NICARAGUA: RAAN ELECTIONS OPEN - SAME FRAUD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 001517 SIPDIS DEPT FOR KRAAIMOORE NSC FOR GARCIA DEPT PASS USAID - CARDENAS DEPT FOR DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM NU SUBJECT: NICARAGUA: RAAN ELECTIONS OPEN - SAME FRAUD EXPECTED REF: A. MANAGUA 1383 ¶B. MANAGUA 1367 ¶C. MANAGUA 1136 Classified By: Charge' d' Affairs R. Sanders for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The official kick-off for the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN) municipal elections in seven municipalities began on December 4 without major violence. The Sandinista Front for National Liberation (FSLN) and the Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC) each held separate rallies over the weekend of December 6 and 7 in Puerto Cabezas and other large cities in the RAAN. While a unity candidate movement has started in Puerto Cabezas, the regional capital, our contacts tell us that the FSLN is repeating the same election tactics and strategy to steal the vote scheduled for January 18, 2009 and will probably succeed despite ongoing international and national pressure. END SUMMARY OPENING EVENTS FOR RAAN ELECTIONS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) December 4 marked the official opening of the RAAN municipal election campaign in the seven remaining municipalities: Bonanza, Mulukuku, Prinzapolka, Puerto Cabezas, Rosita, Siuna, and Waspam. As previously reported (see Refs),the campaign and political maneuvering has been underway for months. FSLN supporters held a large public rally of 2,000 participants in the municipal park on Saturday, December 6. The next day, Sunday, December 7, over 1,000 PLC supporters and other liberal party supporters held a public rally in the same Puerto Cabezas park. UNITY CANDIDATE MOVEMENT BEGINS IN PUERTO CABEZAS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) According to public opinion polls, if the Liberal political parties joined forces, they could beat the FSLN and Yatama in a free and fair election. To that end, during the PLC rally in Puerto Cabezas on December 7 the Nicaraguan Resistance Party (PRN) mayoral candidate Alvaro Ramirez called on his supporters to vote for the PLC mayor candidate Orson "Blas" Coleman, a former Contra leader and a leader in the Yatama-non FSLN party (see Ref C). Ramirez had told EmbOff privately (see RefTel B) that he was willing to give up his candidacy to form an opposition unity ticket for mayor. In announcing his support for the PLC candidate, Ramirez has not officially renounced his candidacy nor asked that his name be replaced with another person, in order to prevent the FSLN-controlled regional election council from naming a new candidate in his stead. Another opposition candidate, Victor Alvarado, from the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) party also privately expressed his desire to withdraw from the race to support the PLC candidate, but has not done so. Our contacts tell us that in mid-January the ALN candidate would follow a similar strategy of calling on supporters to vote for the PLC candidate without officially withdrawing from the race, thus preventing the FSLN from illegally substituting a new candidate onto the ballot. However, our contacts also tell us that the PLC candidate has used an aggressive radio attack campaign against the ALN candidate in Puerto Cabezas, instead of Yatama and FSLN candidates, which could backfire on a future unity ticket in January. NEW ELECTIONS - SAME FRAUD EXPECTED - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Our contacts tell us that most of the FSLN supporters in the December 6 rally in Puerto Cabezas were bused in from surrounding communities, and enticed to participate through offers of free medicine and medical check-ups, Christmas gifts for children, and personal loans by the FSLN party. According to our contacts, Minister of the Fishing Institute Steadman Fagoth has been organizing the FSLN loan program, offering loans up to $5,000 for fishermen and smaller "quick" loans of $300 to other individuals in exchange for signing a list to support the FSLN candidates. (NOTE: On its face, a $5,000 loan to a fisherman would not seem a large amount, however, in the RAAN, where unemployment is more than 50% and the average fisherman earns $250 a month, it represents MANAGUA 00001517 002 OF 002 almost two-year,s salary. END NOTE) Liberal candidates in Waspam were also at a disadvantage because the Yatama-FSLN alliance controlled the local radio station and would not grant any airtime for liberal political ads. Contacts also told us that a group of up to 100 people from the Managua mayor's office and affiliated with the FSLN were traveling to the RAAN before the election to organize shock troops and guarantee the FSLN victory. This effort is allegedly led by Rudolfo Rafael Castillo, who is the second national secretary of the FSLN, and a member of First Lady Rosario Murillo's "defenders of the vote" which also include Francisco Guzman, Lenin Cerna and Francisco Lopez (FSLN party treasurer). BIAS OBSERVATION TOO - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Media reports that only two local groups may receive election observation accreditation in the RAAN contest - the Center for the Development of the Atlantic Coast (Cedeca) and the RAAN Moravian Church. Our contacts believe that both groups would be biased in their observation and that it would only serve to rubberstamp the election fraud that the FSLN party is preparing to unleash in the RAAN. While Cedeca is an NGO that has performed election observation in the past, it is closely aligned with the FSLN. The director of Cedeca, Debby Hudson, has already called the embassy asking for USG funding to support their 250 election observers and claims that unlike other domestic election observation organizations that were not accredited for the November 9 elections, namely IPADE and Etica y Transparencia, she already has a verbal guarantee of accredation from the Supreme Election Council (CSE). (NOTE: During the cable clearance Debby Hudson contacted the Embassy again to inform us that she had already secured funding for observation from an "organization that always supports us" - referring to the FSLN party. END NOTE) Meanwhile the RAAN Moravian Church has no previous election observation experience and includes church leaders who have FSLN-leaning sympathies. Even with training, it is widely believed that the Moravian Church observers would not be aggressive in pointing out election fraud. IPADE has also asked publicly and privately for accreditation to observe the elections in the RAAN without any response from the CSE. COMMENT - - - - ¶6. (C) The FSLN continues to ignore calls by the international community and domestic opposition to hold free and fair elections in the upcoming RAAN municipal elections set for January 18, 2009. FSLN leaders, with their Yatama allies are following the same playbook in bribing voters to support their candidates and putting into place shock groups and biased election observers to assure a FSLN sweep in most if not all of the seven RAAN municipal contests. Liberal candidates face enormous challenges in mounting their campaigns, but are forming unity tickets to increase their advantage. We believe that in a free and fair contest, the FSLN candidates would handily win in Bonanza, Rosita; that Yatama candidates would win in Prinzapolka; and that Liberal candidates would win in Siuna, Mulukuku, Waspam and possibly Puerto Cabezas. However, all indications are that a free and fair election in the RAAN is unlikely. SANDERS