" REF: MANAGUA 263 Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Former Nicaraguan National Police (NNP) Juvenile Affairs Chief Hamyn Gurdian privately confirmed widespread speculation that his recent forced retirement, as well as the retirements of four other senior NNP officials (reftel),was indeed a political move and a "message" from Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega regarding his control over the NNP. Gurdian asserted that NNP Chief Aminta Granera was "extremely unhappy" about the dismissals but had no choice in the situation. Despite her inability to prevent the dismissals, though, Granera is still "loved and supported" by all ranks of the NNP. It is clear, he continued, that Ortega wants to attack the institutional independence and professionalism of the NNP, but it will take much more than a "small torpedo" like this attack - "Ortega would need (the equivalent) of 40 Tomahawk cruise missiles to truly break us apart." Gurdian also discounted Ortega's February 27 proclamation of direct authority over the Nicaraguan Army, doubting that Ortega will have much success in attempting to "shake the tree" and exercise direct control over the "much stronger and more autonomous" Nicaraguan Army. End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - - A Surprise Dismissal - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Former NNP Juvenile Affairs Chief Hamyn Gurdian privately told uQv+Q?'Hid not contravene any Nicaraguan laws, it was "awkward and unusual" to force the retirement of five highly regarded officers at his rank who still had potential to advance further in the NNP. Gurdian added that, in the context of Ortega's recent statements about his direct control of the NNP (reftel),the message from these dismissals is clear: "I am in charge here." Gurdian asserted that NNP Chief Aminta Granera was "extremely unhappy" about the dismissals but had no choice in the situation. Despite her inability to prevent the dismissals, though, Granera is still "loved and supported" by all ranks of the NNP. ¶3. (C) Gurdian dismissed media reports that he had been removed due to his strong affiliation with the Church of the Assemblies of God. (Note: A senior Assemblies of God pastor in the United States called Gurdian during the meeting with Poloff, evidently to express his sympathy and support for Gurdian's plight.) Gurdian claimed that he did not wish to engage in "endless speculation" regarding the actual reasons for his release, but he then related an account of a previous confrontation he had with Daniel Ortega that may have contributed to the current situation. In 1994, Gurdian was in charge of the NNP's riot unit (or "Anti-Disturbance Unit"),often working to quell Sandinista-organized riots. In response to Gurdian's success in suppressing the riots, Ortega made a personal visit to his office to deliver a warning - "You are making a serious mistake." Having earned Ortega's personal and apparently unrelenting enmity, Gurdian was soon afterwards removed from his position as chief of the unit. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Bent, Battered, But Not Broken - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Gurdian also confirmed the veracity of media reports that Ortega had used NNP retirement guidelines in an attempt to force NNP Chief Aminta Granera to retire after her 30 years of service, an attempt which she successfully rebuffed. Despite the move against Granera, and Ortega's subsequent success in directly orchestrating the forced retirements, Gurdian remained optimistic about the future of the NNP as an independent and non-politicized organization. The NNP must respond like sugarcane in a hurricane, he explained, perhaps bruised, battered, and bent to the extreme, but never breaking. After Ortega lost the Presidency to Violeta Chamorro, he continued, many of the "true believer" Sandinista NNP officials also ended up leaving the organization by the late 1990s, leaving in their wake a largely non-political and highly professional corps. As such, Gurdian asserted, the recent forced retirements have only slightly damaged the independence of the NNP, as much as a "small torpedo." Gurdian opined that it was clear that Ortega wants to attack the institutional independence and professionalism of the NNP. However, to truly break the standards of NNP independence and professionalism, Ortega needs to use the equivalent of "40 Tomahawk cruise missiles" to completely destroy the NNP institution before he can truly bend it to his will. As long as Aminta remains as chief of the NNP, Gurdian concluded, the organization will "continue as before" Gurdian also commented on Ortega's February 27 proclamation of direct authority over the Nicaraguan Army, expressing his doubt that Ortega will be successful in "shaking the tree" to establish direct control over the "much stronger and more autonomous" Nicaraguan Army. - - - - Comment - - - - ¶5. (C) Gurdian's comments serve to confirm our growing concern regarding Ortega's desire to politicize and control the NNP. With this and other recent developments in the NNP (reftel),we find it difficult to share Gurdian's optimism over the long-term prospects of the NNP as a purely professional and non-political entity. We agree that the key lies with NNP Chief Aminta Granera - as long as she remains in power, the NNP will be able to offer resistance to Ortega's machinations. How long she will be able to remain in her position, however, is another matter altogether. There is no doubt that her successor will be selected by Ortega and will likely be more malleable to his political whims. A key question is how long Aminta can stay at the helm. Despite the fact that her term does not end until 2010, she has already passed the official mandatory retirement age of 55 (she is 56) and next year will have served 30 years, the other mandatory retirement trigger. This regulatory dual sword of Damocles makes it increasingly unlikely that she will last until the end of her term. TRIVELLI