LUXEMBOURG'S GAERC VIEWS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUXEMBOURG 000240 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2018 TAGS: EUN PHUM PREL PGOV LU SUBJECT: LUXEMBOURG'S GAERC VIEWS REF: A. STATE 96598 ¶B. STATE 97574 ¶C. LUXEMBOURG 236 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission, Steven H. Kraft, for reasons 1. 4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA Political Director Stephan Muller relayed Luxembourg response to reftel demarches on 12 September. Muller briefly addressed Turkey and Zimbabwe, reserving the meat of his comments for Serbia and Georgia. On Serbia, the GoL believes it is time to unfreeze Serbia's SAA with the European Union, but fears other members' opposition will keep it "in the fridge." Regarding Georgia, Luxembourg stands ready to commit both personnel and resources to an ESDP mission. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Muller emphasized FM Jean Asselborn's pro-Turkey leaning. He underlined the positive role Luxembourg and FM Asselborn have played in the mediation efforts between Iran and Syria. Post also notes that GoL's Ministry of Trade just returned from a highly-publicized trade mission to Turkey, deemed by all media outlets to be a resounding success. ¶3. (U) Muller indicated that the GAERC conversation on Zimbabwe will be a short discussion. Due to the latest developments in Harare, Muller expects that a proposed signing ceremony between Mugabe and the opposition, scheduled for the morning of 15 September, could render moot the GAERC discussion. Remaining positive, albeit realistic, Muller advised a wait-and-see approach on Zimbabwe. ¶4. (C) On Serbia, Muller said that the primary discussion among the European Foreign Ministers will focus on whether or not the arrest of Radovan Karadzic is enough to unfreeze the EU's interim agreement with Serbia. Luxembourg, Muller said, is in favor of unfreezing movement on the Stabilization and Association Accord (SAA),believing that Serbia should get some recognition for the Karadzic arrest. Proceeding with the SAA would encourage the Serbians to stay the line on Western integration and motivate them to move more rapidly on the arrest of the two remaining fugitives sought by the ICTY. Muller added, however, that he does not believe the SAA will be green-lighted at this GAERC, most likely due to Dutch opposition. Muller did not address Serbia's resolution requesting an advisory opinion from the ICJ on Kosovo's declaration of independence (see Ref C for a readout on Luxembourg's position). ¶5. (C) Muller called Georgia the "main course" of the GAERC. He said the discussion will focus on the implementation of the ceasefire agreement signed between Russia and Georgia on 12 August and reinforced on 8 September. According to Muller, the EU will finalize details on an ESDP mission to Georgia during this meeting, and that Luxembourg will contribute two policemen to the mission. Muller also indicated that Luxembourg stands ready to charter a Cargolux airplane to help transport material to the region, if doing so would prove useful to the EU Secretariat. WAGNER