MADRID WEEKLY ECON/COMMERCIAL/AG UPDATE JULY 21-24

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 000825 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/WE AND EEB/IFD/OMA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV ELAB ENRG EPET SP SUBJECT: MADRID WEEKLY ECON/COMMERCIAL/AG UPDATE JULY 21-24 REF: MADRID 793 MADRID 00000825 001.2 OF 002 Table of Contents: ECON/ELAB: UNEMPLOYMENT JUMPS TO 10.4%, EXPECTED TO BE 12.5% IN 2009 ECON/EFIN: BUDGET IN RED FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2005 ECON: GOS LOWERS GROWTH FORECASTS, STILL SEES RECOVERY STARTING LATE NEXT YEAR EFIN/EINV: CAJA MADRID TROUBLES CONTINUE ENRG/EPET: GAS SUPPLIER SIGNS AGREEMENT WITH GAZPROM ECON/EINV: COMPANIES PLAN TO BID ON CALIFORNIA HIGH-SPEED RAIL LINE UNEMPLOYMENT JUMPS TO 10.4%, EXPECTED TO BE 12.5% IN 2009 ¶1. (U) Spain's official statistics agency (INE) released data showing that Spain's unemployment rate had risen to 10.4% in the year's second quarter, a significant jump from 9.6% the prior quarter. Since undergoing a severe housing downturn beginning 2007, Spain has experienced rapid increases in unemployment. In fact, in less than a year Spain's rate increased by over 2 full points (Q3 2007 unemployment was at 8.1%, rising to 8.7% in Q4 2007 and to 9.6% in Q1 2008). Spain has one of the highest unemployment rates in the EU, second only to Slovakia. According to the INE, the second quarter experienced a slight increase in job growth which was overshadowed by a significantly greater number of entrants to the labor force. The total number of employed was 20,425,100. The GOS forecast on July 24 that 2009 unemployment would average 12.5%. (National Institute of Statistics, 7/24/08; El Economista, 7/24/08) BUDGET IN RED FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2005, ¶2. (U) The GOS ended the first half of 2008 with a budget deficit of 4.68 billion euros, equivalent to 0.42% of GDP. This represents the first time since June 2005 in which Spain has accrued a deficit. During the same period last year, Spain enjoyed a surplus of over 5 billion euros. The deficit is expected to increase in the second half of the year, in part as the result of the government's 400-euro tax rebates. Although it was only in recent years that Spain had enjoyed budget surpluses, the news of this deficit in conjunction with other negative economic news (such as bankruptcy news and unemployment increases),has increased concern that Spain may already be in a recession or will soon enter one. (All Media, 7/22/08) GOS LOWERS GROWTH FORECASTS, STILL SEES RECOVERY STARTING LATE NEXT YEAR 
 ¶3. (U) On July 24, the GOS lowered its forecast for 2008 growth from 2.3% to 1.6% and reduced its forecast for 2009 growth from 2.3% to 1%, citing the impacts of the continuing international financial crisis and high prices for oil, food, and raw materials. Nonetheless, it maintained that the economy would begin to recover in the second half of 2009. (Comment: These changes bring the GOS' forecasts back in line with private forecasts, which have declined steadily in recent months. A GOS official told a USG visitor in March that because of the strong growth during the course of 2007, the full-year 2008 growth figure would be 1.9% if the economy remained at its fourth-quarter 2007 level. The 1.6% projection suggests that quarter-on-quarter GDP will decline during at least some quarters. End Comment.) (El Economista, 7/24/08) CAJA MADRID TROUBLES CONTINUE ¶4. (U) Fitch has revised downward its perspective on Caja Madrid, citing the savings bank's exposure to the construction and real estate sectors. These two battered sectors account for 23% of the outstanding loans of the country's fourth largest financial institution. Fitch calculates that Caja Madrid's nonperforming assets percentage will rise to 3% after the inclusion of the 900 million euros owed by the real estate company Martinsa Fadesa, which suspended payment on its obligations last week (reftel). Caja Madrid is Martinsa's largest creditor. In a related matter, a Caja Madrid executive who had recently returned to the savings bank resigned after it was revealed that he had approved loans to Martinsa shortly before becoming a senior MADRID 00000825 002.2 OF 002 Martinsa executive. Despite the difficulties, Caja Madrid's board approved on July 21 the purchase of the remaining 60% it does not already control of the Mexican mortgage bank Hipotecaria Su Casita for 342 million dollars. (El Mundo, 7/21/08; El Pais, 7/22/08) GAS SUPPLIER SIGNS AGREEMENT WITH GAZPROM ¶5. (U) Spain's leading gas distributor, Gas Natural, announced on July 21 that it had signed an agreement with Russian gas giant Gazprom to expand cooperation on liquefied natural gas projects. Gas Natural gave no details on the agreement, but the move is widely perceived as a potential step to reduce Spain's reliance on Algerian gas supplies. Algeria is Spain's largest gas supplier (both natural and LNG) providing over 30 percent of natural gas consumed in Spain. Last year, there was significant friction between Algeria and Spain over both the quantity and price, resulting in significant concessions on the part of the GOS. (Note: In the past, Algeria supplied more than 60 percent of Spain's natural gas. However, in the name of energy security, Spanish law has capped the amount of gas that any one country can provide Spain.) (El Pais, 7/21/08) COMPANIES PLAN TO BID ON CALIFORNIA HIGH-SPEED RAIL LINE ¶6. (U) A consortium of four Spanish companies are preparing to submit a bid for a future high-speed train line connecting San Francisco with Los Angeles. Train manufacturer Talgo, state-sponsored train operator RENFE, construction group Isolux, and consulting firm Imathia have been in close talks with state officials about the potential for constructing this line. The proposals will be submitted this fall, with a tender likely being awarded in early 2009. (Cinco Dias, 7/22/08) Aguirre