ZAPATERO WINS REELECTION

UNCLAS MADRID 000288 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR EUR/WE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SP SUBJECT: ZAPATERO WINS REELECTION REF: MADRID 274 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (U) Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero's Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) was the victor in the March 9 general election. The PSOE won 43.64 percent of the vote which will translate into 169 congressional seats (an absolute majority would be 176). Mariano Rajoy and the Popular Party (PP) won 40.11 percent of the vote which will mean 153 seats. Both the PSOE and the PP bettered their results from 2004 when they won 164 and 148 seats, respectively. The big losers appear to have been the small left-wing parties. The PSOE maintained its absolute majority in Andalucia (where regional elections were also held March 9). Voter turnout nationwide was strong at 75.32 percent (compared to 75.66 percent in 2004). ¶2. (U) For the smaller parties, the breakdown of seats in the 350-seat congress will be as follows (2004 totals given in parenthesis): Convergence and Union Party (CIU) - 11 (ten); Basque National Party (PNV) - six (seven); Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) - three (eight); United Left (IU) - two (five); Galician National Block (BNG) - two (two); Canary Coalition (CC) - two (three); the Union, Progress, and Democracy Party (UPD) - one (new party); and the Navarra/Basque Party (Na-Bai) - one (one). ¶3. (U) Voting was without incident although on March 7 a former PSOE city councilman, Isaias Carrasco, was shot dead in the Basque Country town of Mondragon. Although there has been no claim of responsibility, everyone assumes ETA was responsible. The murder led to widespread calls for voters to turn out in force as a way of protesting the murder and may have slightly pushed up voter participation. ¶4. (SBU) Congress is set to convene April 1. The King will almost certainly ask Zapatero to form a government. Since he is seven seats short of an absolute majority, Zapatero will have to negotiate a pact with one or more of the smaller parties. We expect he will again be sworn in as President of Government by around April 9. Cabinet changes are likely, and we expect names will start leaking shortly. AGUIRRE