NICARAGUA: EDUARDO MONTEALEGRE GIVES AMBASSADOR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 MANAGUA 001384 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN, DRL, AND INR/IAA DEPT PASS TO UAOAS DEPT FOR S/GAC - KIM BARDY STATE PASS TO USAID USAID FOR LAC - CARDENAS, BATTLE AND KITE NSC FOR GARCIA AND FISK MCC FOR CEO DANILOVICH, BOHN AND SHERINIAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2028 TAGS: PGOV PHUM NU SUBJECT: NICARAGUA: EDUARDO MONTEALEGRE GIVES AMBASSADOR EVIDENCE OF MASSIVE FSLN ELECTORAL FRAUD MANAGUA 00001384 001.2 OF 005 Classified By: Ambassador Robert J. Callahan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ) ¶1. (S/NF) Summary. On November 11, the Ambassador met with Eduardo Montealegre, the opposition candidate for Mayor of Managua, to receive Montealegre's evidence of wholesale, blatant election fraud by the GON. He added that despite having his "fiscales" (poll-watchers) systematically expelled from voting stations throughout the day and from the government's central vote tabulation center on Sunday evening, the opposition has been able to reconstruct voting results for roughly 95 percent of the vote in the capital, which shows a clear opposition victory. Montealegre said this appears to be the case in several other key races. Montealegre also provided both anecdotal and documentary evidence of pre-meditated, widespread fraud by the FSLN to ensure large victories for the ruling party. We discussed the opposition's planned next steps in defending the vote and he suggested possible actions the USG might take to exert pressure on the GON to ensure a credible, accurate and transparent count of votes. End Summary. Montealegre Asserts Systematic, Massive Fraud - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (S) On Tuesday, November 11, Ambassador Callahan met with opposition mayoral candidate, Eduardo Montealegre, at Montealegre's request, to receive an assessment of the situation following the contested results of Nicaragua's municipal elections on November 9. Montealegre began by telling us that during the 2006 Presidential elections, he reached a decision to concede to Ortega because his own vote tallies showed Ortega had won the election. However, he said, this time his tallies show that he won in Managua as had opposition candidates in several other cities; and said he would not back down. He recounted the obstacles that Liberals confronted beginning on Saturday morning when opposition "fiscales" (poll watchers) had difficulties obtaining their credentials from the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE). The hurdles continued into Sunday, as those poll watchers were repeatedly and systematically expelled or excluded from their voting station posts, and many voting stations were closed hours earlier than permitted under the law. He said the most problematic hurdle came Sunday evening when the CSE expelled (and in some cases detained) opposition poll watchers from the CSE central tabulation center and barred them from observing the final vote tally at the National Stadium. And Has the Evidence to Prove It - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (S) Despite the impediments erected by the GON, Montealegre's team had been able to gather the "actas" (vote tally sheets) from more than 1990 of Managua's 2107 voting stations. These tally sheets represent about 95 percent of Managua's voting sites and more than 406,000 of the total MANAGUA 00001384 002.2 OF 005 ballots that were cast in the Managua race. His team had undertaken a detailed analysis of these documents, but by Tuesday evening had already identified several serious irregularities. NOTE: According to the CSE, there were 767,033 registered voters in Managua, of which the CSE reported that 424,263 voted in Sunday's election, representing at least a 55 percent turn-out. END NOTE. Excessive Disqualified Votes - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (S) The first thing the opposition noted was an abnormally high percentage of "nullified" votes. The tally sheets for Managua show that at least 22,216 votes were disqualified; a rate of about 5 percent. Historical norms for Managua races range between 1 and 2 percent. Montealegre asserted that this was the first indication of systematic fraud by the GON. NOTE: The "disqualification" of ballots can be made for technical reasons, i.e. vote not marked properly, torn or damaged ballot, additional stray marks on ballot, etc. Ballots can also be disqualified on "technical" grounds if not properly signed by the election site officials. END NOTE. Opposition Poll Watchers Expelled - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (S) According to Montealegre, it seems that by Sunday, the FSLN believed it had created conditions and impediments that would reduce the turn-out of Liberal voters. However, last minute get-out-the-vote drives by opposition and civil society groups appeared to have had a positive effect and, according to Montealegre, voter turn out was steady through the morning with the trend breaking in favor of opposition candidates. Eduardo told us that by mid-day Sunday the FSLN was aware it was in trouble at the voting stations and began expelling opposition poll watchers and closing polling stations early in an effort to begin manipulating vote tallies at voting stations. When it became clear that even stealing votes at voting sites would not be enough to ensure an FSLN victory, Montealegre said, the party and the CSE decided to engage in wholesale election theft by changing votes at the CSE central tabulation center in Managua. Fabricated Voting Results - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (S) Montealegre told us that almost as soon as the CSE began operations in the National Stadium on Sunday, his campaign began receiving reports that opposition poll watchers were being excluded from the vote count. He said that at this point the CSE also began to fabricate vote counts. Some of Montealegre's poll watchers noticed that the CSE tally boards did not match the tally sheets for the corresponding voting stations and had the presence of mind to take phone-camera pictures of the CSE tally boards. By Tuesday evening his team was able to confirm that the MANAGUA 00001384 003.2 OF 005 preliminary vote tallies posted on the CSE website were the same as the numbers on the tally boards at the tabulation center. The problem was that the numbers being released by the CSE did not match the tallies from the original tally sheets from Managua's voting locations. ¶7. (S) Eduardo showed us 15 examples where the CSE had simply fabricated vote tally numbers that bore no relation to the original tally sheet vote counts. Three of the most egregious examples came from voting centers 6051232, 6055400 and 6055402 in Managua. In each instance, the official tally sheet from the voting station records the following vote tally for each party: Location Party/Votes PLC FSLN PRN ALN AC 6051232 95 81 1 3 0 (PLC victory by 14 votes) 6055400 112 68 2 1 1 (PLC victory by 44 votes) 6055402 75 103 0 0 0 (FSLN victory by 28 votes) However, the preliminary "unofficial" vote tally released by the CSE (and posted on its website) for these same voting districts was as follows: Location Party/Votes PLC FSLN PRN ALN AC 6051232 5 281 1 3 0 (FSLN victory by 276 votes) 6055400 38 360 0 0 0 (FSLN victory by 322 votes) 6055402 0 400 0 0 0 (FSLN victory by 400 votes) According to the original tally sheets, in the three voting districts the PLC wins overall by 30 votes. However, based on the unofficial CSE total, the FSLN wins by 998 votes. There is a total vote swing of 1028 votes for the FLSN. These are just three examples of case after case where vote tallies have been manufactured by the CSE to support an FSLN victory. What is astonishing is that the CSE appears to have engaged in fraud even in locations where the FSLN won outright per the tally sheet. (NOTE: Eduardo provided us a DVD with images of all the actas and paper copies of his samples, which we will forward to the Department. END NOTE.) What Next? Opposition Determined, but Realistic - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (S) The Ambassador asked Eduardo what steps the opposition planned to take to defend the popular vote. He said the opposition plans to continue exerting both public and legal pressure. He told us that the campaign would release copies of the fraudulent tallies to the press for publication later in the week. He also told us he had just MANAGUA 00001384 004.2 OF 005 come from a meeting with the OAS mission, where he had presented his information. He also told us that he had meetings scheduled for Wednesday with the European Union (EU) missions, the Evangelical community and asked whether he could formally and publicly present his documentation and findings to the Ambassador on Wednesday afternoon. (NOTE: This meeting took place at 2pm local on Wednesday and will be reported separately.) Eduardo confirmed that leadership and supporters of both the Conservative Party (PC) and the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) had joined the liberal alliance marches on Monday and Tuesday. He said that support from these two de-listed parties was strong and would continue. He also said the Catholic Church and private sector associations, like the Nicaraguan-American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) and the Higher Council of Private Enterprise (COSEP),had pledged continued solidarity with the opposition and had or would issue statements calling for a transparent count of the votes. He said the opposition would continue to insist that international observers or an international electoral audit take place to restore peoples' faith in the election results. What Next? FSLN Not Likely to Back Down - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (S/NF) When asked whether the mounting domestic and international pressure was likely to cause the FSLN to relent, Montealegre responded that he thought it might not be effective. He said he was increasingly convinced that Ortega and Murillo did not care about consequences or their international reputation. They were increasingly and solely focused on consolidating political power. He told us that a credible source had informed him that on Friday, November 7, the FSLN leadership held a final pre-election meeting to discuss strategy. It seems a dispute broke out between First Lady Rosario Murillo and the rest of the FSLN leadership. Rosario took the position that the political cost of losing key municipal races in an open contest was far higher than the political cost of stealing the races outright. Senior FSLN officials, including Lenin Cerna, disagreed, arguing instead that the party should allow the elections to proceed "normally" and abide by the results, even if it meant losing Managua and other key cities. However, according to Montealegre's source, Murillo refused to accept this position and ordered the FSLN leadership to do whatever was required to ensure an FSLN victory. Montealegre wondered how anyone could influence someone with "that mentality." What Next? Possible USG Actions - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (S) Montealegre said in spite of the likely intransigence of the First Couple, he had hoped the United States and other donor nations could take steps to support an open, transparent accounting of votes. He asked whether the Embassy or the Department could issue a public statement calling for a transparent and open review of the voting MANAGUA 00001384 005.2 OF 005 results. He also asked whether any Administration officials -- HHS Secretary Leavitt, MCC CEO Danilovich and Commerce Secretary Gutierrez were mentioned -- could call President Ortega or make public statements in support of an international electoral audit. Finally, he also asked whether President-elect Obama, or someone from his transition team -- perhaps Vice President-elect Biden -- might be persuaded to issue a public statement of concern about the situation in Nicaragua. COMMENT - - - - ¶11. (S) Over the last three days, the united Liberal opposition has shown an uncharacteristic adeptness at constructing a broad-based coalition in support of their position. We note their success in garnering support from religious leaders, the private sector and political parties. However, the absence of the civil society NGOs, which lead the massive anti-corruption marches in June and July, is a gaping hole in this effort. (By November 13, several civil society groups had at least begun to issue statements of support for a recount.) On the other hand, the GON continues to use resources of the state to unilaterally impose its will, be it payments to the rock-throwing FSLN rank-and-file that continue to occupy the capital's rotundas and vandalize vehicles and injuring people, or its punctilious application of legal technicalities, regardless how capricious the interpretation. We are also concerned that time is on the government's side. It has demonstrated a clear willingness and intent to use excessive force to frighten and intimidate Nicaraguans who might otherwise speak out. PARTICIPANTS - - - - - - Ambassador Robert J. Callahan Eduardo Montealegre, Candidate for Mayor, PLC-VcE Alliance Javier Llanes, Advisor to Montealegre Richard M. Sanders, Deputy Chief of Mission Chris Robinson, Political Counselor Jesse Curtis, Political Officer (note taker) CALLAHAN