UNCLAS LUSAKA 000950

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: ELECTION: NO CLEAR LEADER IN WESTERN PROVINCE


1. (SBU) With election day a scant five weeks away, none of
the presidential candidates has a clear lead in Western
Province. Provincial leaders and local politicians (who owe
their positions to ruling party largesse and connections),
told emboffs that Acting President Rupiah Banda would easily
take Western Province in the October 30 presidential
by-election. However, a cross-section of Western voters do
not agree. Although Michael Sata's support base is
relatively small, he has not yet begun campaigning in Western
Province. United Party for National Development (UPND)
Hakainde Hichilema's message seems to resonate with educated
voters; others seem supportive of "anyone but Banda."


2. (SBU) The Lozi King or "Litunga" has enormous influence
over the population of Western Province, a culturally
distinct and remote part of Zambia. During Charge's recent
audience with the Lutunga, the Barotse monarch motioned to
his cabinet and reported "when people want to know for whom
to vote, they ask these men." Several contacts in the
provincial capital Mongu told Charge that "the palace had
already spoken--we are to vote for Hichelema," but when
approached to confirm this, a close advisor to the King
denied this: "We have not yet spoken." The King's advisors
are unanimous in their disdain for the mercurial and populist
Michael Sata. The King's Chief of Staff believes that Sata's
Patriotic Front party will make few inroads in Western
Province.


3. (U) During the 2001 presidential election, President
Mwanawasa lost to UPND candidate Anderson Mazoka in Western
Province, pulling in less than one-third of the vote.
However, by 2006, Mwanawasa had reached an accommodation with
the Lozi people and with the Litunga. The Barotse palace
supported his re-election bid, and Mwanawasa won the
province, taking over three-fourths of the vote. Local
observers tell emboffs that MMD should not take Western
Province support for granted this time; the 2006 votes were
for Mwanawasa personally, not the ruling party.


4. (SBU) Strangely, the most popular presidential candidate
among Embassy interlocutors was Finance Minister Magande.
Emboffs reminded interlocutors--from Lozi ministers and NGO
managers to restaurant staff and street vendors--that Magande
is not a contender, having failed to secure the nomination of
his party; this comment remarkably failed to dampen
enthusiasm for the Finance Minister. Magande's popularity
does not translate to support for the MMD's candidate, Acting
President Rupiah Banda.


5. (SBU) Comment: Embassy interlocutors also expressed some
wariness of electing another elderly leader. This reticence
works against septuagenarians Sata and Banda. It seems
logical that those who support and would wish to vote for
Magande--a shrewd and articulate technocrat with excellent
economic credentials--would find Hichilema the most
attractive among the remaining choices. (Note: A senior
UPND advisor told emboffs recently that part of Hichilema's
election strategy is to appeal to would-be Magande voters.)
Like Magande, Hichilema also hails from Southern Province,
whose Tonga tribe traditionally enjoys strong affiliation
with the Lozi. The possibility (or misconception) that the
Litunga has already proclaimed Hichilema the preferred
candidate also provides UPND much needed momentum outside the
urban, cosmopolitan "line of rail." Although a sparsely
populated part of the country, Western Province's relevance
in a potentially close election should not be discounted.

KOPLOVSKY