2008 SCORECARD - ORTEGA'S CITIZENS' COUNCILS 1,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MANAGUA 000130 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN GREENE AND NYMAN DEPT FOR DRL G. MAGGIO NSC FOR V ALVARADO SOUTHCOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON KDEM NU SUBJECT: 2008 SCORECARD - ORTEGA'S CITIZENS' COUNCILS 1, OPPPOSITION 0 REF: A. 2007 MANAGUA 2516 ¶B. 2007 MANAGUA 2562 ¶C. MANAGUA 49 Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a legal shell game, Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega folded his embattled Citizens' Power Councils (CPCs) into the Council of Economic and Social Planning (Conpes),an existing body which advises the GON on public policy matters, and placed his wife, First Lady Rosario Murillo at the helm of Conpes. This move, coupled with the Supreme Court of Justice's (CSJ) January 10 decision to uphold President Ortega's veto of legislation that would have ended the CPCs, has severely restricted the opposition legislative bloc's options to sideline the CPCs. As the scope of CPC meddling in civil society and the public sector continues to expand, the private sector is getting increasingly nervous. Recent opinion polls demonstrate that the public is solidly against the CPCs (65.6 percent oppose them) and support opposition attempts to block their formation. The challenge for civil society organizations will be to harness and shape public discontent into an issue for the 2008 municipal elections. END SUMMARY. Presidential End-Run Secures CPCs - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) On November 29, President Ortega issued presidential decrees that placed the CPCs under the control of Conpes and that named his wife as Conpes' Executive Secretary. Conpes was established by the National Assembly (NA) as a bi-partisan organization to advise the president on public policy. By folding the CPCs into Conpes, Ortega won a measure of protection because any changes to Conpes' charter -- including its dissolution -- would require 56 votes in the Assembly, 4 more votes than the opposition bloc controls. By placing Murillo at the helm, Ortega ensures that his pet social project will continue according to his and Murillo's vision. (BACKGROUND NOTE: These decrees followed a ten-day stand-off between Ortega and the 52-deputy opposition bloc in the National Assembly over the deputies' override of a presidential veto of legislation forbidding the formation of the CPCs (Law 630). After the Managua Appellate Court (TAM) approved an injunction to block the NA's override decision a scant 63 minutes after that vote, the opposition bloc boycotted the Assembly and Ortega threatened, on November 26, to "rule by decree" (ref A). END BACKGROUND NOTE) Supreme Court Upholds Constitutional Court Decision on CPCs - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) On January 10, 2008, just over one month after the Constitutional Chamber of the CSJ upheld Ortega's veto of Law 630 (ref B),the CSJ issued its final decision, ruling that Ortega indeed enjoys the right to create the CPCs. Ortega himself announced the court's decision in his State of the Union address to the National Assembly, in a session boycotted by the opposition bloc. While the CSJ's decision came as no surprise -- deputy Jose Pallais, President of the Judiciary Committee, had predicted the outcome in a December 6 meeting (ref B) -- it is a set back for the opposition bloc which fought tenaciously to strike the CPCs from the law, and for civil society whose role is slowly being subsumed by the ever-expanding CPCs. (NOTE: A study recently published by the Due Process of Law Foundation (DPLF) on corruption in Central American legal systems found that the Nicaraguan judicial system was perceived as the most corrupt and politically-influenced in the region by a factor of nearly two. Demonstrating the political nature of the CSJ, the study revealed that 79 percent of judges believed that their appointments depended on having a close relationship with a CSJ Magistrate. END NOTE) More Cases of CPC Meddling - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (U) In the first 2 weeks of 2008, the CPCs have made the news on several occasions by inserting themselves into a variety of private and public situations: - In Leon, the CPC allegedly urged the mayor's office to accept concessions from local transportation providers to end a standoff and accused the mayor of corruption. - In the municipality of Solingalpa, Matagalpa, CPC members reportedly attacked a cellular tower installation team, claiming that the tower would negatively affect the health of pregnant women in the area. - Six female members of a CPC in Managua's District Five filed slander charges against the daily newspaper "La Prensa" after the paper compared CPCs with "gang members" and "delinquents" following the December 19 attack on "La Prensa" journalist Jorge Loaisiga by Ortega's "blue shirt" personal security unit, originally believed to have been CPC members (ref C). These women were not directly involved in the incident and none of the attackers were identified by name in the article. - In mid-January, CPC representatives unexpectedly showed up to a meeting between private sector representatives and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, prompting the president of the Higher Private Enterprise Council (Cosep) to get up and leave. CPCs Penetrating Public Institutions? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) According to both private and public sources, CPCs are gaining more influence -- and in some cases are being installed -- in government ministries and other public institutions: - Sources reported that the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAGFOR) sent out a memo in December requesting that all employees who had studied in current or former communist countries attend an orientation session to form an in-house CPC. (Apparently, turnout was very low.) - A source at the National Tax Authority (DGI) reported that DGI employees are required to participate in CPC events and rallies and are authorized to use government resources. (COMMENT: We can confirm that the DGI turned out in force at the November 30 CPC rally. With offices located near the rally site, nearly 200 employees paraded to the site carrying CPC banners and sporting CPC tee-shirts which they allegedly were required to purchase on an installment plan. END COMMENT) - Stating that "Constitutionally, it is the State that has the responsibility to guarantee the social protection of the family, something that has been violated during the past 16 years," the Minister of Family (MiFamilia) announced on January 9 that she would reactivate a feeding program for children (Painin) with help from municipal governments and the CPCs, eliminating the role previously played by a number of NGOs. - In a January 30 press release Education Minister Miguel De Castilla explicitly stated that information about the CPCs (and ALBA) will be included in school curriculum under the heading of "Cultural and Popular Organizations." This initiative follows a December 7, 2007 announcement by De Castilla in which he stated that CPCs would "play a more visible role" in public education. A CPC education committee member confirmed last week that education representatives from neighborhood CPC cabinets and committees are ramping up their direct presence in schools as advisors to school directors, diminishing the traditional role and influence played by parent councils. Private Sector Fearful of CPCs - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) In a January 23 meeting with USAID AA/LAC Paul Bonicelli, vegetable producers in Managua recounted how much progress they had made over the past decade and shared their goals of increasing exports to the U.S. and other international markets. When asked about the role the CPCs might play in their expansion plans, the producers shared their fears that the CPCs will play a more direct and heavy-handed role in their day-to-day business and ability to market/distribute produce. ¶7. (C) The reaction was similar in a meeting Bonicelli held with an outspoken participant in a USAID-funded Moot Court at the National Autonomous University (UNAN) in Leon. In the side meeting with Bonicelli, the participant was accompanied by two other unidentified individuals. When Bonicelli asked her about the role the CPCs were playing or could play, the previously outspoken participant fell silent and the two other individuals chimed in. They subsequently identified themselves as members of the local CPC and said that "everything was fine" and that "people," including the students, supported the CPCs. The Moot Court participant remained silent through-out the discussion. Atlantic Coast Continues to Resist CPCs - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) Public and private sources report that strong opposition to the imposition of CPCs continues in Nicaragua's North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN). Although he represents the pro-Ortega YATAMA political party, RAAN governor Reinaldo Watson has publicly voiced opposition to the CPCs. According to press reports, Watson is concerned that the CPCs will "alter the cultural and ethnic traditions" of the indigenous populations. He also stated that the CPCs are "not well-managed." Similar opposition has been voiced by indigenous community and political leaders in the RAAN over the past several months in meetings with Embassy officers. In a meeting last week, ex-commandos in the RAAN reported that the FSLN is pressuring hurricane Felix victims and others in poor communities throughout the RAAN to join CPCs with the tacit understanding that they will receive relief supplies, which local leaders continue to insist have been stockpiled by FSLN allies, such as Brooklyn Rivera. CPC Staple Food Distribution Raises Financial Questions - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (U) Two months after the National Enterprise of Basic Grains (ENABAS) began selling beans, rice, and cooking oil through CPC-approved (and often run) neighborhood corner stores and other points of sale (ref A, B),ENABAS Executive Director Roger Romero Ali reported an uncollected balance of 300,000 Cordobas (USD 15,000) to the Controller's Office on nearly seven million Cordobas (USD 368,000) in sales. According to public comments made after the meeting, Controller Guillermo Arguello Possey stated that Romero had not provided any specifics on the outstanding balance or on plans to ensure collection. The government, through ENABAS, was also criticized for selling Taiwanese grain donated for Hurricane Felix relief through this CPC-established network. CPCs Unpopular in Recent Polls - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (U) Two recent public opinion polls (IRI/Datexco: December 15-16 with 1,005 participants; M&R: December 26-30 with 1,600 participants) show that the CPCs are decidedly unpopular. According to the IRI/Datexco research, 65.6 percent of Nicaraguans are opposed to the installation of the CPCs and 62.5 percent indicated that they would not vote for a candidate who supported the CPCs even if the CPCs offered benefits their members. The M&R study revealed that 46.7 percent of respondents supported the opposition bloc's override of Ortega's veto and that 50.6 percent opposed the CSJ's decision to uphold Ortega's veto. Additionally, 88.7 percent of M&R respondents reported that they are not part of a CPC and the majority indicated they have no intentions of joining one. Comment - - - - ¶11. (C) With the CSJ's January 10 decision to uphold Ortega's veto of Law 630 reforms it appears that opposition legislators have reached a legal dead-end. Since the court's decision, opposition leaders have been silent on the issue and have not outlined a response strategy in private meetings. While legislators remain silent, the media continue to hammer away at the CPCs at every possible opportunity. Neither of the two mainstream newspapers have ever run a single positive story on the councils. As the recent polls indicate, this constant haranguing has undoubtedly helped to harden public opinion against the CPCs. The looming question is whether this growing public suspicion of and resentment towards the CPCs will spill over into civic action and if civil society organizations can harness, channel, and mold this resentment into an election issue. Through our Democracy Initiatives programs we will continue to engage with our democracy partners, civil society actors, and the media to ensure there is active debate on the CPCs and other issues of importance in the lead-up to the 2008 municipal elections. SANDERS