NICARAGUA: EUROPEAN BUDGET DONORS IN HOLDING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 001489 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/EPSC AND EEB DEPT FOR USOAS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR CARDENAS TREASURY FOR SARA SENICH USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/MSIEGELMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2018 TAGS: EAID ECON EFIN NU PGOV SUBJECT: NICARAGUA: EUROPEAN BUDGET DONORS IN HOLDING PATTERN REF: MANAGUA 1426 Classified By: Ambassador Robert J. Callahan for reaons 1.4 b & d. ¶1. (C) Summary: European donors to Nicaragua's national budget (at both the EU and Member State level) are seriously examining their assistance to Nicaragua in large part as a result of the fraud perpetrated by the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) during the November 9 municipal elections. The European Commission Delegation in Nicaragua has told us they are waiting for policy guidance from Brussels on a way forward but a suspension of disbursements is likely. Donor support accounts for almost 15% of the Nicaraguan national budget. The French Ambassador, representing the EU Presidency, recently reminded the GON in a recent press interview that EU assistance comprises about 50% of international budget support for Nicaragua. So far in 2008, Nicaragua's international Budget Support Group (BSG) has disbursed only $15 million of a previously programmed $115 million because of frustration with the FSLN's lack of transparency, its bullying of NGOs, and the harassment of political opposition earlier this year. Germany, the United Kingdom and Sweden had already announced plans to withdraw budget assistance earlier from Nicaragua as a result of a realignment of foreign aid priorities towards Africa and the Mideast. Europe-funded sectoral assistance projects, which are more targeted, continue to be funded. End Summary. Europeans Reach Impasse -------------- ¶2. (C) Formed in 2005, the BSG comprises the European Commission, the Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, Finland, Germany, the UK, the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB). Unlike specific sectoral projects, budget support provides the GON with discretionary funds which can be utilized for a variety of national needs. Our European interlocutors have recently made plain, both privately in and public, that the primary reason for dwindling budget support is the GON's antagonistic policies towards civil society, NGOs and an overall lack of fiscal transparency, to include funds from Venezuela which are "off budget." The FSLN's fraudulent November 9 municipal election results, an election which was neither free nor fair and lacked international observers, has called into question the very survival of the BSG as a cohesive entity here. ¶3. (C) On December 5 Carlo Pettinato, the European Commission Delegation's Chief of Institutional and Budget Support, told econoff that so far in 2008, the Commission has not provided a single euro for the Nicaraguan national budget because of dissatisfaction with the GON's performance on democracy and transparency issues. The FSLN's actions on November 9 only served to raise Nicaragua,s negative profile in Europe. In Brussels, the issue of disbursements to the Ortega regime has now reached senior, political levels within the EU, drawing the attention of Commissioner for External Relations Benita Ferrero-Waldner. Pettinato said that 2009 looks equally bleak, and unless the FSLN takes dramatic steps to achieve a "politically legitimate" solution, budget support funds from the Commission will remain frozen. He added that given the multi-layered nature of the EU's decisionmaking process in Brussels, not to mention the upcoming holiday season, it was easy to predict a long delay in budget support disbursements. ¶4. (U) Representing the EU Presidency, French Ambassador MANAGUA 00001489 002 OF 003 Thierry Fraysse adopted a sharp, highly critical tone in an interview with center-left daily El Nuevo Diario on December ¶3. Fraysse noted that EU donations comprise roughly 50% of international budget support for the GON (about $60 million out of $115 million annually, adding both Commission and Member State contributions). He also opined that "many countries would like to have" the level of cooperation which Nicaragua enjoys with the EU. He lamented the lack of a constructive dialogue between the BSG and the Ortega regime, and added that the EU's previously pledged 2008 budget support package of $39 million was very unlikely to arrive by the end of the calendar year, if at all. Changing European Priorities -------------- ¶5. (C) Hans Wessels, Head of Cooperation for the Embassy of the Netherlands, told econoff on December 3 that he had recommended to The Hague that the Netherlands freeze 2009 budget support for the GON pending a satisfactory, politically legitimate resolution of the November 9 crisis surrounding municipal elections. Already in 2008, the Netherlands had cut its donor support by 50%, disbursing only $8 million instead of the previously planned $16 million as a result of earlier anti-democratic moves by the FSLN. Wessels stated, however, that the Netherlands would leave the window open for continued budget support to get back on track, though he discounted this possibility in the near future. While Switzerland, Norway, the Netherlands and the European Commission have made "pledges" for 2009 budget support, these are for planning purposes only and very tentative. ¶6. (C) Nicaragua's budget woes have coincided with a shift in European assistance priorities towards Africa and the Mideast. Sweden announced its departure in August 2007. Germany decided not to provide direct budget support in 2008. In December 2007, the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DFID) announced its decision to discontinue direct budget support, closing its DFID offices in 2010, shifting assistance to Nicaraguan NGOs. The IFIs -------------- ¶7. (C) So far, international lending institutions active in Nicaragua continue to maintain an independent, apolitical posture. The World Bank's (WB) Resident Representative in Nicaragua has stated on numerous occasions that the WB's mandate is to implement development programs, not to comment on democracy and governance issues related to the particular government in power. However, the IADB's representative in Nicaragua recently met privately with the Ambassador to express deep frustration with the GON. She also told the Ambassador that she was due to provide the IADB's Board of Directors in Washington with a status report in December on the political climate in Nicaragua (Reftel). The WB and the IADB both approved budget support contributions in 2008, but both loans require legislative approval by the Nicaraguan National Assembly, which to date has failed to act. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) representative in Nicaragua told the Ambassador on December 10 that the Fund is not prepared to disburse its next tranche of approximately $25 million to the Central Bank until the GON demonstrates its ability to secure financing for the 2009 budget (Septel). Comment MANAGUA 00001489 003 OF 003 -------------- ¶8. (C) The BSG's survival as an influential and united entity in Nicaragua is uncertain. Among the European donors, only Norway and Switzerland (non-EU members) have made firm commitments to continue budget support unabated, but their contributions amount to just $9 million per year. If the European Commission, the BSG's largest donor at almost $40 million per year, signals an unwillingness to disburse funds, it could have serious repercussions in 2009 because overall BSG assistance accounts for approximately 15% of the national budget. The GON could be faced with a budget deficit of approximately $100 million, by Nicaraguan standards a large sum. No doubt, President Ortega is banking on his ALBA patron Hugo Chavez to come through for him in the toughest of times. Budget Support to the GON -------------- ¶9. (U) The table below shows 2008 pledged and actually disbursed direct budget support to Nicaragua by country and/or organization, in millions of USD: Donor Pledged Disbursed -------------- -------------- European Commission 39.5 0.0 Netherlands 17.2 7.7 United Kingdom 5.0 0.0 Finland 2.7 0.0 Switzerland 4.0 4.0 Norway 5.2 3.3 World Bank 20.0 0.0 IADB 20.0 0.0 -------------- -------------- Total 115.00 15.0 CALLAHAN