SCENESETTER FOR CODEL NELSON VISIT TO SPAIN DEC.

UNCLAS MADRID 001291 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/WE AND FOR LMO LYNNEA SHANE, H PLEASE PASS TO GRETA LUNDEBERG, OFFICE OF SENATOR BILL NELSON PLEASE PASS TO SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE FOR CAROLINE TESS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER OREP MARR SP SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL NELSON VISIT TO SPAIN DEC. 12-13 AND 19-20 REF: SECSTATE 128396 ¶1. (U) Embassy Madrid warmly welcomes your visit to Spain. U.S.-Spanish relations are strong and based on shared interests, including the fight against terrorism, the bilateral military relationship, our association in NATO, and rapidly expanding economic ties. The Spaniards you meet will be eager to share their assessment of financial developments, Latin American issues, and bilateral relations. Our elections were closely followed here, and a strong atmosphere of goodwill and optimism has emerged for increasingly closer bilateral relations and cooperation. //BILATERAL RELATIONS// ¶2. (SBU) Spain is an important friend and ally of the U.S., and we value its cooperation. The fights against terrorism, narcotics, and human trafficking are cornerstones of our bilateral relationship. Spanish troops are carrying out important missions in countries such as Afghanistan and Lebanon. Spain has long fought a domestic terrorist threat from the Basque terrorist group ETA and suffered tragically from Islamic extremist terrorism in the 2004 Madrid train bombings. We need to be innovative in finding new and improved avenues for bilateral and multilateral cooperation against the threats we both face. Since winning a second term in March 2008, President Zapatero has publicly and privately stressed his desire to further improve bilateral relations. The relationship will be of increasing importance when Spain takes over the EU presidency in January 2010. //POLITICAL BACKGROUND// ¶3. (SBU) President Zapatero's center-left Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) is seven seats shy of a majority in the 350-seat congress. The opposition Popular Party (PP) also gained seats in the March 9 general elections and has retained losing presidential candidate Mariano Rajoy as its leader, though the party has suffered from internal divisions. Zapatero kept most of the key players in his cabinet in their posts. Miguel Angel Moratinos has remained Minister of Foreign Affairs. The most prominent change was that Carme Chacon became Spain's first-ever female Minister of Defense; she is described in the press as a possible eventual successor to Zapatero. //ECONOMIC CONTEXT// ¶4. (SBU) Since Zapatero was re-elected, the Government of Spain has faced a deepening economic slump. After 15 years of rapid economic growth, the end last year of a long construction boom has led to surging unemployment (almost 13 percent). The international credit crisis has aggravated the situation, as Spain's high current account deficit leaves it dependent on now-scarce crossborder lending. It is widely assumed that the economy is already in a recession, and GDP is expected to contract further in 2009. Months of worse-than-predicted economic news have led to widespread criticism of Zapatero and his economic policymakers for their upbeat predictions during the campaign and for having downplayed the economic difficulties long after many others were saying Spain was in a crisis. Despite the economic difficulties, Spain has not faced the same financial turmoil that other developed countries have seen, and no Spanish banks have gone under. Spain is emerging as one of the leading foreign investors in the U.S. in recent years with significant investment in the banking, wind and solar power, ethanol, road construction, foods, and insurance sectors. President Zapatero argued that Spain deserved a place at the November 15 G-20 financial summit even though it was not a G-20 member. He made it a matter of national pride to attend and succeeded in participating as a result of the intervention of French President Sarkozy. Zapatero has spoken often of the importance of coordinated European and U.S. action in facing the financial crisis. //LATIN AMERICA// ¶5. (SBU) Spain wields significant influence in Latin America, where its businesses have invested heavily. Like the U.S., Spain wants strong democratic and free market institutions in the region. We have sharply differing views on Cuba, as Spain believes it can encourage change via engagement with the Castro regime, but we seek the same end result. Spain is home to the second largest Cuban expatriate population after the United States, with an estimated 82,000 Cuban nationals. Spain shares our concerns and generally acts with the European Union on democracy and good governance in Bolivia and Nicaragua. On Venezuela, Spain appears to be going ahead with the sale of four ocean-going patrol ships and four Coast Guard-type high seas patrol ships; plans to sell aircraft to Venezuela were scuttled when the U.S. objected to the transfer of U.S. technology in the aircraft. Spanish-Venezuelan relations are now "normalized" following the highly publicized November 2007 IberoAmerican Summit during which King Juan Carlos famously told Venezuelan President Chavez to "shut up." Chavez visited Spain and made public amends with the King in July 2008. Spanish companies have had major problems with Argentina's government, including the nationalizations of Aerolineas Argentinas from the Spanish Marsans group and of the private pension funds, one of which is owned by BBVA. Spanish officials have expressed hope that the USG will increase engagement with Latin America in the coming years, sometimes alleging that it was abandoned after 9/11. //MILITARY AND SECURITY COOPERATION// ¶6. (SBU) Spanish military cooperation is important to the U.S. The southern Spanish bases of Rota and Moron are strategic hubs, midway between the U.S. and theaters of operation in Afghanistan and Iraq. Spain has troops in Lebanon (roughly 1,100),Afghanistan (780),Kosovo (500), Bosnia (260),and a smattering of others in various UN & EU observer missions. Although the Afghan NATO mission is not popular with the Spanish public, the GOS clearly expects the incoming U.S. Administration to request an increased Spanish effort there. Defense Minister Chacon has talked publicly of the need to remove the GOS self-imposed cap of 3,000 military deployed overseas, but at the same time GOS officials have stressed that the solution in Afghanistan cannot be purely military and that a new strategy is needed. Elsewhere on the diplomatic front, Spain in recent years has more often been a follower than a leader, looking to stay within EU consensus on issues such as Iran and missile defense. Concerned about setting a precedent for Spanish separatists, Spain has not recognized Kosovo and declines to train or fund Kosovar security forces. Nonetheless, its commitment to KFOR remains firm. Spain is supportive of U.S. efforts towards Middle East peace. Driven by the twin threats of terrorism and illegal immigration, Spain is also increasing its engagement with the countries of North and Western Africa. The seizure by Somali pirates of a Spanish fishing ship in April led to a ransom payment and sparked GOS interest in addressing piracy. Spain is planning to send a frigate and an oiler to join an EU mission off Somalia and already has patrol planes operating there. Spain is a good customer for U.S. defense items and one of the largest Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers in Europe, with more than $2.58 billion in purchases from 1997 to 2007. The Spanish military often favors U.S. equipment, and in recent years, Spain has made politically difficult decisions to buy U.S.-made combat systems for its S-80 submarines and F-100 frigates (Spain uses the AEGIS system). It also negotiated the purchase of Tomahawk missiles, a deal notified to the U.S. Congress in June 2008 but on hold due to Spanish defense budget constraints. //COUNTERTERRORISM COOPERATION// ¶7. (SBU) Spain is an al-Qaeda target and a critical player in U.S.-EU counterterrorism efforts due to its proximity to the Maghreb and a population that includes more than one million Muslims, mostly immigrants. Senior Al-Qaeda leaders often call for attacks to recapture the medieval "Al Andalus," and the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla in North Africa are a fixation for Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb and other extremists. The March 11, 2004, train bombings killed 191 persons and injured nearly 2,000 more, making it the second-deadliest terror attack in European history. The Spanish government considers the threat from Islamic terrorism to be one of its top national security priorities and has identified numerous Islamic extremist groups operating within its borders. The Spanish are actively pursuing Islamic extremism terrorism-related investigations and have scores of suspects in jail. Public opinion polling shows nearly three-quarters of Spaniards are worried about the threat of Islamic fundamentalism, more than in the U.S. or Europe as a whole. ¶8. (SBU) Bilateral cooperation is strong. Spain pursues an aggressive agenda in law enforcement, judicial, and information-sharing efforts, at least with us. One example is the HSPD-6 agreement we signed in 2007 to facilitate the sharing of information between our national counterterrorism authorities. Spain also is a founding member of the Proliferation Security Initiative. Spain has hosted a number of Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GI) events in 2008 and has been at the forefront of efforts to expand membership. Spanish officials recently have given indications that Madrid wants to deepen bilateral cooperation -- especially emergency preparedness exercises -- to combat nuclear terrorism. Our Consulate General in Barcelona is increasing its staff size as part of an inter-agency initiative to host a jointly-coordinated counterterrorism, anti-crime, and intelligence center to combat the target-rich environment of terrorist and criminal activities in the region, which has been the site of more than a dozen raids on suspected radical Islamists since 9/11, including the dismantlement in January 2008 of a cell with ties to Al-Qaeda that intended to attack Barcelona's subway system. //TOPICS YOU MAY BE ASKED ABOUT// ¶9. (SBU) Overflights - The issue of so-called "illegal CIA flights" carrying terrorism suspects to Guantanamo has been prominent in the Spanish media in recent days. The reports are muddled and contain a fair amount of innuendo. They suggest that the Aznar government allowed the transport of terrorism detainees to Guantanamo via Spain. The reports also confuse the so-called CIA flights with routine U.S. military flights via Spain (roughly 4,000 a year). We and the GOS have tried to make it clear that the U.S. military has done nothing illegal and has fully respected our bilateral agreements regarding military flights, which would include seeking the informed consent of the Spanish government for any flight carrying controversial cargo or passengers. Unfortunately, this controversy often leaves us in the position of trying to prove a negative. If asked about this by the media, we suggest making the point that the U.S. places a high value on relations with Spain and pays scrupulous attention to the notification and flight clearance requirements contained in our bilateral agreements ¶10. (SBU) Possible VP Biden Visit - The Spanish press have reported extensively on President Zapatero's lack of a meeting with President Bush and the lack of a Zapatero White House visit (until last month's G-20 financial summit). They followed closely statements during the presidential campaign by Senators Obama and McCain and their spokesmen about the possibility of meeting with Zapatero. The GOS has made clear its pleasure with the result of the election, and it may have unrealistic expectations about how soon the new President will visit Spain or Zapatero Washington. Spanish officials told reporters recently that Vice President-elect Biden told Zapatero in a November 17 phone conversation that he would visit Spain shortly after taking office to discuss the global financial crisis. The Vice President-elect also was said to have mentioned the importance the President-elect places on bilateral relations and highlighted the possibility for cooperation on Latin America. We have not heard any confirmation of this from U.S. sources and have told reporters that we cannot speak for the incoming administration. //PERSONAL SECURITY// ¶11. (U) In general, Spain is safe. However, Madrid and other large cities attract a large number of criminals and pickpockets and frequent incidents of crime of opportunity against the unwary do occur. It is best to carry only essential items, including a photocopy of your passport's photo page. Visitors can protect themselves against crime by being street-smart, alert and aware of their surroundings. Travelers are encouraged to review the most recent Worldwide Caution issued by the Department of State. As the Department of State continues to develop information on any potential security threats to Americans overseas, it shares credible threat information through its Consular Information Program documents, available on the Internet at http://travel/state.gov. Additional information regarding safety and security in Spain is available on the U.S. Department of State's website (www.embusa.es). //CONCLUSION// ¶12. (U) Again, we are looking forward to your visit. Amid the current atmosphere of increased goodwill toward the United States, we want to set the stage for continuing improvements in bilateral cooperation. There is much we can do together. AGUIRRE