SCENESETTER FOR CODEL SIRES' NOVEMBER 13-16 VISIT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MADRID 001186 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR H, AND EUR/WE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ELTN OVIP PINS PREL PTER SP OREP AMGT AFIN SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL SIRES' NOVEMBER 13-16 VISIT TO SPAIN ¶1. (SBU) Representative Sires, Embassy Madrid looks forward to your and your delegation's visit to Madrid and Barcelona. The Spanish are eager to share their assessment of political developments, regional issues, and bilateral relations with you. The recent US national election has been closely followed here in Spain, where a strong atmosphere of goodwill and optimism has emerged for increasingly closer bilateral relations. Your meetings with Spanish officials will afford good opportunities to shore up our strong bilateral counterterrorism relationship. ¶2. (SBU) Your visit will provide a key opportunity to highlight the importance we place on the U.S.-Spain relationship, especially in the fields of counterterrorism and transportation security. Spain is an important friend and ally of the U.S., and we value its cooperation. Spain is a member in good standing of all major non-proliferation organizations and regimes and understands the importance of international cooperation in our joint efforts. The fight against terrorism, narcotics, and human trafficking forms one of the cornerstones of our bilateral relationship, and Spanish troops are carrying out important missions in countries such as Afghanistan and Lebanon. Spain has long fought a domestic terrorist threat from the Basque terrorist group ETA and suffered tragically from Islamic extremist terrorism in the 2004 Madrid train bombings. We have a great deal in common when it comes to counterterrorism and law enforcement, and we need to be innovative in finding new and improved avenues for bilateral cooperation with a trusted multilateral ally against the common threats we face. //COUNTERTERRORISM COOPERATION// ¶3. (SBU) Spain is an al-Qaeda target and a critical player in U.S.-EU counterterrorism efforts due to its proximity to the Maghreb and a population that includes more than one million Muslims, mostly immigrants. Senior Al-Qaeda leaders often call for attacks to recapture the medieval "Al Andalus," and the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla in North Africa are a fixation for Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb and other extremists. On March 11, 2004, Madrid suffered bloody train bombings perpetrated by Islamic extremists. The coordinated attacks killed 191 persons and injured nearly 2,000 more, making it the second-deadliest terror attack in European history, after the Lockerbie bombing. The Spanish government considers the threat from Islamic terrorism to be one of its top national security priorities and has identified numerous Islamic extremist groups operating within its borders. The Spanish are actively pursuing Islamic extremism terrorism-related investigations and have scores of suspects in jail. Public opinion polling shows nearly three-quarters of Spaniards are worried about the threat of Islamic fundamentalism, more than in the U.S. or Europe as a whole. ¶4. (SBU) Bilateral cooperation is strong. Spain pursues an aggressive agenda in law enforcement, judicial, and information-sharing efforts, at least with us. One example is the HSPD-6 agreement we signed in 2007 to facilitate the sharing of information between our national counterterrorism authorities. Spain also is a founding member of the Proliferation Security Initiative and has participated actively during its five-year existence. Spain, which is a great believer in the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GI),has hosted a number of GI events in 2008 and has been at the forefront of efforts to expand membership. Spanish officials recently have given indications that Madrid wants to deepen bilateral cooperation -- especially emergency preparedness operational exercises -- to combat nuclear terrorism in the coming year. ¶5. (SBU) The Consulate General in Barcelona is increasing its staff size as part of an inter-agency initiative to host a jointly-coordinated counterterrorism, anti-crime, and intelligence center to work with our Spanish and Catalan hosts in combating the target-rich environment of terrorist and criminal activities in the region. Barcelona, Spain's second largest city and a key commercial center and tourist destination, is the nexus of a host of illicit activities that threaten U.S. interests. Barcelona's location near the Maghreb makes it one of Europe's main entry points for people, goods and money. U.S. and Spanish officials increasingly see the links between terrorist networks and criminals involved in the contraband of goods, drug trafficking, money laundering, human smuggling, and document falsification. The Catalonia region has been the site of more than a dozen high-profile raids on suspected radical Islamists since 9/11, including the dismantlement in January 2008 of a cell operating out of Barcelona that has ties to Al-Qaeda and intended to attack the city's subway system. MADRID 00001186 002 OF 004 //TRANSPORTATION SECURITY// ¶6. (U) Rail Security: The GOS places a strong budgetary emphasis each year on the expansion of its railways, particularly on the AVE high-speed train rail network. The Ministry of Infrastructure's strategic plan envisions that by 2020, 90 percent of Spain's population will have access to a high-speed rail connection within 50 kilometers of their homes. This emphasis is fueled by Spain's desire to reduce high levels of CO2 emissions caused by private vehicles and to improve Spain's transport competitiveness within the EU. Railway safety is a particular concern for the GOS following the deadly commuter rail train bombings in Madrid in 2004. The extremists who conducted those attacks also placed explosives along the Madrid-Seville AVE rail line less than a month later, although an AVE security guard discovered the bomb and a second catastrophe was averted. Under the Ministry of Infrastructure, two public enterprises coordinate to provide train service and safety to Spain's population. ADIF is responsible for the tracks and infrastructure, and RENFE is responsible for the trains and operations. High-speed AVE lines currently connect Madrid to Seville, Malaga and Barcelona. Future AVE projects are slated to link a number of other cities, and to eventually link Spain with Portugal and France. ETA, however, opposes the Ave's expansion into Spain's autonomous Basque Country region, and has conducted multiple attacks against the companies and machinery involved in its construction over the past two years. The domestic terrorist group continues to cite the project as a prospective target for future attacks. ¶7. (SBU) Port Security: Spain participates in the Container Security Initiative (in the ports of Algeciras, Barcelona, and Valencia) and the Megaports Initiative to detect radioactive cargo (in the port of Algeciras with anticipated expansion to Barcelona and Valencia next year). The Department of Homeland Security has a TDY team at full strength that is working with host country officials on the Container Security Initiative (CSI) at the Port of Barcelona -- one of Europe's busiest, facilitating shipping throughout the Mediterranean -- to screen U.S-bound shipments before they leave port. These officers screen cargo coming from and going to US ports and report considerable progress in working with their Spanish counterparts in targeting suspicious cargo destinations and in identifying anomalies in shipping containers. Separately, the Department of Energy is working with Spanish Customs and hopes to expand to Barcelona -- which is also the largest cruise port in the Mediterranean -- by the end of calendar year 2009 the Megaports program to detect illicit nuclear and radioactive materials. //POLITICAL BACKGROUND AND BIO'S ON KEY INTERLOCUTORS// ¶8. (SBU) President Zapatero's center-left Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) was the victor in the March 9 general election, although it remains a minority government (seven seats shy of a working majority in the 350-seat lower house of parliament) that is dependent upon the support of other parties to pass legislation. Zapatero kept most of the key players in his Cabinet in their posts. First Vice President and Minster of the Presidency Maria Teresa Fernandez de la Vega is Zapatero's political deputy, while Second Vice President and Minister of the Economy Pedro Solbes acts as economic deputy. Miguel Angel Moratinos remained in place as Minister of Foreign Affairs, and his former DG for Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Arms Control, Angel Lossada, was promoted to the number two slot. Minister of Interior Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba, was retained in his post, as was Magdalena Alvarez, the Minister of Development (the counterpart to the US Secretary for Transportation). The Defense portfolio was among the Cabinet posts that were shuffled following the start of Zapatero's second administration. Carme Cachon became Spain's first-ever female Minister of Defense. ¶9. (SBU) You have an appointment scheduled with Foreign Minister Moratinos, who is the second-longest serving Foreign Minister since Spain's democratization. One of the key players behind the Madrid 1991 Peace Conference and a former EU Envoy for the Middle East Peace Process, he considers himself an expert in Middle East policy. A career diplomat, Moratinos joined the PSOE in 2000 and in 2004 and 2008 won election as a Congressional delegate representing his hometown of Cordoba. He is fluent in English. ¶10. (SBU) The delegation is also confirmed to meet with Interior Minister Rubalcaba, one of the PSOE's most senior figures and a Cabinet heavyweight. Interior Minister since 2006, he has long been Zapatero's main advisor on terrorism MADRID 00001186 003 OF 004 issues. He is also one of the six members of Zapatero's core team that meets once a week to formulate policy. Rubalcaba is regarded as a skilled negotiator and parliamentarian. One of Rubalcaba's toughest jobs is to continue efforts to overcome the historic rivalry between Spain's principal law enforcement entities, the Civil Guard and National Police, both of which fall under his direction. Rubalcaba earned praise for how he handled the aftermath of ETA's bombing of a Madrid airport parking garage in late 2006 and -- over Zapatero's initial hesitations -- has adopted a hard line against ETA since then. He speaks some English. ¶11. (SBU) The Embassy is seeking an appointment for the delegation with Bernardino Leon, Moratinos' highly respected former Deputy Foreign Minister (2004-08) whom Zapatero personally recruited as his Secretary General of the Office of the President in April of this year. A longtime Embassy contact who projects a cooperative demeanor and focuses on points of agreement, Leon in his new post has assumed many of the responsibilities formerly held by Spain's equivalent to the National Security Adviser. Zapatero has tasked Leon with strengthening Spain's role in foreign policy in general, and with the United States in particular. Leon speaks fluent English. ¶12. (SBU) Likewise, the Embassy has requested a meeting for the delegation with Development Minister Alvarez, who is responsible for the government's 15-year, 250-billion euro plan to expand the AVE and road networks, which the GOS says will give Spain more kilometers of high-speed rail lines than any other country. In her current post since 2004, she was a surprise choice to retain the position during Zapatero's second term, but her fierce loyalty to him may have won the day. Alvarez has had a contentious tenure, due in part to delays in late 2007 and early 2008 in bringing the AVE to Barcelona, which finally became operational on the eve of Spain's 2008 election. In late 2007, the Catalan legislature approved a motion calling for her resignation, as did the national Senate. A similar motion in the more influential lower house of the national parliament failed by only three votes. She understands and speaks some English but prefers not to use it in meetings, ¶13. (SBU) In Barcelona, the Consulate General is seeking to confirm a meeting with Josep Lluis Carod-Rovira, Vice President of Catalonia, where a tripartite government has ruled since 2003. The coalition is led by the Catalan wing of the PSOE, with support from two radical leftist parties: Carod-Rovira's Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) -- which advocates the peaceful independence of Catalonia from Spain -- and the Catalan wing of the United Left (IU). Carod-Rovira and the ERC have been a provactive junior partner, with Carod Rovira causing a controversy in early 2004 for meeting with members of ETA about an offer to strike a truce in Catalonia. He resigned his additional post as President of the ERC following the party's poor performance in the March 2008 national election. Carod-Rovira has been the driving force to open a Catalan representational office in New York City -- an initiative whose pricetag has sparked public criticism -- and is expected to travel there for the opening ceremony in January 2009. He does not speak English. //ECONOMIC CONTEXT// ¶14. (SBU) Spain enjoyed one of the fastest growing economies in Europe for roughly 15 years, but growth has slowed significantly and Spain is projected to experience negative growth in 2009. A housing boom that contributed greatly to growth for several years ended abruptly last year, and prices are stagnating, construction slowing, and unemployment and inflation rising. U.S. investment has long been important to the economy (more so than bilateral trade),but the tables have turned. In 2007, Spain was the fourth-largest foreign investor in the U.S., with particular emphasis in banking, construction, and renewable energy. Since Zapatero was re-elected, the GOS has faced a deepening economic slump. Surging unemployment is at 11.3 percent. Inflation is at 3.5 percent. The economy may already be contracting, and 2009 is expected to be an even more difficult year. Months of worse-than-predicted economic news have led to widespread criticism of Zapatero and his economic policymakers for their upbeat predictions during the campaign and for having downplayed the economic difficulties long after many others were saying Spain was in a crisis. Public skepticism has been aggravated by the failure of a series of GOS measures to noticeably affect the slowdown and by Zapatero's efforts to blame the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis for all of Spain's troubles. Now that the budget surplus of the last four years MADRID 00001186 004 OF 004 has become a rapidly growing deficit, tensions have heightened over regional government financing issues and the proposed austerity budget for 2009. //GENERAL MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC COOPERATION// ¶15. (SBU) Spanish military cooperation is important to the U.S. The southern Spanish bases of Rota and Moron are strategic hubs, midway between the U.S. and theaters of operation in Afghanistan and Iraq. Spain has troops in Lebanon (roughly 1,100),Afghanistan (750),Kosovo (500), Bosnia (260),and a smattering of others in various UN & EU observer missions. Elsewhere on the diplomatic front, Spain in recent years has more often been a follower than a leader, looking to stay within EU consensus on issues such as Iran and missile defense. Spain has yet to recognize Kosovo and is so far refusing to train or fund Kosovar security forces. Nonetheless, its commitment to KFOR remains firm. Spain is supportive of U.S. efforts towards Middle East peace. Driven by the twin threats of terrorism and illegal immigration, Spain is also increasing its engagement with the countries of North and Western Africa. Spain invests heavily in Latin America and wields significant influence there. Like the U.S., Spain wants strong democratic and free market institutions in the region. We have sharply differing views on Cuba. Spain believes it can encourage change via engagement. We take every opportunity to remind the Spanish that the Cuban regime is only interested in survival and that Cuban dissidents need and deserve the active and visible support of democracies everywhere. On Venezuela, Spain appears to be going ahead with the sale of four ocean-going patrol ships and four Coast Guard-type high seas patrol ships (plans to sell aircraft to Venezuela were scuttled when the U.S. objected to the transfer of U.S. technology in the aircraft). //PERSONAL SECURITY// ¶16. (U) In general, Spain is safe. However, Madrid, Barcelona and other large cities attract a large number of criminals and pickpockets and frequent incidents of crime of opportunity against the unwary do occur. It is best to carry only essential items including a photocopy of your passport's photo page. Visitors can protect themselves against crime by being street-smart, alert and aware of their surroundings. Travelers are encouraged to review the most recent Worldwide Caution issued by the Department of State. As the Department of State continues to develop information on any potential security threats to Americans overseas, it shares credible threat information through its Consular Information Program documents, available on the Internet at http://travel/state.gov. Additional information regarding safety and security in Spain is available on the U.S. Department of State's website (www.embusa.es). //CONCLUSION// ¶17. (U) Again, we are looking forward to your visit. Amid the current atmosphere in Spain of increased goodwill toward the United States, we need to set the stage for ever-improving cooperation in the fight against terrorism. We face common threats; the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, law enforcement and military services are capable, and Spain sits in a strategic location. There is much we can do together. AGUIRRE