Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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08MANAGUA1411 | 2008-11-20 22:29:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua |
VZCZCXRO6119 PP RUEHLMC DE RUEHMU #1411/01 3252229 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 202229Z NOV 08 FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3419 INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC PRIORITY |
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 001411 |
1. (SBU) Summary: On November 14, 15, and 18, the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) published the provisional results of the November 9 municipal elections. These results show the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) winning 106 of the 146 municipalities, the Vamos con Eduardo-Constitutional Liberal Party electoral alliance (VcE-PLC) winning 36, and the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) winning four. These provisional results increased from 91 to 106 the municipalities won by the FSLN, and include some "wins" that demonstrate the CSE's continued fraud of the elections. Under the CSE's electoral calendar, the political parties now enter a three-week appeal process, which the CSE would need to resolve before announcing final, official results on December 5. End Summary. -------------------------- CSE Publishes Provisional Results -------------------------- 2. (U) On November 9 and 10 the CSE released preliminary results of the elections which showed the FSLN won 91 municipalities, the VcE-PLC alliance won 50 municipalities, and the ALN won three municipalities. (Note: The CSE had not released preliminary results for all municipalities.) The council stated these preliminary results were based on partial returns from the various municipalities. On November 14, 15, and 18, the CSE then published the provisional results based on complete returns from the municipalities. Of the 146 municipalities that were contested on November 9, the CSE's provisional results showed the FSLN won 106 municipalities, the VCE-PLC won 36 municipalities, and the ALN won four municipalities. Among the 146 races were contests for 16 departmental capitals. According to the CSE's results, the FSLN won 13 capitals and the VCE-PLC alliance won three capitals. Following is a break-down by department/region: Department (No. of municipalities) FSLN VCE-PLC ALN Boaco (6) 2 4 Carazo (8) 8 0 Chinandega (13) 13 0 Chontales (11) 3 5 3 Esteli (6) 4 2 Granada (4) 3 1 Jinotega (8) 3 5 Leon (10) 10 0 Madriz (9) 9 0 Managua (9) 9 0 Masaya (9) 9 0 Matagalpa (14) 9 5 Nueva Segovia (12) 7 5 Rio San Juan (6) 4 2 Rivas (10) 9 1 South Autonomous Atlantic Region (RAAS) (11) 4 6 1 Total (146) 106 36 4 3. (U) According to the CSE's electoral calendar, the political parties now enter a three-week appeal process where they can challenge the provisional results. The CSE must resolve these appeals by December 4, and the Council will announce the official, final results on December 5. -------------------------- Election Fraud Continues -------------------------- 4. (SBU) The CSE's November 14, 15, and 18 provisional results showing the FSLN winning 106 municipalities was surprising, especially in municipalities where the CSE had previously said the VcE-PLC had won. This was particularly true in Juigalpa and Santo Tomas in the department of Chontales, and Corinto in the department of Chinandega. The CSE's preliminary reports for these three municipalities on November 12 was based on 100% of the returns from the voting stations and showed the VcE-PLC alliance wining all three mayorships. However, after the CSE published its provisional results these three municipal races were reported as FSLN MANAGUA 00001411 002 OF 002 victories. 5. (C) It is of note that the "winning" party in each of these three municipal races switched once the election results left the municipal electoral authorities, and moved to the control of the departmental or national electoral council. According to a VcE-PLC party poll watcher in Juigalpa, the departmental electoral council annulled 4,000 ballots, which was 25% of the total ballots counted. (Historical national norms are between 1%-2%.) In Santo Tomas, Rodolfo Silva Chamorro of the Conservative Party told us that preliminary results showed the VcE-PLC winning 70% to the FSLN's 30%. However, the CSE's provisional results showed the FSLN winning Santo Tomas by 399 votes and it is unclear what happened from the time the results were transmitted from the municipal level to the CSE. Finally, the CSE awarded Corinto to the FSLN by 110 votes, where previous "final" tallies showed the VcE-PLC winning by 365 votes. According to Luis Herrera, a local representative of the domestic observer group the Institute for Development and Democracy, the departmental electoral council simply annulled the results of seven of 51 voting stations (13.7% of the voting stations). -------------------------- Comment -------------------------- 6. (C) The government's fraud of the elections continues even a week after election day. The CSE's announcement of winners on one day was easily overturned the next day without any justification or explanation. At a minimum this erratic behavior leaves little confidence in Nicaragua's election results, the CSE, or the government in general. According to the CSE's electoral calendar, the final, official results are scheduled to be announced December 5 after a three-week appeal process. However, CSE contacts tell us this date might be advanced and these "provisional" results might be ratified as early as November 21, further questioning the credibility of Nicaragua's municipal elections. CALLAHAN |