C O N F I D E N T I A L LUXEMBOURG 000240

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2018
TAGS: EUN PHUM PREL PGOV LU
SUBJECT: LUXEMBOURG'S GAERC VIEWS

REF: A. STATE 96598

B. STATE 97574

C. LUXEMBOURG 236

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission, Steven H. Kraft, for reasons 1.
4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA Political Director Stephan Muller
relayed Luxembourg response to reftel demarches on 12
September. Muller briefly addressed Turkey and Zimbabwe,
reserving the meat of his comments for Serbia and Georgia.
On Serbia, the GoL believes it is time to unfreeze Serbia's
SAA with the European Union, but fears other members'
opposition will keep it "in the fridge." Regarding Georgia,
Luxembourg stands ready to commit both personnel and
resources to an ESDP mission. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Muller emphasized FM Jean Asselborn's pro-Turkey
leaning. He underlined the positive role Luxembourg and FM
Asselborn have played in the mediation efforts between Iran
and Syria. Post also notes that GoL's Ministry of Trade just
returned from a highly-publicized trade mission to Turkey,
deemed by all media outlets to be a resounding success.


3. (U) Muller indicated that the GAERC conversation on
Zimbabwe will be a short discussion. Due to the latest
developments in Harare, Muller expects that a proposed
signing ceremony between Mugabe and the opposition, scheduled
for the morning of 15 September, could render moot the GAERC
discussion. Remaining positive, albeit realistic, Muller
advised a wait-and-see approach on Zimbabwe.


4. (C) On Serbia, Muller said that the primary discussion
among the European Foreign Ministers will focus on whether or
not the arrest of Radovan Karadzic is enough to unfreeze the
EU's interim agreement with Serbia. Luxembourg, Muller said,
is in favor of unfreezing movement on the Stabilization and
Association Accord (SAA), believing that Serbia should get
some recognition for the Karadzic arrest. Proceeding with
the SAA would encourage the Serbians to stay the line on
Western integration and motivate them to move more rapidly on
the arrest of the two remaining fugitives sought by the ICTY.
Muller added, however, that he does not believe the SAA will
be green-lighted at this GAERC, most likely due to Dutch
opposition. Muller did not address Serbia's resolution
requesting an advisory opinion from the ICJ on Kosovo's
declaration of independence (see Ref C for a readout on
Luxembourg's position).


5. (C) Muller called Georgia the "main course" of the
GAERC. He said the discussion will focus on the
implementation of the ceasefire agreement signed between
Russia and Georgia on 12 August and reinforced on 8
September. According to Muller, the EU will finalize details
on an ESDP mission to Georgia during this meeting, and that
Luxembourg will contribute two policemen to the mission.
Muller also indicated that Luxembourg stands ready to charter
a Cargolux airplane to help transport material to the region,
if doing so would prove useful to the EU Secretariat.

WAGNER