SCENESETTER FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY KIMMITT VISIT TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MADRID 000218 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS TREASURY FOR WILLIAM LINDQUIST E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EFIN EAID PREL SP SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY KIMMITT VISIT TO MADRID MADRID 00000218 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Embassy Madrid warmly welcomes your visit. When you arrive, Spain will be 4 short days away from what is looking to be a very close March 9 general election. President Jose Luis Zapatero and his Socialist Workers party are slightly ahead in the polls, although the opposition Partido Popular, led by Mariano Rajoy, has gained ground. Top electoral issues include a slowing economy, terrorism, regional autonomy, and immigration. Regardless of which party wins, we expect continued growth in the U.S relationship with Spain. Since your October 2006 visit, we have increased coordination with Spain considerably, partnering on issues of counter-terrorism, law enforcement and multi-lateral policy. On Iraq, Spain has fulfilled its commitment to contribute $22 million to the Basrah Children's hospital and has fulfilled nearly all of its 225 million euro Iraq Compact commitment. We are sure that your visit will reinforce our efforts to strengthen bilateral cooperation. End Summary. -------------- Elections -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The March 9 general elections will indeed be a tight race, and at this point it is too close to call. Various surveys suggest that the ruling Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE),led by President Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, is slightly in the lead. The PSOE is campaigning heavily on the economy's growth during its government, historic budget surpluses, and growth of various social programs. However, voter confidence has been affected by recent signs that the Spanish economy is softening. The PSOE has attempted to downplay negative economic indicators, while the PP has argued the economy is indeed softening and that the PP is the best party to manage the difficult times to come. Given the prominence of the economy as a campaign issue, anything you tell the press about Spain's economy may have great political implications. ¶3. (SBU) Other major election themes include regional autonomy, immigration, and law enforcement. The PP has argued that the PSOE has made too many concessions to Basque and Catalan regional governments, is weak on ETA (Basque) terrorism, and is soft on illegal immigration. ¶4. (SBU) Foreign Affairs and the U.S. were not expected to be key issues in the elections. However, the PSOE is reminding voters it got Spain out of its unpopular Iraq involvement while the PP argues that Spain's international prestige and influence has slipped as a result of such actions. Both the government and the PP have strongly criticized U.S. and German/British/French/Italian support for Kosovo's declaration of independence, which they fear will be seen by Basque and Catalan separatists as a precedent for their own aspirations. The PP has criticized the GOS for not being able to prevent the independence declaration, which the GOS doubtless would have preferred to delay until after the elections. We are seeking to avoid being drawn into the campaign. Although they are not a campaign issue here, the U.S. primaries have attracted intense interest, and you may be asked for your thoughts on them. -------------- Economic Overview -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Spain has had one of the fastest growing economies in Europe over the last decade, with GDP growth averaging 3.7 percent since 1998. The housing boom, which was sparked by lower interest rates that resulted from Spanish euro membership, contributed greatly to this growth, and an economic milestone was reached when Spain's per capita GDP (on a PPP basis) passed Italy's in 2006. U.S. investment has long been important to the economy, more so than bilateral trade, but the tables have turned. In 2007, Spain was the fourth largest investor in the U.S., with a particular emphasis in banking, construction, and renewable energy. In the latter sector, Spain has the world's largest and third largest wind power firms, and Spanish firms are active in the U.S. solar and biofuels projects. ¶6. (SBU) Although the economy grew by 3.8 percent in 2007 and 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter, it is showing clear signs of a slow-down. The OECD estimates that Spain's GDP growth in 2008 will reach 2.5 percent, somewhat lower than the Spanish government's current 2008 estimate of 3.1 percent, but still over the eurozone average. In the fourth quarter MADRID 00000218 002.2 OF 003 of 2007, the unemployment rate increased from 8 percent to 8.6 percent. In January 2008, registered unemployment went up by 132,000 people, the largest monthly jump in over two decades. However, while unemployment is increasing, the number of jobs continues to increase as well. ¶7. (SBU) The housing market slowdown was predicted by numerous analysts and began last year. Housing sales and real estate construction in Spain decreased steadily in 2007, and this trend continues even more sharply into 2008. Decreasing levels of demand, coupled with oversupply and tighter credit, have all taken their toll. Real estate developers are taking the brunt of this downturn. As high profile collapses make the news, questions remain about the ability of developers to meet their substantial debt obligations. Some local experts estimate that 60 percent of Spain's financial sectors (banks and savings banks) go to real estate lending, a significant portion of which has gone to developers. Developer's problems have prompted calls for government assistance, though Second Vice President and Economy and Finance Minister Pedro Solbes has argued against this. Despite these concerns, nearly all Spanish homeowners (roughly 80 percent of Spanish households) continue to pay their mortgages on time. Despite a very slight increase in nonpayment of all types of loans, default rates remain low by European standards at less than 1%. ¶8. (SBU) The Madrid stock market, as measured by the Ibex-35 blue chip index, has been highly volatile and lost considerable value. At its height last year, the market reached 16040. At its lowest point in January, the market plunged below 12,000, a loss of over a fourth of its value in just a few months. Although this has mirrored developments in other advanced markets, the market's gyrations after years of gains have received a lot of media attention, and contributed to a general sense of economic concern. -------------- Diplomatic Cooperation and Security -------------- ¶9. (SBU) U.S- Spain relations were seriously damaged by President Zapatero's decision soon after his election in 2004 to abruptly withdraw Spanish forces from Iraq. However, over the last several years, both countries have made a concerted and successful effort to rebuild the relationship based on strong mutual interests in counter-terrorism, fighting narcotics trafficking and organized crime, and rapidly expanding economic ties. The real bilateral story is found in novel initiatives such as the HSPD-6 agreement we signed last September to facilitate the sharing of information between our national counter-terrorism authorities. Following the March 11, 2004 train bombings, Spain remains a continued target of Islamic extremists. Al-Qaeda recently called for attacks to recapture the medieval "Al Andalus", and the recent uncovering of an Al-Qaeda cell operating out of Barcelona has shown the Spanish that this threat is not a idle one. Neither has the decades long threat of ETA gone away. Two Spanish Civil Guard officers were murdered in France in early December by the Basque terrorist group, although the government has arrested many of its leaders and disrupted several planned bombings. ¶10. (SBU) Narcotics trafficking is another area of common concern. Andean cocaine is a serious problem here, and Colombian trafficking organizations are active in Spain. Money laundering is another serious issue. We are eager to find ways to increase bilateral cooperation and to encourage Spain to engage more aggressively with law enforcement authorities in key Latin American countries. Spain has recently taken steps in this direction. Just a couple weeks ago, the Director General of Spain's Police and Civil Guard traveled to Colombia to sign a cooperation agreement to fight drug trafficking and its related crimes through increased personnel and information exchange. ¶11. (SBU) Spain is second only to the U.S. in terms of economic and political influence in Latin America. Spain wants strong democratic and free market institutions in the region. Nevertheless, we have sharp differences over Cuba. Spain's socialist government has opted for engagement, claiming it can encourage regime elements who want change. We take every opportunity to remind the Spanish that the Cuban regime is only interested in survival and that the Cuban dissidents need and deserve the active and visible support of democracies everywhere. The GOS also has been more sympathetic than the USG to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, MADRID 00000218 003.2 OF 003 though it appears to have an increasing understanding of Chavez' drawbacks. ¶12. (SBU) Spanish military cooperation matters. The bases of Rota and Moron are strategic hubs, midway between the U.S. and Afghanistan and Iraq. U.S. planes and ships account for around 5,000 flights and 250 port calls a year in Spain. The Spanish military is pro-U.S. and pro-NATO. We need to keep this relationship strong. Spain has 750 troops with ISAF in Afghanistan and a provincial reconstruction team in Badghis province. Spain has contributed some 150 million Euros in Afghan reconstruction funds. Planning is underway to allow the Spanish to train and equip an Afghan Army company, which we hope will be a prelude to the training and equipment of a full battalion. Spain has nearly 1,100 troops with UNIFIL in Lebanon and about 700 in Kosovo. On Iraq, Spain has contributed $22 million to the Basrah Children's Hospital and a further $28 million in development funding for Iraq. Spain's total commitment to the Iraq Compact was USD 225 million euros. The Spanish Foreign Ministry says that Spain has disbursed all of its pledge except for its concessional loans, which are pending completion of project proposals. It also has provided through UNHCR over 800,000 euros for refugee and displaced persons relief in Jordan and Syria. Spain is an active participant in EU-Iraq negotations on an economic cooperation agreement that would provide additional funding for training and development activities. -------------- Conclusion -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Again, we are looking forward to your visit. While we want to avoid being an issue in the Spanish elections, we do need to remind the government and all Spaniards that the bilateral relationship is founded on strong mutual interests such as counter-terrorism and law enforcement. Interestingly, local surveys are revealing that more and more Spaniards recognize that it is important to partner with the U.S. Regardless of who wins in March, terrorists, drug traffickers, and alien smugglers will continue to see both of our countries as targets. We have much work to do together. AGUIRRE