SPAIN'S MARCH ELECTIONS: PP HOPING TO BREAK PSOE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 MADRID 000178

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV SP
SUBJECT: SPAIN'S MARCH ELECTIONS: PP HOPING TO BREAK PSOE
HOLD ON ANDALUCIA

REF: MADRID 141 AND PREVIOUS

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Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 (b)
,(d).


1. (U) SUMMARY. This cable is one of a series of reports
analyzing key issues in select Spanish autonomous regions and
the role the regions might play in the March 9 general
elections (REFTEL) and beyond. Giving Andalucia its due,
Partido Popular (PP) leader and Presidential candidate
Mariano Rajoy is expected to launch his official campaign in
the Andalucian city of Cadiz. Current schedules call for the
final two PP campaign rallies to be held in Seville and
Madrid, recognizing the vote there will be critical. While
Andalucia has been a socialist stronghold since the
mid-1970s, there also has been a perceived shift to the right
since the 1990s. With increasing prosperity in Andalucia and
a possible loss in voter enthusiasm for the social welfare
models that made the PSOE popular, some political forecasters
believed Andalucia might have gone for the PP in 2004 if it
had not been for the March 11 Madrid train bombings.
Nevertheless, polls suggest the PSOE holds a firm lead in
Andalucia, although the PP is banking on the strength of its
mayors in Malaga and Cadiz, core population centers.
Andalucia will be a battleground region and one where the PP
needs to make some headway if it is going to win the general
election. END SUMMARY.

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ANDALUCIA POLITICAL BACKGROUND
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2. (U) Andalucia is one of Spain's seventeen autonomous
communities (roughly equivalent to U.S. states). It is also
home to two Spanish military bases, Rota and Moron, the
continued use of which is a key U.S. interest in Spain.
Historically a region of absentee landlords and impoverished
workers, Andalucia has been a stronghold of the left since
Franco's death. Four-time Spanish President Felipe Gonzalez
(a Seville native) started a generous program of financial
subsidies to agricultural workers in the 1980s that has
continued to the present day and which has ensured the PSOE a
strong following. Current PSOE leader and Andalucia
President Manuel Chaves, a progressive and popular
politician, secured a fifth term for himself in the 2004
regional elections. Chaves formed the first regional
government in Spain with more women than men (eight to six).
Chaves promoted the creation of an IT development park in
Andalucia and instituted a new Department of Equality and
Innovation. Many of the bigger infrastructure projects, such
as the extension of the AVE high-speed train link from
Seville to Malaga, a new metro service in Seville, and
various road projects, received a boost under the
PSOE-Zapatero-Chaves administration. Andalucia has
approximately six million voters, with Seville, Malaga, and
Cadiz as the largest population centers (Spain has 35 million
eligible voters nationwide). In the 2004 general elections,
4.5 million people voted. Chaves in effect selected the date
for this year's national election by setting the Andalucia
election for March 9. PSOE strategists hope coincident
regional and elections will ensure maximum voter turnout. At
the national level, Andalucia has 38 PSOE and 23 PP
congressional deputies, along with 24 PSOE and eight PP
Senators. There are 109 seats in the Andalucian legislature
with 61 currently held by the PSOE, 37 by the PP, six by the
United Left (Izquierda Unida - IU) and five by the Andalucian
Party (Partido Andalucista).

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SOCIO-ECONOMIC SPLIT FACTORS INTO POLITICAL AFFILIATIONS
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3. (SBU) Andalucia experienced an unprecedented level of
development, largely based on tourism, during the last thirty
years. The coastal areas are almost overwhelmed by high-rise
condos, tourist resorts and hotels stretching back from the
beach. In contrast, the inland economy is based primarily on
agriculture. Spain produces one of the largest grape
harvests in the world; in Andalucia this is centered on wine
and sherry production, mainly in the Cadiz province. Jaen and
southern Cordoba provinces form the world's largest
olive-producing area, and Seville is surrounded by commercial
citrus operations. In Almeria province, "plasticultura"
industry (growing produce under plastic tenting) has
transformed the landscape, despite the high cost of scarce
water. Fishing was traditionally important, but fish stocks
have been severely depleted and the industry has declined.
While large property holders involved in agricultural
production or tourism industry enjoy relative prosperity,

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there are many voters who feel disenfranchised from the
"Costa del Sol" economic boom who clearly ally with PSOE
objectives and call for redistribution of economic resources.
Given the construction boom on the coast, there have been
long-standing allegations of corruption by government
officials receiving kickbacks for building permits. Neither
party is immune to corruption allegations, but since PSOE
dominates government it is more vulnerable to criticism.
Politics in the region has long been marred by nepotism,
money laundering, and property scams, from abuses of
privilege under the old monarchy to the "senoritos" or
dandified young heirs who took control under the Franco
dictatorship. Corruption and influence-peddling were also
engendered by the Socialist-implemented subsidy programs
aimed at supporting poor agricultural workers; subsidies that
had the unintended effect of institutionalized unemployment
and rampant patronage.

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PARTIDO POPULAR CONFIDENT IT WILL CARRY VOTING IN LARGE
CITIES - CADIZ, MALAGA
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4. (C) Fatima Banez Garcia, PP Congressional Candidate from
Huelva, said that her party was confident it would win
elections in the key cities of Cadiz, Malaga, Seville, and
Almeria based on the strength of affiliated mayors in those
areas. With bluster, Banez dismissed recent polling that
suggested the PSOE was leading in the elections. As Banez
said, "the voters may now be considering some of the PSOE
campaign promises, but when they go to the cast their ballot,
they will vote with their gut for PP." Banez complained that
Canal Sur, the regional government-sponsored television
station was biased (it was set up under the PSOE in the
1980s),as well as the press that relied on regional
government licensing, but she insisted Andalucians were so
disenchanted with backward education and subsidy-based social
engineering that they would turn to the PP for political
change this year.


5. (C) Describing Chaves as a "poor manager" whose lack of
creativity resulted in a moribund educational system and
economic stagnation, Banez said the people wanted candidates
who could implement economic reform. "The social security
system is broke," said Banez, "and people need to feel more
confidence about their future and the future of their
children." The PP is campaigning hard on the themes of
education and economic opportunity. Claiming that Andalucia
is being marginalized by mismanagement, the PP blames the
PSOE for political clientism and "caciquismo." PP Andalucia
President Javier Arenas is campaigning on the mismanagement
theme, claiming that the Andalucia courts are being
overwhelmed by cases resulting from broken contracts signed
by the Chaves administration.


6. (C) Asked about PP spats between Madrid Mayor Gallardon
and Madrid Community President Aguirre that captured a
significant amount of national press during January, along
with accusations that since PP candidate Rajoy couldn't
manage his party he couldn't manage the country, Banez said
that the contretemps had absolutely no impact on the
Andalucia campaign, and she doubted there were any broad
repercussions: it was a titillating story rather than a
substantial issue.


7. (SBU) According to Banez, citizens of Andalucia
self-identify as "Spanish" first and foremost. Although
Andalucia has autonomous community status within the
decentralized national government, she characterized
Andalucians as clearly invested in a greater Spain.
"Catalans and Basques are completely different animals," said
Banez. Referring back to the legacy of the Spanish Civil
War, Banez evoked the pain of division, of rifts between
liberals and conservatives in the same family, that still
lingered after more than thirty years of democracy. Banez
said her motivation for public service was to create a sense
of unity based on core Spanish values and create a better
future for her family. Explaining the PP strategy for winning
the upcoming elections, she believed that the themes of
family, unity, quality education, and economic opportunity
would resonate with voters disenchanted with social welfare
programs.


8. (C) Surveying PP mayors gathered in Seville for a
January 26 campaign strategy session, the ranking politicians
all projected the vision of a bright, prosperous future.
Crisp, pressed blue jeans, tailored sport coats and jackets
and expensive leather accessories appeared to be the party
uniform. Juan Manuel Albendea, the PP Seville Deputy in

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Congress, said that whatever economic success Spain had
enjoyed over the last four years was the legacy of the
previous PP administration, and that it was essential to
return to PP leadership to ensure continued growth and
prosperity during these uncertain times. Other mayors
reiterated that view and cataloged their plans for a full
complement of speeches and PP rallies in all the "alcaldeas"
or townships of Andalucia. Banking on the strategy that "all
politics is local", the PP counts on the mayors' ability to
deliver projects that appeal to voters and demonstrate
competent, professional governance. The PP will have its
media team railing against PSOE inefficiency and extolling
its own programs.

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PSOE EQUALLY CONFIDENT IT WILL MAINTAIN THE PRESIDENCY OF THE
ANDALUCIA JUNTA
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9. (SBU) Despite the PP's expressions of confidence,
Andalucia is PSOE country, at least so far. Chaves says, "it
is a matter of pride that when there is a problem that
affects Andalucians, there has always been a socialist to fix
the situation," according to the press. Chaves convened a
meeting of regional party bosses January 25 to plan their
campaign strategies. Echoing one of the PSOE's national
campaign themes, Chaves reportedly accused the PP of
obstructionist tactics and depicting inaccurately Andalucia's
image as dark and catastrophic. In contrast, Chaves termed
the PSOE as the party of progress for modern Spain. In
keeping with the PSOE focus on progress, Chaves promised to
bring free DSL internet service to all Andalucians and to
reach full employment by 2013. Other PSOE campaign promises
are to construct 700,000 new housing units in the next ten
years and to provide 600 euro payments to students from
low-income families. The conservative Madrid newspaper ABC
printed a list of unfilled Chaves campaign promises from
prior elections which included providing government salaries
and paid vacations for housewives (amas de casa),ensuring
that all hospital rooms are single occupancy, installing
elevators in all apartment blocks of more than three floors,
and providing a computer for every two students in Andalucian
schools.


10. (SBU) Basing its regional campaign on "deferred salary",
Chaves and other PSOE politicians hope to maintain their
voter base through indirect economic assistance including
scholarships, guaranteed housing for young workers, and tax
rebates. PSOE campaigners are also characterizing the PP
agenda as "politics of fear" and accuse the PP of playing
autonomous communities against one another. One hot topic is
the allocation of desalinated water from the Carboneras plant
in Andalucia. While the water is currently routed to
Catalonia because of "extreme necessity", Almeria farmers ask
why water is being shipped from "dry Spain" to "wet Spain".
Speculation abounds that the PSOE is punishing Almeria for
voting PP. Another hot topic is the "New Flame" oil
freighter that wrecked off Andalucia and contaminated local
waters. Andalucia PP Secretary General Antonio Sanz is
attempting to get the environmental disaster reviewed by the
European Parliament, claiming that Chaves and Zapatero are
responsible for a bungled clean-up.

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UNITED LEFT (IU),COMMUNIST PARTY AND PARTIDO ANDALUCISTA ON
THE MARGINS
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11. (SBU) During a Sunday program at the combined
IU/Communist Party headquarters in Sanlucar de Barrameda on
the coast near Cadiz, party workers were displaying the
Communist Party flag in the Plaza de la Paz of the historic
quarter. Most of the members appeared to be in their sixties
and seventies; the youngest organizer appeared to be fifty.
The building's main room was dominated by a fully-stocked bar
displaying prominently a framed print of Che Guevara. Asked
about the IU's activities in Sanluchar and Andalucia, the
chairman said that it had experienced a relative decline over
the last ten years. With regard to the upcoming March
elections, he said that the IU, and in his accounting, the
Communist adherents would vote for PSOE candidates in the
national elections. Political commentators view both the IU
and Partido Andalucista as self-imploding due to internal
battles. The Partido Andalucista is being superseded by a
new group, the Coalicion Andalucista. Some predict the
smaller parties could fail to gain any seats in the regional
legislature.

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IMMIGRATION PROS AND CONS HIGHLIGHTED IN REGIONAL POLITICS
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12. (U) Andalucia's proximity to Africa is evident in the
large number of immigrant workers established in the region.
In Sanluchar, the Saturday evening paseo route, where
families stroll and stop to visit with friends in cafes, was
lined with sub-Saharan Africans selling counterfeit handbags
and sunglasses, inexpensive artificial leather belts,
polyester scarves, or other items that could be bundled up
and transported easily. Sanluchar maintains its historic
character as a seat of the Duke of Medina-Sidonia (the
unfortunate commander of Phillip II's Armada that came to
grief in the English Channel),avoiding the condo development
geared at another type of immigrant, northern Europeans
seeking second homes in a sunny climate. The African
immigrants seem particularly out of context in quaint, quiet
Sanluchar. However, they play an essential role in the
"plasticultura" industry along the coast including the many
small horticulture businesses that flourish near Cadiz.


13. (U) As soon as you drive into Andalucia from the north,
the highway department includes Arabic script on the most
important signs. The bilingual Spanish/Arabic markers are
indicative of the vast numbers of Moroccan and other Arabic
speakers who live and work in Andalucia. In addition,
Andalucia is a migration route to other EU countries as
workers transit via the ports at Cadiz and Algeciras. The
Northern European "sun seeking, second home" immigrants also
skew Andalucian politics and budget calculations. A coastal
resort town might have three times as many foreign residents
as Spanish citizens, making it a challenge to allocate
regional financial resources in an equitable and efficient
manner. Immigration is becoming a campaign issue in the
March elections, with the PP emphasizing the need to
acknowledge the benefits, while minimizing the negative
impacts of immigration. The PP is focusing on policies to
encourage integration and promotion of "traditional" Spanish
values, citing statistics that Spain absorbs the second
largest number of immigrants in the world, after the U.S.
The PSOE tactic is to focus on the benefits of immigration
and its vision of Spain as a diverse, multicultural society
that can seize opportunity based on its broad population.

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PSOE APPEAL TO LOW WAGE WORKERS HOLDS TRUE DURING INFORMAL
SURVEY
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14. (SBU) During the four-day swing through Andalucia,
poloff polled scores of Andalucians at university or working
in the service sector. Asked about their intention to vote
in the March general elections and predictions for the voting
outcome, almost all intended to cast a ballot. All, without
exception, predicted that the PSOE would win the March
general elections. The majority said that they place primary
importance on social issues and that in their view, the PP
reflected "Franco-style" conservatism. One taxi driver
described himself as a immigrant's immigrant. He was the son
of Spaniards who immigrated to Australia, where he was born,
in the 70s and he had returned to live in Andalucia four
years ago. He did not believe that North African or
Sub-Saharan African immigrants displaced native Spanish
workers, but helped the economy overall by taking lower paid
temporary work. Asked about perceptions that immigrants were
responsible for crime in the region, the taxi driver replied
that the politicians were the real criminals with their
kickback schemes. Truck drivers taking a coffee break in
Loro del Rio, a small community in an intensively cultivated
rural area, all professed to be solid PSOE voters. With a
sanguine view on the economic outlook as it would affect
their disposable income, the truckers said that they believed
in the PSOE program that supported workers rights. Several
students at the University of Seville expressed strongly the
view that the PP was socially regressive. The PP's views on
gay marriage and abortion were cited as contrary to their own
view of a modern and tolerant Spain. Several public works
employees in Cordoba said the PSOE had best represented the
needs and concerns of laborers.

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FEBRUARY 11 POLLING INDICATES THE ELECTIONS RACE IS
COMPETITIVE
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15. (C) Local political analysts note a perceived shift to
the right in Andalucia since the 1990s. Although considered
PSOE territory since the 1970s, by the 2000 general elections
the PP managed to capture 38 percent of the Andalucia vote.

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In the 2000 elections, PSOE captured 44.2 percent, PP won
38.1 percent, IU won 8.1 percent and the Andalucian Party won
7.5 percent. According to the press, polling numbers in
2004 were also trending more in favor of the PP until the
Madrid train bombings. However, the final 2004 election
results were PSOE 50.2 percent, PP 31.7 percent, IU 7.5
percent and PA 6.19 percent. According to an independent
poll on February 11, current forecasting predicts PSOE at
49.7 percent, PP 38.6 percent, IU 6.1 percent and the
Andalucian Coalition (Coalicion Andalucista) 3.2 percent.
One interpretation of the numbers is that the PSOE has picked
up some voters from the marginalized smaller parties, while
at the same time losing other voters to the PP. Overall, the
polls indicate about the same general outcome for PSOE.

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COMMENT
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16. (C) Given the social-economic dichotomies in Andalucia,
the vote is going to hinge on turnout - will the wide range
of workers who benefited from PSOE-administered subsidies
show up at the polls in greater numbers than the increasing
numbers of middle class workers who want better education for
their children and targeted investments to create economic
opportunity? PP Andalucia hopes that its platform of family
values, unity, quality education, and fiscal responsibility
will resonate with voters and attract former socialist voters
into its camp. PSOE is counting on its traditional voter
strength with low wage workers and citizens who value
progressive social policies. Current polling suggests a
strong PSOE lead. In its effort to shift the dynamic, the PP
is banking that the strength of its mayors, particularly in
the core population centers of Malaga and Cadiz, will turn
out citizens who want a change from the lingering social
welfare model.


17. (C) The PP could pick up a seat here or there in
Andalucia. Almeria province will have an extra seat this
year, and the PP thinks it has a strong chance of winning.
Cadiz PP politician Teofila Martinez is an extremely popular
local official and the PP thinks she take a seat away from
the PSOE this year. In Malaga, everyone anticipates a very
tough race between PSOE candidate Magdalena Alvarez
(Zapatero's Minister of Development) and PP candidate Celia
Villalobos. Villalobos, a former PP Minister of Health,
could help the PP win over social progressives since she does
not always agree with the party line on issues such as
abortion or gay marriage. While the PP hopes to make inroads
in Seville, PSOE's Alfonso Guerra is very strong, and while
his opponent, PP's Soledad Becerril is a solid politician,
she can probably not break Guerra's hold on Seville. The PP
may be optimistic about its chances to win over voters, but
it will be difficult to break the PSOE's strong hold on
Andalucia. In general elections, the PSOE has consistently
outpolled the PP in each of the eight provinces of Andalucia.
The exception was in 2000 when four provinces (Cadiz,
Cordoba, Malaga, and Almeria) joined the Aznar landslide. By
2004, all eight provinces were back in the PSOE column.
Ultimately, Andalucia is a key battleground region in which
the PP needs to improve on its 2004 performance if it is
going to emerge victorious in the March 9 national elections.
AGUIRRE