SCENESETTER FOR U/S DOBRIANSKY VISIT TO MADRID

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MADRID 001002 SENSITIVE SIPDIS G FOR U/S DOBRIANSKY, DAN ROCHBERG, AGNES LIPTAK E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV KGHG SP SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR U/S DOBRIANSKY VISIT TO MADRID SEPT.26-OCT. 1 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Embassy Madrid warmly welcomes your visit. Your speech at the American Chamber of Commerce energy conference, your meetings with GOS officials and climate change experts, and a press event will provide opportunities to explain USG leadership on climate change and address concerns on trafficking in persons and religious freedom. After 15 years of rapid economic growth, Spain is feeling the pain of an economic slowdown that has hurt the Zapatero government's public standing. Our bilateral relations have recovered from a low point after Spain pulled out of Iraq in 2004 and are based on strong cooperation in areas such as the military, law enforcement, counterterrorism, and renewable energy. End Summary. -------------- Tough Times for Economy, Zapatero -------------- ¶2. (SBU) President Zapatero's Socialist party (PSOE) narrowly defeated Mariano Rajoy's Popular Party (PP) in general elections last March. The PSOE gained seats in Congress but fell just short of an absolute majority, forcing it to barter with small regional parties and the leftist IU to gain support. Foreign affairs did not play a major role in the campaign, but the PSOE reminded voters that it removed Spain's troops from an unpopular war in Iraq. Zapatero's new cabinet has more female ministers (9) than male (8), including Spain's first female Defense Minister, Carme Chacon. ¶3. (SBU) Since Zapatero was re-elected, a deepening economic slump that the GOS has been unable to stop has increased public frustration. After 15 years of rapid economic growth, the end last year of a long construction boom has led to surging unemployment, now likely over 11 percent. Inflation is above 4 percent, the economy may already be contracting, and 2009 is expected to be an even more difficult year. Although Spaniards were briefly cheered by a summer of unprecedented sports success, the public mood was further dampened by an August 20 Madrid airplane crash that killed ¶154. ¶4. (SBU) After months of worse-than-predicted economic news, Zapatero and his economic policymakers are widely criticized for their predictions during the campaign and for having denied the economic difficulties long after many others were calling them a crisis. Public skepticism has been aggravated by a series of initiatives that have not noticeably halted the slowdown and by Zapatero's efforts to blame U.S. financial woes (the international credit crunch aggravated Spain's troubles but came after the housing slump began). Now that the budget surplus of the last four years has become a rapidly growing deficit, tensions have heightened over regional government financing issues and the 2009 budget. ¶5. (U) The medium-term economic picture remains reasonably favorable. Spain has the world's eighth largest economy and is the second largest international tourism destination and eighth largest auto manufacturer. Its per capita GDP is expected to pass Italy's in 2010. U.S. investment has long been important to the Spanish economy (more so than bilateral trade),and U.S. firms employ over 220,000 Spaniards. Spanish investment in the U.S. has surged in the last few years, particularly in banking, toll road construction, and renewable energy. In 2007, Spain was the fourth largest foreign investor in the U.S. -------------- Renewable Energy Increasingly Important -------------- ¶6. (U) Renewable energy is an increasingly important part of the Spanish economy and of our bilateral relationship. Abundant wind and sun and generous feed-in tariffs have helped make Spain a world leader in wind and solar power. More than 10 percent of the country's electricity is generated by wind, and an additional 10 percent comes from hydro, solar, and other renewable sources. Spanish companies, including the world's largest (Iberdrola) and third largest (Acciona) producers of wind power, own wind farms in at least 14 U.S. states and continue to expand. They also own four wind turbine manufacturing plants in Iowa and Pennsylvania. Spanish companies have significant solar and biofuels investments in the U.S. as well, and U.S. companies such as AES are investing in Spain's solar market. ¶7. (U) This past February, you met with a delegation of Spanish government and business leaders on renewable energy. Among them were several people you will see on this trip, MADRID 00001002 002 OF 004 including Ambassador Aguirre, American Chamber of Commerce Chairman Jaime Malet, GOS Secretary of State for Climate Change Teresa Ribera, and Acciona official Carmen Becerril. The group visited Washington and Denver for meetings with federal, Senate, and state officials, business representatives, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. One of our aims in organizing the mission was to emphasize the links between climate change policy and the renewable energy industry, and we recommend that you highlight these links at the American Chamber conference and your press event. Spain also sent a delegation to WIREC, although the event's timing a few days before national elections prevented higher-level GOS representation. ¶8. (SBU) An issue that you should be prepared to address is GOS and corporate concern over the uncertainty of U.S. federal investment and production tax credits for renewable energy set to expire December 31. The GOS and energy companies have raised this with Senate and House members and USG officials, saying it is the most important issue affecting Spanish companies' investment plans. Your interlocutors would appreciate any information you can provide about the prospects for renewal of these credits. -------------- Climate Change -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Climate change is one of the signature issues of the Zapatero Administration. The socialist government has firmly embraced the Kyoto Protocol, under which Spain committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 15 percent above 1990 levels by 2012. Despite generally popular initiatives to promote renewables and energy efficiency and to implement EU commitments, emissions are currently 50 percent above 1990 levels, in part because of years of rapid economic growth. Spain is the EU country most out of compliance with Kyoto, and will not meet its 2012 commitment. That said, Zapatero remains committed to fighting climate change and, despite the economic slowdown, may be willing to commit to costly actions if necessary. ¶10. (U) After Zapatero,s March re-election, the former Ministry of Environment was merged into the former Ministry of Agriculture, creating a super ministry responsible for environment and climate change, agriculture, rural development and marine affairs. Previous Agriculture Minister Elena Espinosa was given charge of the new ministry, but the profile of climate change issues was increased. Lead international climate negotiator Teresa Ribera, with whom you will meet, is now a Secretary of State, equivalent to an Under Secretary. Spanish officials were pleased that Dr. Jose Manuel Moreno was elected in Geneva earlier this month to the IPCC,s Working Group II, the group being co-chaired by U.S. candidate Chris Field. You will see Dr. Moreno at the Ambassador,s climate change breakfast September 30. ¶11. (SBU) Ribera has said informally that she favors establishing aggressive emissions reductions goals to ensure progress even if they are not fully attained. The GOS wants to be taken seriously on climate change and demonstrate its leadership on the issue, and GOS officials have expressed repeatedly their frustration over not being included in the USG-initiated Major Economies Meeting process. The USG and GOS obviously differ on climate change policy and approach, but we have made gains in developing positive relationships, communicating the USG position and providing perspective. After the December 2007 Bali conference, Ribera praised the USG for its leadership. We recommend you emphasize the USG's commitment to combating climate change without jeopardizing economic growth, the need to include commitments by developing countries, and our support for technological research. -------------- Trafficking in Persons -------------- ¶12. (SBU) We hope you will raise trafficking issues when you see Deputy Foreign Minister Angel Sanchez de Lossada. Spain continues to merit a Tier 1 country ranking in the annual TIP report and fully complies with the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking. Spain is both a destination and transit country for people trafficked for the purpose of sexual exploitation and, to a lesser degree, forced labor. Trafficking victims arrive in Spain from three major regions: Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. More than three-quarters of all trafficked women come from five countries: Romania, Russia, MADRID 00001002 003 OF 004 Brazil, Colombia and Nigeria. Victims trafficked for forced labor purposes are primarily found in the agricultural, construction, and domestic sectors. ¶13. (SBU) To further expand its anti-trafficking efforts, and under the aegis of the powerful Vice President Teresa Fernandez de la Vega, Spain has developed a national integral plan against trafficking in persons. The plan, which includes a government pledge of almost $45 million per year and over 200 police to aid in enforcement of anti-trafficking efforts, is reportedly ready for adoption by the Council of Ministers but is being held pending announcement of a larger human rights initiative by the Spanish Government, of which anti-trafficking is a part. We understand from our Spanish interlocutors that the human rights plan, along with the anti-trafficking plan, will be announced later this year. We recommend you raise the issue with Sanchez de Lossada, commending GOS efforts and urging adoption of the plan at the earliest possible date. -------------- Religious Freedom and Equality -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Spain's record on religious freedom and equality is a good one, but there is one issue (which has captured some U.S. Congressional attention) which we recommend you raise in your meeting with Sanchez de Lossada. We have been encouraging Spain to grant tax treatment to Mormons, Jehovah's Witnesses, and Buddhists equivalent to those enjoyed by other religions. The regulatory process is complicated, with the first step being a religion's recognition as 'well-known and deeply rooted.' This status is known in Spanish as 'notorio arraigo.' Mormons, Jehovah's Witnesses, and Buddhists now have this status, but concession of tax benefits and other privileges has been delayed because the Spanish Government is preparing a legal change that will automatically give all notorio arraigo religions the same tax and benefit status rather than requiring each to petition for the benefits individually. This would be a step forward, but unfortunately the previous Congress adjourned without acting. We are now encouraging the GOS to get the measure back on the congressional calendar. The issue involves both the Ministry of Justice and (because of the revenue implications) the Ministry of Finance. -------------- Diplomatic Cooperation and Security -------------- ¶15. (SBU) U.S-Spain relations were seriously damaged by President Zapatero's decision soon after his election in 2004 to abruptly withdraw Spanish forces from Iraq. However, over the last several years, both countries have made a concerted and successful effort to rebuild the relationship based on strong mutual interests in counter-terrorism, fighting narcotics trafficking and organized crime, and rapidly expanding economic ties. The real bilateral story is found in novel initiatives such as the HSPD-6 agreement we signed last September to facilitate the sharing of information between our national counter-terrorism authorities. Following the March 11, 2004 train bombings, Spain remains a target of Islamic extremists. Al-Qaeda leaders often call for the recapture of the medieval "Al Andalus," and the uncovering in January of a cell allegedly sympathetic to Al-Qaeda and operating out of Barcelona has shown the public that this threat is not an idle one. ¶16. (SBU) Spain is no stranger to terrorism, having fought the domestic Basque terrorist group ETA for almost 40 years. ETA has been weakened by a series of arrests stemming in part from improved cooperation from France. However, it retains the capacity for violence. It has carried out several small-scale bombings and killed two people this year. ¶17. (SBU) Narcotics trafficking is another area of common concern and excellent cooperation. Spanish authorities acknowledge that Andean cocaine is a serious problem here, and Colombian trafficking organizations are active in Spain. Money laundering is another serious issue. We are increasing bilateral cooperation and encouraging Spain to continue engaging more aggressively with law enforcement authorities in key Latin American countries. ¶18. (SBU) Spain, second only to the U.S. in terms of Investment in Latin America, is actively engaged in the region. In addition to cultural and historical ties, Spain MADRID 00001002 004 OF 004 shares our interest in a strong democratic and free market institutions in the region. Regarding Cuba, we share with Spain the objective of a peaceful transition to democracy but differ markedly on how to achieve this end. Spain's socialist government has opted for engagement, claiming it can encourage regime elements who want change. It has claimed that Cuba's willingness to hold dialogue with the EU is a result of successful GOS efforts to improve EU-Cuban relations. We take every opportunity to remind the Spanish that the Cuban regime is only interested in survival and that the Cuban dissidents need and deserve the active and visible support of democracies everywhere. ¶19. (SBU) Spanish military cooperation matters. The bases of Rota and Moron are strategic hubs, midway between the U.S. and Afghanistan and Iraq. U.S. planes and ships account for around 5,000 flights and 250 port calls a year in Spain. Spain has nearly 800 personnel in Afghanistan and runs a provincial reconstruction team in Badghis province. Spain has contributed some 150 million Euros in Afghan reconstruction funds. Planning is underway to allow the Spanish to train and equip an Afghan Army company, which we hope will be a prelude to the training and equipment of a full battalion. Spain has nearly 1,100 troops with UNIFIL in Lebanon and about 700 in Kosovo. On Iraq, Spain has contributed $22 million to the Basrah Children's Hospital and a further $28 million in development funding for Iraq. Spain's total commitment to the Iraq Compact was USD 225 million. It also has provided through UNHCR over 800,000 euros for refugee and displaced persons relief in Jordan and Syria. -------------- Personal Security -------------- ¶20. (U) In general, Spain is safe. However, Madrid, Barcelona and other large cities in Spain attract a large number of criminals and pickpockets and frequent incidents of crime of opportunity against the unwary do occur. It is best to carry only essential items including a photocopy of your passport's photo page. Visitors can protect themselves against crime by being street-smart, alert and aware of their surroundings. Travelers are encouraged to review the most recent Worldwide Caution issued by the Department of State. As the Department of State continues to develop information on any potential security threats to Americans overseas, it shares credible threat information through its Consular Information Program documents, available on the Internet at http://travel/state.gov. Additional information regarding safety and security in Spain is available on the U.S. Department of State's website (www.embusa.es). Aguirre