SPAIN: ELECTION UPDATE JANUARY 18

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MADRID 000055 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR EUR/WE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SP SUBJECT: SPAIN: ELECTION UPDATE JANUARY 18 REF: A. MADRID 38 ¶B. MADRID 43 ¶1. (U) Summary: As explained in ref a, the official campaign runs February 22 to March 7 (meaning that is when the candidates can unleash their advertising),but President Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Mariano Rajoy of the Popular Party (PP) have been busy on the campaign trail. In this cable and subsequent ones, we will attempt to give the flavor of the campaign and the issues the candidates are trying to highlight. End summary. Rajoy Leaves Madrid Mayor Gallardon in the Cold -------------- -- ¶2. (U) The rivalry between popular Madrid Mayor Alberto Ruiz-Gallardon and President of the Autonomous Community of Madrid Esperanza Aguirre came to a head January 15. As explained in ref a, parties list congressional candidates by province. The number of seats in the national congress a party wins from each province is determined by the vote it captures there. The higher on the list a given candidate is (and the safer the province for his party),the better his chance of getting a seat. There has been long-running speculation over whether Gallardon would be on the lists and which position he might occupy. As reported in ref b, Rajoy,s January 14 choice of Manuel Pizzaro to take the number two spot on the Madrid list was a blow to Gallardon. On January 15, Rajoy told Gallardon in the presence of Esperanza Aguirre that he was not going to be on the lists at all. Gallardon reportedly responded by threatening to quit politics after the election. Getting the bad news in front of his rival Aguirre was said to be particularly galling. It did not help when the news came that six other PP mayors would be on various congressional lists. On January 16 Gallardon publicly described himself as "defeated" and said March 9 would mark the beginning of a period of personal reflection about his future (he did not say he was quitting). On January 17, Rajoy defended his decision as the best thing for his candidacy and the party. Nevertheless, the Gallardon angle overshadowed Rajoy's presentation of Pizarro. ¶3. (U) The feud has implications not just for the elections but for the future of the PP. If Rajoy loses, there will probably be a battle for leadership of the party. An unwritten rule says the party leader must be in congress �00A;where he can serve effectively as the voice of the opposition (the PP's experience several years ago with a leader not in congress was a failure). The anti-Gallardon faction needed to keep him off the electoral lists, out of congress, and thereby out of the running for leadership of the party. This was particularly urgent since Aguirre, by virtue of being president of an autonomous community (analogous to a U.S. state governor),was legally barred from being a candidate for congress, a disqualification that does not apply to mayors. Aguirre reportedly raised the stakes at the last moment by threatening to resign as president and demand a place on the lists if Gallardon was given one. ¶4. (SBU) Comment: Although we probably have not seen the last twist in this story -- and we cannot quantify the impact until we see the polls -- the incident could hurt Rajoy in several ways. The media coverage has been obsessive. The battle between Gallardon and Aguirre is about who leads the party if Rajoy loses, giving the impression the PP is preparing for defeat. Gallardon is believed to have a significant following in Madrid and beyond who might abstain. To help mobilize its base, the PSOE is pointing to the moderate Gallardon,s fate as evidence that the PP is a radical, far right party. The leftist press lost no time in reminding Spaniards that Aguirre is close to the left,s favorite bogeyman, former President Aznar (ironically, if Gallardon were to resign as mayor his likely replacement would be the current number two in the city government, Ana Botella, Aznar's wife). Finally, even some PP supporters are asking why Rajoy did not lance this boil last year instead of letting it fester and burst less than two months before the election. End Comment. Trading Blows on the Economy -------------- ¶5. (U) Rajoy and the PP have made it clear the economy will be issue number one. Rajoy hit hard when it was reported January 4 that inflation was up to 4.3 percent and unemployment up to 8.2 percent. Zapatero counter-punched January 9 saying that under his government Spain had created a record number of jobs and per capita income had surpassed Italy's. He said he could not be blamed for international MADRID 00000055 002 OF 003 economic events such as rising oil prices. He suggested the PP's alarmist tactics were bad for Spain and unpatriotic. Zapatero landed another blow January 11 with the announcement that the government's 2007 budget surplus had reached two percent of GDP. On January 15 Rajoy announced Manuel Pizarro would be number two on the PP's candidate list for Madrid, behind Rajoy himself (ref b). ¶6. (U) Many observers initially credited Rajoy with having scored something of a coup as a result of the Pizarro recruitment. Pizarro,s extensive business experience presumably gives him some credibility in both criticizing the government's economic record and in proposing policies. However, Pizarro is primarily a lawyer by training, not a professional economist. Moreover, while Pizarro,s hard-line opposition to the Gas Natural takeover bid for Endesa probably endeared him to many life-long PP voters, his appointment may not play well in Catalonia, a crucial electoral battleground. Housing Minister Carme Chacon (she is Catalan) has criticized Pizarro as the man who would rather sell Endesa to a German company instead of Barcelona-based Gas Natural. The socialists are already asking voters in Catalonia whether they would rather have Catalonia negotiate budget transfers with Pedro Solbes or Manuel Pizarro. The socialists will attempt to use Pizarro as much as possible to mobilize their voters in Catalonia. ¶7. (U) With respect to economic policy, both the PSOE and the PP still appear to be in the mode of floating trial balloon proposals. Both major political parties have fairly sophisticated websites but neither party, as of yet, has posted their official electoral platform. That may not happen until well into February. What is striking, so far, about both parties, economic proposals is their centrism. Belying socialist accusations that the PP is the hands of the hard right is the PP tax cut proposal, which emphasizes tax cuts for the lower paid. The PP,s website also has a moving promise, "there are 52 days, two hours, 19 minutes and 47 seconds until pensions are raised," not exactly the immediate priority that comes to mind for a supposedly right of center reform minded political party. It will be interesting to see if Manuel Pizarro offers meaningful structural reform proposals, for instance for the labor market. Meanwhile, the socialists have offered to eliminate estate taxes, not a proposal normally associated with a left of center party. The PSOE also emphasizes the need for fiscal conservatism, although it is offering some tax cuts and additional social spending. Indeed, in a recent El Mundo interview, President Zapatero was asked whether he had learned anything from the right. Zapatero,s answer was that he had learned that budgetary stability was essential, and that was a position normally adopted by the right. Zapatero Takes on the Catholic Church -------------- ¶8. (SBU) On December 30, three Spanish cardinals, several archbishops, and a platoon of bishops participated in an event in Madrid's Plaza Colon entitled "For the Christian Family." The Pope made a video appearance. Attendance estimates ran from 150,000 to two million, and the gathering got wide media coverage. Speakers criticized the government for supporting gay marriage, quickie divorce, abortion, and left-wing civic education programs in schools. Cardinal Garcia-Gasco, the Archbishop of Valencia, said the government should "protect and defend the family, not undermine its foundations." PSOE officials responded angrily, suggesting the Church was meddling in politics on behalf of the PP. Since then, the PSOE has kept up the attack. On January 1 President of the PSOE and the Autonomous Community of Andalucia Manuel Chaves said some prelates held "archaic ultra-conservative" views. On January 13, Zapatero told a campaign rally in Valencia that "in a democracy, liberty supposes that the citizens decide who governs them, but also they decide with whom they wish to live and what type of families they wish to form." ¶9. (SBU) Comment: This is risky business. The history of the Catholic Church in Spain during the 1936-39 civil war and the subsequent dictatorship is complex and it evokes conflicting passions. Though its role has diminished over the years, the Church remains a force in Spain. Many claim Zapatero is trying to energize his base by painting himself as the victim of reactionary clerics, but if he overplays his hand he risks alienating Spaniards who may be leaning towards the PSOE but who also happen to be loyal Catholics. According to one poll, in 2004 the PSOE got nearly 1.3 million votes from practicing Catholics (those attending Mass at least once a week). One conservative paper claimed Zapatero's tactics would cost the PSOE half a million votes. MADRID 00000055 003 OF 003 End comment. Rajoy Attacks Zapatero on ETA Negotiations -------------- ¶10. (U) The Zapatero government's controversial effort to negotiate an end to the ETA problem ended in December 2006 when ETA blew up a parking garage at Madrid's Barajas Airport, killing two people. Shortly after the bombing, the government announced that all negotiations had ceased. Since then, government security forces have kept the pressure on ETA. While the PP has never stopped criticizing the PSOE for attempting to negotiate with ETA, the story may have seemed old news. Zapatero gave it new life in a newspaper interview published January 12 in which he admitted government contacts with ETA had continued as late as May 2007. The PP and the conservative press leaped on the admission, accusing Zapatero of lying to the Spanish people. The PSOE riposte is that PP intransigence has prevented formulation of a consensus national policy on how to defeat ETA. Congress Formally Closed -------------- ¶11. (U) On January 14, Zapatero carried out the rituals of closing the Spanish legislature (Cortes) and convoking the March 9 elections. Zapatero took the occasion to say his priority if reelected would be amplifying social programs and the rights of Spaniards. AGUIRRE